USAU: AU UNVEILS STRATEGIC AND BUDGET PLANS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003108

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO AND AF/RSA FOR WHALDEMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL AU
SUBJECT: USAU: AU UNVEILS STRATEGIC AND BUDGET PLANS TO
PARTNERS GROUP

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN A. SIMON, REASONS 1.4. (B) AND (D).


1. (U) Summary: Peace and Security will remain one of the
African Union's (AU) top priorities in the coming years,
according to the proposed budget for 2009 that the
organization presented to its international partners group on
November 13. The AU's other "pillars" upon which the budget,
as well as the 2009-12 strategic plan, will rest, consist of
Cooperation, Development, and Regional Integration, Shared
Values, and Institutional Capacity Building. Less than 40
percent of the previous four-year plan was implemented, a
result AU Commission Deputy Chairperson Erastus Mwencha
attributed to overly ambitious expectations and also a lack
of financial and human capacity.


2. (C) The AU Partners Group also exchanged information about
current developments around the African continent. Peace and
Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra reported that the
situation in eastern Congo is not improving despite the call
for a cease-fire, and he announced that he would be traveling
there next week. Lamamra also warned of a "serious
degradation" of the situation in Somalia due to the worsening
humanitarian aid situation, acts of piracy, and Al-Shabab's
capture of the port city of Marka. Similarly, the AU had
little positive to report about political developments in
Zimbabwe, although Deputy Chairperson Mwencha told Ambassador
that the AU could eventually play a greater role in helping
resolve that crisis. End Summary.

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AU Budget for 2009
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3. (U) At the AU Partners Group meeting on November 13, the
AU presented its proposed $152.2 million draft budget for
2009 and the four pillars upon which the budget, and the
2009-12 strategic plan, will rest. Out of the total $152.2
million, $103.3 million would be for operational purposes
while the remaining $48.9 million would go to programs. The
operational budget is fully funded by member states and the
program budget is mainly funded by the AU's development
partners, which have thus far committed to the AU $32.5
million. (FYI: Seventy-five percent of the member state
financing comes from four countries of which Libya, Nigeria,
and South Africa are the largest contributors. End FYI.)


4. (U) The program budget breaks down as follows: Peace and
Security, $5 million; Cooperation, Development, and Regional
Integration, $22.9 million; Shared Valued, $2.9 million; and
Institutional Capacity Building, $18.1 million.


5. (U) AUC Deputy Chairperson Mwencha previewed the 2009
budget by noting that the African continent, which had
experienced 5 percent growth rates at the start of the 21st
century, was now facing higher fuel prices, electricity
shortages, a food crisis, and a global financial crisis.
"Africa's situation is looking extremely bleak. A number of
countries are recording very low growth rates," he said. In
the midst of these shocks, the AU's previous four-year
strategic plan lacked the financial and human resources to
fully implement what Mwencha admitted was an "ambitious"
plan. Implementation of the plan did not reach 40 percent.


6. (U) The AU achieved its strongest results (72 percent) in
the area of Peace and Security, Commissioner Lamamra said.
He said initiatives such as the African Standby Force would
get a greater push in 2009. In contrast, only 40 percent of
the Institutional Capacity Building portion of the plan has
been implemented, and the results for the other pillars are
likewise dismal, Mwencha said. He said the plan's
Cooperation, Development, and Regional Integration objective
is "where the whole issue of unity and prosperity rests."
The AU's international partners concurred. "Without good
governance, peace and security are not possible. Wherever we
look we see proof of that," the German Ambassador to the AU
said.

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Current Developments in Crisis Areas
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7. (U) Following the budget discussion, the international
partners received a series of updates from the AU about the
situation in a number of African countries:

-- Sudan: Lamamra announced he was overjoyed by developments

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in Sudan. Chad and Sudan had agreed to return ambassadors
six months after diplomatic ties were ruptured, Sudanese
President Omar El-Bashir had called for an immediate
cease-fire in Darfur, and there is progress on UNAMID troop
deployment. He said UNAMID is over 50 percent deployed
today, would meet the 60 percent benchmark by January, and
the 80 percent benchmark by March. He hinted ICC action
could bring all of the progress to a halt.

-- Somalia: Despite some positive trends and support for the
Djibouti Agreement, there remains "an extreme" humanitarian
situation in Somalia as well as acts of piracy off its coast,
Lamamra reported. Al-Shabab's seizure of the port city of
Marka has raised fears that they are preparing for an attack
on Mogadishu. "In the days ahead, we fear a serious
degradation of the situation," Lamamra said.

-- Congo: The situation in eastern Congo is not improving,
said Lamamra, who announced that he will be traveling to the
embattled region next week. Despite calls in Nairobi last
week for a cease-fire and the opening of humanitarian
corridors, "the situation does not seem to be evolving in
that direction," Lamamra said. "There is a continuing
escalation in the fighting," he added. He also said that
Nigeria had called for an emergency meeting of the AU's Peace
and Security Council to discuss the violence in eastern
Congo. Partners voiced support for Lamamra's mission to
eastern Congo as well as for an AU emergency meeting.

-- Zimbabwe: Lamamra said he had "no positive developments"
to report concerning Zimbabwe, where President Mugabe and
opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai are bickering over the
formation of a new inclusive government and the sharing of
key ministries. "We need the parties to make an additional
push," Lamamra said.


8. (U) On Zimbabwe, the Ambassador asked if the AU saw the
deadlock at the SADC meeting as an opportunity and a
requirement for it to assume a larger role in helping resolve
the political crisis. Lamamra replied that the AU was in
contact with the key actors and will "bring its weight to
bear." However, he noted that the AU is limited by the
parameters set at last July's AU Summit, which gave the lead
role in the process to SADC. Therefore, the AU could not be
the "locomotive" but the "complementary engine" on the
Zimbabwe issue.


9. (C) After the Partners Group meeting, the Ambassador
sought Mwencha's views on the AU role in Zimbabwe. Mwencha
said that the AU wants to play a larger role in resolving
Zimbabwe's political crisis (even though there is some
trepidation about dealing with Mugabe),but it cannot do so
as long as the regional body, SADC, has the mandate for
dealing with the impasse. Mwencha said he would raise this
issue when AU President and SADC member Kikwete is in Addis
Ababa on November 20. He added that it was important that
this be resolved before the AU Summit in Addis in late
January, or it will dominate the event, where he expected
other AU leaders "to tear Mugabe apart."
YAMAMOTO