ETHIOPIA: OROMO ELDERS BELIEVE RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002487

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OROMO ELDERS BELIEVE RECONCILIATION
BREAKTHROUGH POSSIBLE

REF: ADDIS ABABA 1968

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

Summary
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1. (C) Oromo Elders told Ambassador September 6 during a
private meeting that they believe reconciliation between the
Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ethiopian government
(GoE) is within reach. They plan to hold a meeting of Oromo
civic and local leaders in the next few weeks to consolidate
the Oromo political base in Ethiopia for this initiative.
After their recent visit to Minnesota and private contacts
with Oromo groups in Eritrea, the Oromo Elders believe the
OLF would commit to support the Ethiopian constitution,
renounce violence and work for political openness in
Ethiopia, provided the international community supports such
efforts and the GoE follows through on its private assurances
that it will support dialogue and reconciliation with the
OLF. Eritrea remains a major obstacle, as the Elders contend
Asmara holds some OLF members as essentially "hostages"
whenever OLF leadership travels, thereby preventing the
entire OLF leadership and supporters from leaving Eritrea for
open and frank discussion with GoE interlocutors in a neutral
country. The Oromo Elders stated emphatically that Eritrea
could play the spoiler in any reconciliation effort, forcing
the OLF to abandon its members and support systems in Asmara
in order to conclude a comprehensive agreement with the GoE.
End Summary.

Is A Breakthrough Possible?
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2. (C) Oromo Elders Ambassador Berhanu Dinka, Mekanus Jesus
Lutheran Church Reverand Eteffa Gobana Molte and Oxfam
America Director Abera Tola (collectively, the Elders)
reviewed for the Ambassador their recent trip to Minnesota
(reftel) and their other recent contacts with the OLF. While
the OLF has apparently has a leadership rift between a
faction led by former Ethiopian brigadier general Kemal
Gelchu and OLF leader Dawud Ibsa, the Elders said in their
conversation in Minnesota with representatives of all
factions, and in private conversations with the lieutenants
and confidants of both Kemal and Dawud, there is still
receptivity all around to reconciliation with the GoE. The
Elders made clear that elements for reconciliation include,
foremost, the acceptance and commitment to the Ethiopian
constitution. Next, there must be a commitment to peaceful
dialogue and the renunciation of violence. The Elders were
more confident than in their last meeting with the
Ambassador, asserting that their range of discussions
included the question of how receptive the GoE would be to
greater political inclusiveness, how OLF members would be
able to return to Ethiopia, and how OLF members would be able
to form political parties in Ethiopia.


3. (C) The Ambassador asked how sure the Elders were that
Kemal and Dawud both supported reconciliation and whether the
OLF split is not more fundamentally on how to increase
pressure on the GoE through armed struggle. Berhanu and his
colleagues said that, based on their talks with
representatives in Minnesota and other contacts with groups
in Asmara, the Elders believe the OLF factions are receptive
to dialogue with the GoE and pushing forward on possible
reconciliation. Both OLF groups, however, want clear public
support from the international community and clear assurances
from the GoE for reconciliation to proceed, the Elders said.

High Risks, Eritrea As Spoiler
--------------


4. (C) The Elders said many obstacles remain and success is
far from certain, but they are more hopeful now than during
their last conversation with the Ambassador (reftel),just
prior to their trip to Minnesota. The Elders said they must
still secure support from Oromo civic and local leaders in
Ethiopia, like Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement Chairman
Bulcha Demeksa, the most senior Oromo political leader. In
this context, the Elders plan to host a meeting of Oromo
leaders in the next few weeks. Further, the Elders said they
need to keep the momentum moving forward, which means
constant assurances from Prime Minister Meles that he will be

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forward-leaning in any discussions with the OLF. On
international support, the Elders requested that the United
States coordinate support from Europe and others, and weigh
in with the Prime Minister. The Ambassador responded that in
discussions between the United States and the OLF from 2003
to 2005, the United States was in favor of public
announcements supporting dialogue between the OLF and GoE
provided the OLF renounced violence. Further, the Ambassador
underscored there needs to be clear support from the Prime
Minister for talks with the OLF. Finally, the Ambassador
said the United States would not play any leading role, since
the Prime Minister has made it clear that he wants any OLF
dialogue to be a uniquely Ethiopian effort led by Ethiopian
Elders.


5. (C) Eritrea still presents an obstacle. The Elders said
President Isaias wants to retain the OLF as a tool to
increase violence and armed struggle in Ethiopia, and will
likely undercut any reconciliation that detracts from a
hostile OLF-GoE relationship. Berhanu and his colleagues
said an open and frank discussion with all the OLF and its
supporters is needed and that can only happen outside of
Eritrea, without pressure from Isaias. They have tried to
determine how best to get members out of Eritrea since Isaias
insists that OLF supporters and some leaders remain in
Eritrea whenever other OLF leaders are traveling abroad. In
the end it may be necessary for the OLF to engage the GoE
even with prospects that Isaias would keep some OLF members
hostage in Asmara.


6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about other
OLF-GoE initiatives, especially those led by Professor
Ephraim Isaac, who took the lead (while coordinating
privately with the United States Embassy) to secure the
release of 71 political detainees last year, Berhanu sounded
a note of caution. For now, the Oromo Elders want to keep
the process within their authority, until there is more
movement. Later, other could be included in the process.
The Elders indicated that they were in the lead in any
outreach to the OLF.

Comment
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7. (C) The OLF-GoE reconciliation process faces difficult
challenges. Oromo groups here in Ethiopia, led by Bulcha,
still claim some 30,000 Oromos in detention without due
process or under false charges. The GoE will need to make a
greater effort to reach out to the Oromo community as well as
demonstrate that it is truly supportive of an open dialogue
with the OLF. Eritrea being Eritrea will continue to seek
every means to undercut any reconciliation, but ultimately
success will depend on how committed the OLF is to peace and
the GoE to engagement. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO