SOMALI TFG PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER AGREE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002322

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO PINR SO ET
SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER AGREE ON
WAY FORWARD, FOR NOW

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2265

Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reason: 1.4 (B).


1. (C/NF) Summary. Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Hassan
Hussein Nur "Adde" are expected to sign an agreement in Addis
Ababa on August 26 confirming their willingness to work with
each other, bridging, at least for now, their recent impasse
over the Prime Minister's attempt to fire Mogadishu Mayor
Mohammed Dheere. MFA Acting Chief of the Minister's Cabinet
Abdetta Dribssa told PolOff in a meeting on August 23 that
the agreement was a face-saving compromise for both the
President and Prime Minister. The meeting was also attended
by Minelik Alemu, MFA Acting Director General for the
International Law and Consular Affairs, and Tesfaye Yilma,
MFA Director General for Europe and the Americas. The
agreement calls for the election of a new Benadir
administration 15 days from the agreement's approval, with
the understanding of both leaders that Mohammed Dheere will
not be elected. The agreement also increases the size of the
cabinet from 15 to 20 members, to include the five ministers
who resigned and the five ministers the Prime Minister
appointed to replace those who resigned. Abdetta admitted
that neither leader was truly committed to reconciliation,
and Minelik questioned how long the agreement would last.
Abdetta stated that Mohammed Dheere remained a threat to the
Prime Minister out of revenge for the Prime Minister's
attempt to fire Dheere. Lastly, Post expects that the
Ethiopian government will increase its calls for greater USG
bilateral coordination and increased support for the TFG.
End Summary.

Parties Ready to Sign Agreement...
--------------


2. (C/NF) On August 26, President Yusuf and Prime Minister
Nur Adde are expected to sign an agreement in Addis Ababa
that declares their commitment to working with each other
within the TFG government. According to Abdetta, the
agreement was meant as a face-saving device to both TFG
leaders and was a compromise to get them beyond their current
impasse in an attempt to save the TFG. The heart of the
agreement, which will need to be approved by the parliament,
resolves the issue of Mohammed Dheere's firing and the issue
of the composition of the cabinet. The agreement calls for a
new Benadir administration, to be named through some type of
regional conference and election 15 days from the TFG
parliament's approval of the agreement, with the
understanding that Dheere will not be part of the new
government. Adbetta admitted that there was nothing
prohibiting Dheere from standing for office in the election,
and, when pressed, said that "if Dheere is elected, we will
have to deal with him." The size of the cabinet will be
increased from 15 to 20 members. The five ministers who
resigned will keep their seats and the five ministers
appointed by the Prime Minister to replace those who resigned
will also be confirmed into the cabinet. Abdetta said that
the composition of the cabinet would continue to reflect the
4.5 formula from the TFG Charter. (Note: There are
conflicting reports on the total number of cabinet positions
authorized by the agreement, but it is certain that the size
of the cabinet will be increased.)

...But Reconciliation "Spirit" Lacking
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3. (C/NF) Minelik and Tesfaye, who were also being briefed
on the agreement for the first-time at our August 23 meeting,
were openly skeptical of the willingness of Yusuf and Nur
Adde to work together. In an unusually frank moment, Minelik
asked Abdetta "did we (Ethiopia) force them into this
agreement?" Abdetta denied that the parties had been forced
into reconciling, but admitted that "the spirit of
reconciliation was lacking." He said that while both leaders
had agreed to the basic principles, both the President and
Prime Minister were still attempting to manipulate the terms
of the agreement to improve their position against the other.
Minelik wondered aloud whether the agreement would last a
week, and insisted that there must be follow through and some
mechanism to hold the parties accountable for their actions.
He went on to note that Washington and the international
community believed they had time to contemplate what to do on

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Somalia because Ethiopian troops where there, but he
emphasized that they did not have such time. He said
Ethiopia would leave Somalia because it was the only way to
motivate the international community to act.

Dheere a Threat to the Prime Minister
--------------


4. (C/NF) Regarding the Prime Minister's attempted firing
of Mohammed Dheere, Abdetta said that Nur Adde had no choice
but to move against Dheere in the manner he did by making the
firing public before Yusuf had officially approved the
action. He said that had Nur Adde kept quiet while waiting
for Yusuf, Dheere would have been alerted to the move by a
cabinet member, and reacted by either imprisoning the Prime
Minister or by having him killed. Abdetta said that after
the announcement Dheere moved his technicals around Mogadishu
in a threatening manner, and that Ethiopian intervention was
required to warn Dheere off. Abdetta assessed that Dheere
remained a threat to the Prime Minister.

Insight into the Somali Worldview?
--------------


5. (C/NF) Abdetta, who has been working Somali issues for
more than a decade and who spent two years in Hargeysa, said
that Somalis do not see the individual, rather they see the
ethnic group or clan behind the individual, and deal with the
individual based on their assessment of the person's group.
As an ethnic Oromo, Abdetta said Somalis do not see him, but
they see 32 million of his Oromo brethren who, at least in
theory, can be called to arms when needed. Therefore, they
give him more respect. On the other hand for example, a
Gurage Ethiopian Ambassador to Somaliland some years back was
never accepted because he was viewed as a man who came from a
small, business-oriented people who had no capability for
war. By extension, Abdetta added that Somalis viewed AMISOM
not as representative of the international community, but as
a small isolated force that can be eliminated at any time.
Abdetta opined that the local clans in Mogadishu had already
divided up AMISOM's assets and, "already knew which clans
were going to get which vehicles."


6. (C/NF) Minelik agreed, remembering that Ethiopia, in his
opinion, had made a serious mistake by sending an Ethiopian
ethnic Somali Ambassador to TFG conferences in Mogadishu and
Nairobi. He said that the Somalis did not see the Ambassador
as Ethiopian, but as one more Somali who was there to
represent the interests of his particular clan, rather than
the interests of the Ethiopian state.

Somalis, Muggles, and Non Sequiturs
--------------


7. (C/NF) Abdetta was still shocked and not a little amused
that President Yusuf, in his August 16 meeting with EmbOffs,
had asked whether Prime Minister Nur Adde was black, white,
or yellow (Reftel). He said that he had reconfirmed with
Somali contacts that Yusuf was really asking whether Nur Adde
was a white man cursed by God, and by implication, a traitor
to all Somalis. The conversation prompted Tesfaye to note
that he had read all of the Harry Potter books primarily to
be able to converse with his children who were avid Potter
fans, and declared that he understood the definition of a
muggle (implied in this context as an outsider). His
revelation brought similar confessions from both Abdetta and
Minelik who said that they too had read the books to be able
to understand what their children were telling them.

Comment
--------------


8. (C/NF) Although Abdetta said that the Ethiopian
government did not force Yusuf and Nur Adde into the
agreement, it is clear that without considerable Ethiopian
pressure the two sides would have never have come to such an
agreement. The agreement is, in fact, Ethiopia's envisioned
roadmap for sustainment of the TFG throughout the remaining
transitional period, and Washington should expect that
Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin will continue to press for
increased bi-lateral coordination for implementation and
follow-up of the roadmap. End Comment.
MALAC