ETHIOPIA OFFERS A WAY FORWARD ON SOMALIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 002281 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/19/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA OFFERS A WAY FORWARD ON SOMALIA REF: ADDIS ABABA 2265 Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reason: 1.4(B). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. The MFA Acting Chief of the Minister's Cabinet Abdetta Dribssa on August 18 passed PolOffs Ethiopia's proposed way forward through the current Transitional Federal Government (TFG) crisis, provided TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Hassan Hussein Nur "Adde" are able to reconcile. Ethiopia proposed that the TFG provide a road map with a clear timetable, increased substantive consultations with Washington and the international community, the establishment of TFG administrations in Benadir and Lower Juba, and sustained financial and material support from the international community. End Summary. Ethiopia's Way Forward -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) As reported separately (reftel),Prime Minister Meles on August 15 gave Yusuf and Nur Adde an ultimatum that either they figure out how to work with each other or Ethiopia would withdraw immediately from Mogadishu. According to Abdetta, Foreign Minister Seyoum had a plan for moving forward if the two leaders were able to reconcile. --First, Ethiopia would demand a roadmap from the TFG with a clear timetable for the achievement of targeted objectives related to governance over the remainder of the transitional period. This timetable would lay out in detail obtainable objectives with the expectation that the international community would hold the TFG accountable for the plan. --Second, Ethiopia would call on Washington and other "friends" in the international community, particularly Great Britain and France, to consult and develop an agreement on how to assist the TFG in the implementation of the roadmap. Through Abdetta, FM Seyoum asked for high-level bi-lateral consultations regarding Somalia, and he suggested that Washington consult with its potential partners in the international community on how they might collaborate together. Abdetta stressed that many governments would follow Washington's lead. --Third, the TFG must establish administrations in Benadir and in Lower Juba without delay. Abdetta said that establishing effective administrations in these areas would prevent al-Shabaab from gaining support. He emphasized that as long as the TFG appears weak al-Shabaab would be able to gain territory and support. He also underscored in no uncertain terms that Mohammed Dheere could not be part of any new Benadir administration; Ethiopia would never accept it. --Fourth, the international community should collectively commit to sustained financial and material support for the TFG's roadmap process. Abdetta stated that the support from the international community was vital to the success of the TFG and any hope of finding peace in Somalia. Comment -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) We anticipate this request for high-level consultation on Somalia to arise again. To date, our response has been that the USG stands ready to work with the Ethiopian government and others to try to bring greater stability to Somalia. Please advise if Washington would like us to be more forward-leaning. End Comment. MALAC