ETHIOPIA BRACES FOR AN UNCERTAIN RELATIONSHIP WITH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002561

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA BRACES FOR AN UNCERTAIN RELATIONSHIP WITH
THE U.S.

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles told the Ambassador during a
private two hour meeting September 13 that Ethiopia is
committed to U.S. relations as the cornerstone for its
security and development, but many ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party members and
non-party members in the community are perplexed by the
perceived "unpredictability" of the United States' commitment
to Ethiopia. As the EPRDF heads into its annual ruling party
congress this week, the general feeling among party members
is that Ethiopia must brace for an uncertain future with the
U.S. over misunderstandings and differences on human rights,
democracy, and good governance. Ethiopia will remain, Meles
underscored, committed to U.S. relations and views senior
level bilateral discussions as important to enhancing mutual
understanding, dispelling misinterpretations of each other's
intentions, and promoting cooperation on common shared goals
and objectives.


2. (S/NF) Senator Feingold's proposed bill, announced on the
Ethiopian New Year (September 11),which raises concerns
about Ethiopia's human rights record and proposed civil
society organizations (CSO) law confirmed to some within the
ruling party that rather than seeking dialogue to address
differences and advance relations, the U.S. may seek, rather,
to increase pressure on issues without any effort to
understand Ethiopia's perspective or to work to address these
issues. While the Ambassador pressed on legitimate U.S.
concerns over political space for the 2010 elections, human
rights and food distribution and delivery in the Ogaden and
the CSO/NGO legislation, the Ambassador also stressed the
U.S.'s proven record as a reliable partner on security,
emergency relief and development. Enhancing our outreach to
the ruling party's executive committee will help advance a
more balanced view of the U.S. but, more importantly, will
impress our view that they need to do more to address issues
of concern to Ethiopia's key partner. End Summary.

UNPREDICTABILITY
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3. (S/NF) The Prime Minister met with the Ambassador just
prior to the opening of the annual ruling party congress
which will chart Ethiopian Government (GoE) policies for the
next year and beyond. He remarked to the Ambassador that
Ethiopians are perplexed by U.S. criticism of Ethiopia's
human rights and good governance records at a time when
relations should be strong. Meles specifically noted the
activism of Ethiopian troops in peace keeping operations in
Liberia and Darfur, and its unmatched cooperation with the
U.S. in the region and on the continent in dealing with U.S.
counterterrorism priorities. The Prime Minister said there
is a general feeling among ruling party members, but also
among professionals in the community, of an "unpredictable"
United States that appears to seek fault rather than to work
to address issues of concerns. A small minority of
hard-liners within the party even see the West, in general,
as seeking to undermine the EPRDF to allow for "political
change." The Prime Minister, an astute observer of the U.S.,
clarified this by noting that many Ethiopians see the U.S.
press, Congress, and others as reflective of the overall
position held by the U.S.


4. (S/NF) The Prime Minister explained that Ethiopians look
for established unchanging "frameworks" to explain and set
policies and relations with other countries. This implies
"predictability" and consistency of action. He pointed to
relations with China, Russia, Israel, India, and Turkey as
very clearly defined and predictable relations which do not
deviate from perceived "frameworks." Trade and investment,
loan guarantees, infrastructure development, and military
purchases are the key bases for relations. These countries
would not, and cannot, compete with the U.S. or detract
Ethiopia from focusing on U.S. relations because the U.S.
stands alone on security and economic development. The U.S.
is viewed by Ethiopia in a more comprehensive approach where
statements and analysis articulated by Congress, the U.S.
press, or the White House serve as important pronouncements

ADDIS ABAB 00002561 002 OF 003


on issues and relations that could affect Ethiopia.


5. (S/NF) The Ambassador argued that given the diversity of
the U.S. partnership with Ethiopia, the relationship is a
comprehensive one. The Ambassador stressed that the U.S. is
a reliable partner in providing emergency food aid, security,
and development, but also noted that the United States also
has very real concerns about some recent developments in
Ethiopia. The Ambassador argued that by shying away from
explaining their position, Ethiopian officials also miss
opportunities to clarify where genuine misperceptions exist.
The Ambassador noted that Foreign Minister Seyoum spoke
about Ethiopia's Millennium activities but avoided a question
from the press on the Ogaden. Ethiopian officials need to
address such issues and agreed with the Prime Minister that
senior bilateral dialogue would be important in addressing
issues. This will help Ethiopia explain its position but
more important, underscore what steps need to be taken by
Ethiopia to correct genuine problems and improve relations.

ISSUES OF CONCERN -- 2010 AND POLITICAL SPACE
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6. (S/NF) The Prime Minister addressed each of the three
issues raised by the Ambassador while underscoring that
senior bilateral discussions would be important to dispel
misunderstandings, resolve differences, and promote
cooperation. The 2010 national elections and the concern
over limited political space for the opposition -- raised
privately by the Ambassador as well as in conjunction with
the Ambassadors of the UK and France -- elicited familiar
themes from the Prime Minister. Meles said the ruling party
has expanded political space and that reforms in the
parliament are unprecedented; expanding access by the
opposition to setting the parliamentary agenda and granting
time for debate on policy issues that go well beyond what was
in place prior to the historic 2005 national elections, which
saw an increase from 12 to 172 opposition members in the 547
member parliament. Meles noted that many opposition parties
did not utilize the time allotted to them for policy debate,
rather they focused on expanding their position within the
Parliament.


