FRUSTRATED ETHIOPIA TO LEAVE SOMALIA AT YEAR'S END

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003145 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC KPKO ET SO SUBJECT: FRUSTRATED ETHIOPIA TO LEAVE SOMALIA AT YEAR'S END Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin called in the U.S. and UK Ambassadors on November 17 to discuss the Somalia crisis. Seyoum said that Ethiopia plans to depart Somalia in 45 days, by the end of December, but will support African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces until then. Seyoum said that Ethiopia is frustrated by Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Yusuf's refusal to abide by the InterGovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) declaration from the October 27-29 IGAD summit in Nairobi, as well as the Addis Ababa and Djibouti accords. Seyoum described his November 14 meeting with President Yusuf as "useless" because Yusuf refused to work with TFG Prime Minister Nur Adde on the selection of a cabinet prior to the November 15 deadline. Adding to Ethiopia's angst is the severe criticism from human rights groups and the press against Ethiopia in Somalia. Seyoum said it is probably too late to stabilize Somalia, although he added that a remote chance still existed if the international community: 1) declares clear political support and commits financial resources to AMISOM; 2) provides financial support for the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) for AMISOM protection; and 3) holds Yusuf to the agreements he has signed, including his commitment to work with the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS). Seyoum noted that, as an alternative to the final point, the international community could support Nur Adde taking the disputed list of cabinet members directly to the TFG parliament for approval, leaving Yusuf no option but to capitulate, but he acknowledged that this process would be "messy" and a parliamentary quorum would be needed. End Summary. Ethiopia's Frustrations -------------- ¶2. (C) Foreign Minister Seyoum told the UK and American Ambassadors that Ethiopia is near "the end of the line" on Somalia and will withdraw its troops by the end of the year because of the deep frustration over the lack of progress. Seyoum explained that he met twice with President Yusuf in Addis on Friday, November 14 to move Yusuf to deal with Prime Minister Nur Adde in the selection of a cabinet prior to the November 15 deadline, per the late October IGAD declaration. Yusuf reportedly refused and called the Nairobi IGAD declaration "illegal" and non-binding. Seyoum said he pressed Yusuf to honor the Djibouti, Addis and Nairobi accords that Yusuf has signed. Yusuf countered by stating that the agreements he signed were not the ones he first read, and that the texts had been altered. Seyoum said he could not get through to Yusuf and the meeting concluded without a commitment by Yusuf to meet with Prime Minister Nur Adde on cabinet selection. Following the unproductive meeting between Seyoum and Yusuf, Prime Minister Meles refused to meet with Yusuf. ¶3. (C) Seyoum complained that Yusuf is now in Libya, rather than Baidoa "where he should be" working with the TFG Parliament to resolve Somalia's problems. Seyoum noted that Yusuf is more interested in "outmaneuvering" Nur Adde than creating conditions for national reconciliation. The ongoing ARS meetings in Djibouti can be a highly positive step toward strengthening the TFG and making progress on reconciliation, Seyoum added, remarking that Yusuf appears to view the ARS's willingness to negotiate as an obstacle rather than as a positive development. The Foreign Minister made it clear, however, that Ethiopia is not/not in favor of "regime change." No matter how frustrating it is to work with Yusuf, the decision to remove him must be a Somali process, Seyoum said. Seyoum admitted that Ethiopia pressed Yusuf to consider resigning due to his age and health, but Yusuf refused and the Ethiopians backed off. Ethiopian Forces to Leave by Year's End -------------- ¶4. (C) Seyoum told the Ambassadors that ENDF Chief of Defense Staff (CHOD) General Samora has issued orders for ENDF forces ADDIS ABAB 00003145 002 OF 002 to prepare to leave Somalia within 45 days, by the end of December. Seyoum said he saw no alternative to this decision, not only because of the frustrations of dealing with Yusuf, but also the lack of international community support, specifically the lack of financial support for AMISOM. Seyoum stated that there remains a remote possibility that Ethiopian forces will stay in Somalia, but he doubts it will be possible. The international community would need to declare clearly political support for AMISOM and also recognize the ENDF's role in providing force protection for AMISOM. Financial support for the international community for both AMISOM and the ENDF would also be necessary. Likewise, the international community would need to press Yusuf to abide by the agreements he has signed, and support ARS-TFG discussions on a unity government. Seyoum noted that, as an alternative, the international community could support Nur Adde's taking the list of cabinet members directly to the TFG parliament for approval, leaving Yusuf no option but to capitulate, but he acknowledged that this process would be "messy" and a quorum would be needed in parliament. ¶5. (C) Seyoum spoke passionately about Ethiopia's deep frustration over the severe criticism it has received from human rights groups and the press for its intervention in Somalia, even as the international community privately calls for Ethiopian forces to remain in Somalia until more AMISOM troops arrive, in order to avoid creating a political and military vacuum. Ethiopia cannot carry the burden of Somalia alone, Seyoum stated, and wants greater international community participation and support, as well as recognition of Ethiopia's positive role. The Regional Threat -------------- ¶6. (C) Finally, Seyoum cautioned that if Ethiopian forces were to leave Somalia, al Shabaab and other extremist groups would fight among themselves, as well as the clans, and, for a while, chaos would ensue. Should specific clans/groups arise that support terrorist agendas, Ethiopian forces could re-enter Somalia to keep such groups off balance, thus minimizing threats to neighboring countries, Seyoum said. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Foreign Minister Seyoum did not call in the Italian Ambassador, despite the recent visit of Italy's envoy to Somalia and other officials from Rome and Italy's close links to Somalia. Seyoum explained that he felt that the UK and US, not Italy, may be better able to bolster AMISOM, pressure Yusuf to act responsibly, and recognize Ethiopia's role supporting AMISOM. Finally the Ethiopians have reached the limit of their patience with Yusuf and the financial drain of the Somalia operations makes continued involvement in Somalia impractical without an infusion of assistance. Ethiopia hopes that its actions will spur greater international involvement in the Somalia crisis, particularly Western political support and Arab League financial support. Without Ethiopia's involvement, the Ethiopian government is convinced that the situation in Somalia will get worse. End Comment. YAMAMOTO