ETHIOPIA: OROMO ELDERS BELIEVE RECONCILIATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002487 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OROMO ELDERS BELIEVE RECONCILIATION BREAKTHROUGH POSSIBLE REF: ADDIS ABABA 1968 Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Oromo Elders told Ambassador September 6 during a private meeting that they believe reconciliation between the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ethiopian government (GoE) is within reach. They plan to hold a meeting of Oromo civic and local leaders in the next few weeks to consolidate the Oromo political base in Ethiopia for this initiative. After their recent visit to Minnesota and private contacts with Oromo groups in Eritrea, the Oromo Elders believe the OLF would commit to support the Ethiopian constitution, renounce violence and work for political openness in Ethiopia, provided the international community supports such efforts and the GoE follows through on its private assurances that it will support dialogue and reconciliation with the OLF. Eritrea remains a major obstacle, as the Elders contend Asmara holds some OLF members as essentially "hostages" whenever OLF leadership travels, thereby preventing the entire OLF leadership and supporters from leaving Eritrea for open and frank discussion with GoE interlocutors in a neutral country. The Oromo Elders stated emphatically that Eritrea could play the spoiler in any reconciliation effort, forcing the OLF to abandon its members and support systems in Asmara in order to conclude a comprehensive agreement with the GoE. End Summary. Is A Breakthrough Possible? -------------- ¶2. (C) Oromo Elders Ambassador Berhanu Dinka, Mekanus Jesus Lutheran Church Reverand Eteffa Gobana Molte and Oxfam America Director Abera Tola (collectively, the Elders) reviewed for the Ambassador their recent trip to Minnesota (reftel) and their other recent contacts with the OLF. While the OLF has apparently has a leadership rift between a faction led by former Ethiopian brigadier general Kemal Gelchu and OLF leader Dawud Ibsa, the Elders said in their conversation in Minnesota with representatives of all factions, and in private conversations with the lieutenants and confidants of both Kemal and Dawud, there is still receptivity all around to reconciliation with the GoE. The Elders made clear that elements for reconciliation include, foremost, the acceptance and commitment to the Ethiopian constitution. Next, there must be a commitment to peaceful dialogue and the renunciation of violence. The Elders were more confident than in their last meeting with the Ambassador, asserting that their range of discussions included the question of how receptive the GoE would be to greater political inclusiveness, how OLF members would be able to return to Ethiopia, and how OLF members would be able to form political parties in Ethiopia. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador asked how sure the Elders were that Kemal and Dawud both supported reconciliation and whether the OLF split is not more fundamentally on how to increase pressure on the GoE through armed struggle. Berhanu and his colleagues said that, based on their talks with representatives in Minnesota and other contacts with groups in Asmara, the Elders believe the OLF factions are receptive to dialogue with the GoE and pushing forward on possible reconciliation. Both OLF groups, however, want clear public support from the international community and clear assurances from the GoE for reconciliation to proceed, the Elders said. High Risks, Eritrea As Spoiler -------------- ¶4. (C) The Elders said many obstacles remain and success is far from certain, but they are more hopeful now than during their last conversation with the Ambassador (reftel),just prior to their trip to Minnesota. The Elders said they must still secure support from Oromo civic and local leaders in Ethiopia, like Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement Chairman Bulcha Demeksa, the most senior Oromo political leader. In this context, the Elders plan to host a meeting of Oromo leaders in the next few weeks. Further, the Elders said they need to keep the momentum moving forward, which means constant assurances from Prime Minister Meles that he will be ADDIS ABAB 00002487 002 OF 002 forward-leaning in any discussions with the OLF. On international support, the Elders requested that the United States coordinate support from Europe and others, and weigh in with the Prime Minister. The Ambassador responded that in discussions between the United States and the OLF from 2003 to 2005, the United States was in favor of public announcements supporting dialogue between the OLF and GoE provided the OLF renounced violence. Further, the Ambassador underscored there needs to be clear support from the Prime Minister for talks with the OLF. Finally, the Ambassador said the United States would not play any leading role, since the Prime Minister has made it clear that he wants any OLF dialogue to be a uniquely Ethiopian effort led by Ethiopian Elders. ¶5. (C) Eritrea still presents an obstacle. The Elders said President Isaias wants to retain the OLF as a tool to increase violence and armed struggle in Ethiopia, and will likely undercut any reconciliation that detracts from a hostile OLF-GoE relationship. Berhanu and his colleagues said an open and frank discussion with all the OLF and its supporters is needed and that can only happen outside of Eritrea, without pressure from Isaias. They have tried to determine how best to get members out of Eritrea since Isaias insists that OLF supporters and some leaders remain in Eritrea whenever other OLF leaders are traveling abroad. In the end it may be necessary for the OLF to engage the GoE even with prospects that Isaias would keep some OLF members hostage in Asmara. ¶6. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about other OLF-GoE initiatives, especially those led by Professor Ephraim Isaac, who took the lead (while coordinating privately with the United States Embassy) to secure the release of 71 political detainees last year, Berhanu sounded a note of caution. For now, the Oromo Elders want to keep the process within their authority, until there is more movement. Later, other could be included in the process. The Elders indicated that they were in the lead in any outreach to the OLF. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The OLF-GoE reconciliation process faces difficult challenges. Oromo groups here in Ethiopia, led by Bulcha, still claim some 30,000 Oromos in detention without due process or under false charges. The GoE will need to make a greater effort to reach out to the Oromo community as well as demonstrate that it is truly supportive of an open dialogue with the OLF. Eritrea being Eritrea will continue to seek every means to undercut any reconciliation, but ultimately success will depend on how committed the OLF is to peace and the GoE to engagement. End Comment. YAMAMOTO