7. (S/NF) The Prime Minister argued that the EPRDF's purpose
is to protect and implement the constitution to the point
where the EPRDF's ultimate goal is to be "redundant" and, in
a deeper sense, "obsolete." At that time the issue will no
longer be protecting the constitution and political
institutions because there will be truly free and open debate
in a multi-party, pluralistic political environment where who
ever becomes Prime Minister would be fine because all the
candidates are committed to the state and to the
constitution.


8. (S/NF) He said this is the strength of the U.S. in which
political parties debate issues and, whichever candidate
wins, the constitution of the U.S. is safe. Those who oppose
the constitution are marginalized. In Ethiopia, this is
still not the case. Meles referred to Hailu Shawel the
former leader of the opposition in 2005. He called him
clearly undemocratic and argued that Hailu would use power to
undermine the constitution and institutions which would then
undermine the protection of the various ethnic groups and
lead to a divided country. Meles was careful to note that
this is not true of other opposition personalities. Meles
firmly stated that Ethiopia is committed a fully open,
pluralistic political environment and will not turn away from
this democratic road, and the EPRDF will take steps to
protect this democratic process.


9. (S/NF) Meles finally noted that the opposition spends a
great deal of time speaking with the press and foreign
diplomats articulating an image of an overbearing and
oppressive EPRDF party. Meles however argued that the EPRDF
has done more to reach out to the people, noting that 85
percent of the population is rural based and this is where
the real battle for the hearts and minds will take place, not
in the press halls or in Embassies or in urban settings.
Meles said the EPRDF is terrible with the press, but he
assured the Ambassador that the EPRDF is committed to the
people.


ADDIS ABAB 00002561 003 OF 003


ISSUES OF CONTENTION -- CSO/NGO LAW
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10. (S/NF) The Prime Minister restated his comments made to
the Ambassador in previous meetings and in joint meetings
with the US, UK, and French Ambassadors. The CSO law is
important in establishing uniquely homegrown civil society
groups that focus on Ethiopian solutions for Ethiopian
problems. Meles said he was taken aback by the tough press
and lobbying activities of foreign NGOs and Human Rights
Watch over the CSO law. Meles claimed that NGO activities
will not be affected in development and humanitarian relief
-- the overwhelming part of foreign and local NGO activity in
Ethiopia. It will be in the area of internal politics. He
argued that the CSO law is logical in its base purpose of
keeping foreign groups and entities out of Ethiopia's
internal political process. That should be a distinctly
Ethiopian activity. The Prime Minister noted changes made to
the law, and indicated further changes before, and perhaps
even after, the implementation of the law.

ISSUES OF CONCERN -- OGADEN AND HUMAN RIGHTS
--------------


11. (S/NF) The Ambassador raised the problem of food delivery
and distribution and the Prime Minister's agreement made in
July permitting a greater U.S. and WFP role on logistical
distribution of food. The Ambassador said the "hub and
spoke" food distribution scheme had not been implemented yet
and this was key to getting food to the region and was
already agreed to by the government. The Prime Minister
expressed confusion and said he would raise it with Deputy
Prime Minister Adissu and that the U.S. should do the same as
well. The Prime Minister said this should not be an issue of
contention. The Prime Minister again articulated and
repeated his views that he would not allow his people to
starve. Noting the tough insurgency and flow of extremists
infiltrating Ethiopia from Somalia, he argued that his people
come first. He said that Human Rights Watch had gotten its
information wrong and that some NGOs have distorted the facts
on the ground. Again, the Ambassador said the Ethiopian
government needs to explain and be open about the Ogaden.

COMMENT
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12. (S/NF) The Ambassador has been questioned by business
people, professors and other professionals who have also
asked if the U.S. and Ethiopia are headed towards tough times
over human rights and what effect this would have on trade
and overall relations. The GoE's claim of uncertainty about
the bilateral relationship likely stems from the relative
stove-piping of issues raised by the steady flow of
issue-specific USG visitors and interlocutors and the need
for a broad bilateral policy dialogue. Post is embarking on
an effort to expand direct outreach to a broader array of
ruling party principals to expand their understanding of our
partnership and interests. At the same time, we agree with
the Prime Minister that an intensive bilateral policy
discussion that captures the breadth of issues of mutual
interest and concern is fundamental to reversing the current
perception of unreliability and to better advancing U.S.
foreign policy objectives. It is clear to the Ambassador
from this and prior discussions that not only is the U.S.,
but the West more broadly, is not on the same page with the
Ethiopians and that only through direct discussions will we
be able to better bridge that gap. Joint U.S.-UK-French
demarches to the Prime Minister in recent months have made it
clear that the Europeans look to us to take the first
necessary step in this direction. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO