ADDIS ABABA RESPONSE - SECURITY ENVIRONMENT PROFILE

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 002223 DEPT FOR: DS/IP/AF, DS/IP/ITA, DS/TIA/ITA, AF/EX, SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PTER ET SUBJECT: ADDIS ABABA RESPONSE - SECURITY ENVIRONMENT PROFILE QUESTIONNAIRE (SEPQ) FALL 2008 REF: 08 STATE 84414 -------------- ¶1. (SBU) POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND DEMONSTRATIONS -------------- ¶A. ARE THERE ANY ETHNIC OR RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN COUNTRY CAPABLE OF CARRYING OUT SIGNIFICANT ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATIONS? -Yes, there is a sizable Muslim population throughout Ethiopia as well as ethnic Somali's. Generally there is very little if any anti-American sentiment among the majority of the population in Ethiopia. Only small segments of the general population within Ethiopia are prone to extremism. There have not been any anti-American demonstrations in Ethiopia for the past several years. ¶B. HAVE THERE BEEN ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE COUNTRY OVER THE PAST 12 MONTHS? -No ¶C. HAVE DEMONSTRATIONS TAKEN PLACE NEAR OR IN FRONT OF U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES? -No anti-American demonstrations. In July 2008 a group of approximately 120 local nationals arrived at the front gate of the chancery during business hours and held a peaceful rally regarding the political situation in Eritrea. This group was accompanied by local police, read statements and departed the area after approximately 30 minutes. This group visited several other Addis Ababa locations on the same day, to include; UN, AU, EU and other diplomatic missions in an effort to draw international attention and support to the situation in Eritrea. ¶D. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE SIZE OF AN ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATION? -N/A ¶E. ARE ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATIONS USUALLY TRIGGERED BY U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INITIATIVES, MILITARY ACTIONS OR BY DOMESTIC ISSUES? -N/A, there have not been any anti-American demonstrations in Ethiopia during the past year. ¶F. ARE DEMONSTRATIONS GENERALLY PEACEFUL OR VIOLENT? -In November 2005 there were demonstrations/riots throughout Addis Ababa in response to dissatisfaction concerning local elections. The Ethiopian police and security services responded with force to quell the situation. Approximately 200 Ethiopian civilians were reported to be killed in Addis Ababa. There have not been any notable violent demonstrations in Ethiopia during the past year. ¶G. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO USG PROPERTY OR INJURIES TO USG EMPLOYEES. -No, the above demonstrations and riots primarily focused on GOE facilities. Some passing USG vehicles were struck by projectiles and sustained minor damage. There has not been any property damage or injuries to USG interests during the past year as the result of demonstrations. ¶H. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS EVER PENETRATED OUR SECURITY PERIMETER LINE? -No ¶I. HAVE THERE BEEN ANY ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS? -No ¶J. HAVE DEMONSTRATIONS TAKEN PLACE NEAR OR IN FRONT OF U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES? -No. The Embassy is located in close proximity (1/2 mile radius) to several educational institutions and GOE facilities. The 2005 demonstrations/riots in response to dissatisfaction regarding local elections occurred within this radius. In early 2007 student demonstrations (not directed at the USG) at Addis Ababa University (located on the same road as the Embassy) hindered Embassy personnel coming/departing the compound. No Embassy locations or personnel were directly involved or adversely impacted by this situation. ¶K. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE SIZE OF AN ANTI-AMERICAN DEMONSTRATION? -N/A. No anti-American demonstrations within the past year. ¶L. ARE DEMONSTRATIONS GENERALLY VIOLENT OR PEACEFUL? -With the exception of the anti-GOE demonstrations in November 2005 and Addis Ababa University student demonstrations in early 2007, demonstrations and large public gatherings in Addis Ababa tend to be peaceful and well controlled. ¶M. IF VIOLENT, HAVE ANY DEMONSTRATIONS RESULTED IN DAMAGE TO USG PROPERTY? -No. See Item G above. -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MACRO CONFLICT CONDITIONS -------------- ¶A. IS THE HOST COUNTRY ENGAGED IN AN INTERSTATE OR INTRASTATE CONFLICT? -Yes. In response to threats to its security posed by extremists elements, in December 2006 the GOE initiated on-going military operations into Somalia. Ethiopia is also engaged in a border dispute with Eritrea. In August of 2008 the United Nations Mission for Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) ceased operations, primarily as a result of inability to resolve this dispute in an effective manner. While UNMEE's departure will most likely have little/no notable impact on the general security situation within Ethiopia, the absence of international observers at the Ethiopia-Eritrea border eliminates a mitigating (albeit ineffective) party to reduce the possibility of conflict in an area with significant tensions and troop presence on both sides of the border. There have been allegations by the Ethiopian Government the Eritrean Government has planned or supported terrorist attacks within Ethiopia as well as provided support to various anti-Ethiopian groups. The Ethiopian government is also currently engaged in an active counter-insurgency campaign throughout the Ogaden region, where they have encountered difficulties with various ethnic and opposition groups. Ethiopia is also experiencing difficulties with internal opposition groups; some are armed and have conducted hostile attacks (bombings) within Ethiopia during the past year, targeting Ethiopian interests. ¶B. IF AN INTRASTATE CONFLICT, IS IT LIMITED TO A SPECIFIC REGION OR IS IT A COUNTRYWIDE CIVIL WAR? -Conflict is primarily limited to the most south eastern (Somali-Ogaden region) and northern regions (Ethiopia-Eritrea border) of Ethiopia. During the past year there were several (approximately 9 to 10) notable bombing incidents in Ethiopia, most likely attributed to internal opposition groups. This was a reoccurrence of a trend of 40 to 50 similar bombing incidents that occurred in Addis Ababa during the period of April 2005 and November ¶2006. A notable change is the latest bombing was the targeting of crowded venues during business hours carried out in a manner to ensure greater causalities. ¶C. IF LIMITED TO A SPECIFIC REGION, ARE ANY U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES LOCATED IN THIS REGION? -There are no U.S. diplomatic facilities located outside of Addis Ababa. Combined Joint Task Force for Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) does maintain a presence (uniformed USDOD service personnel) and facility in Dire Dawa (South/East Ethiopia). The Embassy maintains 4 official locations (Embassy, USAID, CDC and GSO/Warehouse) and approximately 115 residential locations spread out over a 7-mile radius within Addis Ababa. Some of these locations are located in close proximity to the 2005 and 2006 demonstrations and bombings, although none were directly targeted or involved. Mission personnel travel on a daily basis the road where the May 20, 2008, bombing of a local mini bus occurred, resulting in the death/injury of several passengers (including one non-official American citizen). Mission personnel also frequent the area of Addis Ababa where the two April 14, 2008 gas station bombings occurred. ¶D. HAVE ANY FACTIONS INVOLVED IN INTRASTATE CONFLICTS SIGNALED OR DEMONSTRATED AN ANTI-AMERICAN ORIENTATION? -No. Although some groups associated with the conflict involving Somalia and Eritrea are not necessarily favorable towards Americans, overt anti-American sentiment rarely manifests itself in Ethiopia. -------------- ¶3. (SBU) HOST COUNTRY CAPABILITIES -------------- ¶A. ARE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES PROFESSIONAL AND WELL TRAINED? -Although Ethiopian law enforcement and security services fall short of meeting western standards in regards to training, they are reasonably competent and professional in comparison to other countries in the region and will provide all available resources/assistance within their capacity. ¶B. HAVE THEY BEEN TRAINED BY U.S. AGENCIES? IF SO, PLEASE ELABORATE ON THE EFFECTIVENESS OF TRAINING. -The GOE security services have received training from the USG, to include: - Leadership development, - Major case management, - Travel documents, - Counterfeiting, - Land border security, - Protective security detail operations, - Cyber-crimes, - Post-blast investigation, - Physical security of vital installations, - Preventing attacks on soft targets, - A variety of courses provided by the International Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA) in Botswana, During the past year an Ethiopian police officer graduated from the FBI National Academy. Ethiopians tend to be enthusiastic students and eager to learn. The training provided was appreciated and well received by the host country government and the individual students. Future training opportunities provided to the GOE will be worthwhile, appreciated and applied to good use. ¶C. ARE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES CONFRONTED WITH SERIOUS WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION WITHIN THEIR AGENCIES? -As most African nations, there is some corruption within the GOE's law enforcement and security services. Unlike many African countries, the level of corruption among GOE security and law enforcement services does not stymie efforts to enforce the law, ensure general security and public safety. Corruption within Ethiopia can be characterized as petty and cronyism. ¶D. ARE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES PROFESSIONAL AND CAPABLE OF DETERRING TERRORIST ACTIONS? -Generally GOE intelligence services are reasonably professional and capable of deterring terrorist actions. The GOE claimed to foil a terrorist attack by Eritreans targeting the African Union Summit in December 2006. During 2007 the GOE claimed to foil at least two separate terrorist attacks within Addis Ababa by internal opposition groups. ¶E. HAVE THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES BEEN COOPERATIVE WITH U.S. EMBASSY REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION AND SUPPORT? -The GOE intelligence and law enforcement services tend to be cooperative to the Embassy's request for information and support, within the limitations of their resources and abilities. ¶F. ASSUMING THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT TERRORIST THREATS IN RECENT YEARS, HAVE HOST COUNTRY SECURITY SERVICES BEEN ABLE TO SCORE ANY MAJOR ANTI-TERRORISM SUCCESSES? -Yes. In response to threats to its internal security posed by extremist elements based in Somalia, in late 2006 the GOE launched military operations into Somalia and diminished the capabilities of various