OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS LOCAL ELECTIONS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000250

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DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH, AND INR/B
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2018
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS DISCUSS LOCAL ELECTIONS AND
DEMOCRACY ISSUES WITH PDAS THOMAS-GREENFIELD

REF: ADDIS ABABA 00145

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Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a January 18 meeting with opposition
party leaders, Africa Bureau Principal Deputy Assistant
Secretary Linda Thomas-Greenfield asked about preparations

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for upcoming local elections, progress in democratization in
Ethiopia, as well as the recent turmoil regarding the
National Electoral Board's (NEB) decisions regarding the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) (reftel).
Opposition leaders told PDAS that they are encountering
numerous significant difficulties in preparing their parties
for the elections, ranging from intimidation in voter
registration to harassment of candidates. They complained
that the current environment more resembles the elections in
1995, rather than the relatively successful and open
pre-election period in 2005. CUDP party leaders were livid
with NEB decisions to give their party symbol and party
registration to rivals Lidetu Ayelu and Ayele Chamisso, which
they point to as part of a larger Ethiopian Government (GoE)
strategy to dismantle the most prominent opposition party in
Ethiopia. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Africa Bureau PDAS Linda Thomas-Greenfield,
accompanied by Ambassador, DCM and Poloffs (notetaker),
hosted a luncheon on January 18 for opposition party leaders:
Bulcha Demeksa, Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM); Dr.
Beyene Petros, United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF); Dr.
Merera Gudina, Oromo People's Congress (OPC),a member party
of the UEDF coalition; Temesgen Zewdie, former leader of the
CUDP; and Birtukan Mideksa, former vice-chairperson of the
CUD and a former detainee.

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EARLY HARASSMENT A BAD OMEN FOR ELECTIONS
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3. (SBU) Bulcha, Dr. Beyene and Dr. Merera told PDAS that
they are actively organizing their respective parties for the
local elections, which will take place on April 13 and 20,
and have begun to register candidates. However, they said
that the degree of harassment and interference from
government security forces is making it very difficult for
them, likening the level of openness to the 1995 election
period in which virtually no opposition was able to field
candidates. Bulcha, in a semi-sarcastic way, told PDAS that
if the GoE would simply "slow down the rate" at which they
were putting his people in jail, he would be more confident
about his party's chances in the elections. Though to date
no registered candidates have been arrested, many supporters
and many potential candidates have recently been arrested on
trumped up charges in recent weeks. (Note: Bulcha separately
told Poloff that if any registered candidate is arrested, his
party will withdraw from the elections. End Note.) Bulcha
said that he has not seen any indication from the government
that it is serious about competing fairly in the elections
and is unabashedly using its power to suppress opposition
parties, proving that Ethiopia will not soon be a true
multi-party democracy.


4. (SBU) Dr. Beyene echoed the issue of arrest of potential
candidates, saying that he is receiving calls daily from
around the country regarding supporters being rounded up.
Further, he reported that many possible supporters have had
difficulties in registering to vote, with some being simply
denied because they are known UEDF voters. Dr. Beyene said
that the NEB is unresponsive when he raises these issues,
which he claims proves that the board is not the independent
body it claims to be. (Note: Despite the opposition providing
to Post copies of letters of complaint about the detention of
specific supporters, the NEB Chair on January 11 told
Ambassador that the NEB had not pursued such allegations due
to opposition parties, failure to provide specific details
in writing. End note). Dr. Merera's OPC party, who the
government accuses of harboring outlawed Oromo Liberation
Front (OLF) supporters, traditionally has faced more serious
abuses from GoE security forces. Despite strong support
throughout the Oromiya region, he said that he is having
difficulty fielding an adequate number of candidates, with
many people afraid to run under his party name for fear of
harassment or arrest. Dr. Merera also noted that the NEB is

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now actively staffing local offices in preparation for the
elections, but that most of the employees are known ruling
party supporters. Pointing out the importance of local
elections, he said that "the government appears to be taking
no chances" that it will lose seats in local governments.

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CUDP LEFT ON OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
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5. (SBU) CUDP leaders, on the other hand, have been
effectively frozen out of participation in local elections.
While the contingent of CUDP leaders, both active MPs and
those who were recently released from prison, led
respectively by Temesgen and Birtukan, had been intending to
compete in the elections, the NEB's recent decision to award
the party registration to Ayele Chamisso (reftel) has meant
that they will not have a party under which to run.
Temesgen, having only learned of the NEB's decision earlier
in the week, was very agitated in the meeting, insisting that
the USG must confront the GoE on its strategy of
"dismantling" his party. He warned that the international
community must take this issue seriously, saying that he is
concerned about how supporters will react to the NEB's
decision around election time when they do not have party to
vote for. Birtukan, while more tempered in the meeting than
Temesgen, repeated the concern for the voters, saying, "It is
not just an issue of elections ) millions of voters have
been deprived of the right to vote for who they want."

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COMMENT: PROGNOSIS FOR LOCAL ELECTIONS LOOKS GRIM
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6. (C) Opposition leaders paint a very pessimistic picture
for the local elections. While voter and candidate
registration continues until February 8, the GoE appears more
emboldened in its willingness and methods by which to
interfere. The opposition openly longs for the relative
openness of the 2005 election period, during which candidates
and voters alike were eagerly awaiting polling dates. This
time around, opposition leaders report widespread voter
apathy and fear by potential candidates. Meanwhile, the
CUDP, the strongest opposition party in the 2005 pre-election
period, has been eliminated from the running before the race
begins. Post continues to monitor the pre-election process
and will continue to engage with both the opposition and GoE
on the need for free and fair elections. PDAS
Thomas-Greenfield explained to opposition leaders that the
USG, while balancing a range of national interests in
Ethiopia, remains fully committed to seeing that the local
elections -- and down the road, the 2010 parliamentary
elections -- are held in a environment of openness and fair
competition. Opposition leaders expressed gratitude and
pledged to continue to work toward this goal and towards a
peaceful election period. END COMMENT.


7. (U) Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Thomas-Greenfield
was unable to clear on this message before departing Addis
Ababa.
MALAC