ETHIOPIA'S LACKLUSTER PARLIAMENTARY AGENDA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002802 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV EAGR ECON ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA'S LACKLUSTER PARLIAMENTARY AGENDA REF: A. ADDIS 910 ¶B. ADDIS 2645 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) Ethiopian President Girma Woldegiorgis presented the Ethiopian Government's (GoE) parliamentary agenda at the October 6 opening session of Parliament. Peppered with dry calls for administrative proclamations, quality control standards and institutes, and the improvement of key sectors such as the apiculture industry, the President's dispassionate speech largely neglected every major key issue of the day. While making vague pledges of sustaining economic growth, controlling inflation, and consolidating good governance marked the major themes, the President made no mention of contentious national security concerns such as Somalia, tensions with Eritrea, or preparations for the 2010 national elections. President Girma did make passing reference to the pending civil societies organizations (CSO) law, drawing on international best practices to establish a counter-terrorism proclamation, and "changing the structure" of the Ministry of Information. The President also re-echoed the Prime Minister's pledge to Parliament in March (Ref. A) for the GoE to continue to provide grain, sugar, and edible oil subsidies to urban dwellers. While largely a mundane laundry list of apolitical administrative actions that left many observers and opposition MPs bewildered, the largely ceremonial head of state's address was sure to open and conclude in emphasizing that the government has ensured the "opposition's right to be heard and the ruling party's prerogative to take decisions." End Summary. FIRST, EXECUTIVE BRANCH STEPS TO MANAGE THE ECONOMY -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Before addressing the legislative agenda, the President opened with a review, and foreshadowing, of GoE actions to manage the economy. President Girma noted that the continuation of strong economic growth and control of inflation remain the GoE's top priorities. To ensure sustained growth above 10%, Girma argued that the GoE would target the promotion of agricultural productivity, stabilization of prices, and reduction of food prices. Girma was clear that "the government will continue to intervene to stabilize grain prices" by importing grains for subsidized resale to the poor. By redoubling efforts to increase government revenues, minimize the budget deficit, and limiting bank lending, the GoE will seek to reduce by half the amount of money in circulation to control inflation. SOME NUGGETS... -------------- ¶3. (U) Moving into the meat of the GoE's legislative agenda, President Girma sprinkled few key efforts amidst a veritable laundry list of more mundane technical and administrative initiatives. Among these was a proclamation to establish a Council of regional and federal government officials charged with implementing a National Preparatory Plan developed to promote long term economic growth and create a "single strong economic community." To improve the legal and judicial regulatory infrastructure, the GoE will propose an updated Criminal Procedure Code to better conform with the revised Penal Code, a codified evidence law, a judicial procedure/administration law, and a proclamation governing alternative dispute resolution. A pledge to submit a Charities and Societies Proclamation (CSO law) to parliament merited only a passing utterance buried among this broader list of legal sector initiatives without any specific comment. ¶4. (U) As part of the GoE's focus on "creating a conducive environment for the prevalence of peace, President Girma pledged that priority will be given to producing a proper legal framework to combat terrorism, the GoE will present an Anti-Terrorism Proclamation "based on the constitution and lessons from international practice." After announcing an initiative to establish a Ministry of Science and Technology, Girma noted the need to "change the existing structure of the Ministry of Information" to allow the expansion of information technology and the diversity of the media to contribute more effectively to the development of the country." (Note: In an October 3 meeting with Embassy Officers, House Speaker Teshome Toga reported that this step ADDIS ABAB 00002802 002 OF 002 may mean the dissolution of the Ministry of Information and the placement of its functions under the Office of the Prime Minister. End Note). ...BUT MOSTLY ADMINISTRIVIA -------------- ¶5. (U) Apart from these few nuggets on issues of broad interest, the bulk of the President's address covered a slew of bureaucratic and administrative initiatives to establish standards and monitoring mechanisms affecting key elements of Ethiopia's overwhelmingly agricultural-based economy. To promote agricultural productivity, the GoE would propose bills governing the supply of imported seeds and grains, widening the use of modern and organic fertilizers, and establishing a legal framework for the importation and use of pesticides. To shift the export focus of the country with Africa's largest herd from live animals to meat and meat products, the GoE will submit legislation to ensure the quality of meat production. Similar initiatives aim to legislate on bee-keeping development and the production and development of forest resources including natural incense and gum. While Girma made passing reference to legislation on structural reforms in the agricultural sector, he provided no details. ¶6. (U) To promote the development and quality of industrial products to meet international standards, the GoE will propose legislation to establish a Standards and Quality Authority, a National Patent Institute, and re-establish the National Meteorological Institute. In the social sector, bills will be submitted on education reform, higher education, social insurance, health care, and to establish a Health Supervision Authority. ¶7. (U) Beyond the scope of the lower, legislative House of People's Representatives, the President noted that the GoE will urge the upper House of Federation -- charged with administering inter-regional affairs and federal revenue sharing arrangements with the regions -- to review international best practices on the administration of federal systems of governance, to promote domestic awareness of the constitution, and initiate efforts to mitigate conflict among neighboring peoples and regions. President Girma both opened, and concluded, his address by emphasizing that the GoE has, and continues to, ensure the "opposition's right to be heard and the ruling party's prerogative to take decisions." COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (U) While Ethiopia's ceremonial head of state seldom takes up highly-political or contentious issues, our contacts among the political opposition and broader public unveil a high degree of bewilderment and frustration by the President's absolute refusal to raise major political themes of current debate including Ethiopia's role in Somalia, sustained tensions with Eritrea, or the coming 2010 national elections. Certainly the amended structure of the Ministry of Information and the details contained in the forthcoming Anti-Terrorism Proclamation could have broad-ranging implications for U.S. interests and objectives in Ethiopia and the region; we will actively monitor how these developments take shape. ¶9. (U) The pledged continuation of the GoE's largely ineffective food subsidization program, however, raises concerns. If this will be driven by imported grain, as stated by President Girma, the move may supplement the coming harvest's expected short supply, but at a significant hard currency cost at a time when foreign reserves are at precarious lows. Alternately, if sourced from the domestic harvest, as previously reported (Ref. B) the initiative risks exacerbating food insecurity as Ethiopia moves into mid-2009. End Comment. MALAC