individuals and organizations involved in terrorism. During 2007 the GOE claimed to uncover and foil at least two terrorist operations targeting Addis Ababa by internal opposition and Eritrean groups. The GOE also reports they have detained some of those responsible for the 2008 bombings. ¶G. HAS HOST COUNTRY BEEN RESPONSIVE (RE: TIMELINESS AND ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES) TO EMBASSY REQUEST FOR PROTECTIVE SECURITY? -Yes, the Ethiopian government has always proven themselves to be cooperative, professional and capable in accommodating any request for protective security. ¶H. HOW DOES THE EMBASSY ASSESS THE OVERALL SECURITY AT MAJOR AIRPORTS (EXCELLENT, VERY GOOD, GOOD/AVERAGE, POOR)? -Relative to other countries on the continent, security at Ethiopia's major airports is good. Access control and security screening measures are vigorously enforced. ¶I. HOW EFFECTIVE ARE CUSTOMS AND IMMIGRATIONS CONTROL AGENCIES? -Customs and immigration controls at Ethiopia's major airports and land border crossing are good. -Ethiopia lacks the resources to adequately ensure the security of its large land borders, especially in desolate/remote areas. -In response to concerns to its security, the GOE has established and operates security checkpoints on all major roads leading to Addis Ababa. Most commercial and some private vehicles are stopped and subject to inspection. While this effort is better then nothing and has yielded some success, it is impossible to reasonably inspect all vehicles, goods and individuals coming to Addis Ababa. -The GOE has expressed concern to Embassy officials regarding the integrity of border security on its border with Somalia. There are reports of trading routes that circumvent major roads and established checkpoints. -The Embassy has encountered problems on a regular basis involving the integrity of Ethiopian passports and identity documents. It is not difficult for individuals inclined to do so to obtain fraudulent passports and identity documents. ¶J. HOW EFFECTIVE ARE BORDER PATROL FORCES? -Ethiopia has a vast border, neighboring five other African nations (Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia and Kenya). Border patrol forces are reasonably effective at major/formal border crossing areas. However, a significant portion of Ethiopia's land borders are assessed as open and porous. -------------- - ¶4. (SBU) INDIGENOUS TERRORISM - ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS -------------- - ¶A. ARE THERE ANY INDIGENOUS ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS IN COUNTRY? -No. After the December 2006 invasion of Somalia by Ethiopia Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups publicly declared Ethiopia to be a viable target. ¶B. IF YES, HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS. -N/A ¶C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ANTI-AMERICAN ATTACKS WITHIN THE LAST 12 MONTHS? -No ¶D. WHERE ANY OF THESE ATTACKS LETHAL? -N/A ¶E. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. DIPLOMATIC TARGETS? -No ¶F. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. BUSINESS, U.S. MILITARY OR RELATED U.S. TARGETS? -No ¶G. HAVE GROUPS LIMITED THEIR ATTACKS TO SPECIFIC REGIONS OR DO THEY OPERATE COUNTRY-WIDE? -N/A ¶H. IF ATTACKS ARE LIMITED TO REGIONS, ARE THERE ANY U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES LOCATED IN THESE REGIONS? -N/A -------------- ¶5. (SBU) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS -------------- ¶A. ARE THERE ANY OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS (NOT ANTI-AMERICAN) IN COUNTRY? -No. There are several indigenous groups active in Ethiopia considered by the GOE to be terrorist organizations (Ogaden National Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front) that are not formally recognized by the USG as terrorist organizations. These groups have been reported to carry out attacks on Ethiopian interests and are of concern to the GOE. ¶B. IF YES, HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS. -See above ¶C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ANTI-AMERICAN ATTACKS WITHIN THE LAST 12 MONTHS? -During the past 12 months there have not been any attacks in Ethiopia targeting American interests; -In 2007 the ONLF carried out an attack against a Chinese oil drilling facility in the Ogaden region, resulting in the deaths of approximately 75 civilians. This attack was carried out after the ONLF issued warnings that foreigners who ventured into the Ogaden/Somali region to exploit natural resources would be targeted. During the past year at least two international U.S. oil companies (including one that employs American citizens) have expressed intentions of prospecting for oil in this region ¶D. WHERE ANY OF THESE LETHAL ATTACKS? -See above ¶E. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. DIPLOMATIC TARGETS? -No ¶F. HAVE GROUPS ATTACKED U.S. BUSINESS, U.S. MILITARY OR U.S. RELATED TARGETS? -No ¶G. HAVE GROUPS LIMITED THEIR ATTACKS TO SPECIFIC REASON OR DO THEY OPERATE COUNTRY-WIDE? -The ONLF has primarily carried out attacks in the Ogaden region. -There is speculation the ONLF or OLF is responsible for the bombings that occurred in Addis Ababa. ¶H. IF ATTACKS ARE LIMITED TO REGIONS, ARE THERE ANY U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES LOCATED IN THESE REGIONS? -N/A -------------- ¶6. (SBU) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS -------------- ¶A. ARE THERE OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS (NOT ANTI-AMERICAN) IN COUNTRY? -Yes ¶B. IF YES HOW MANY? PLEASE NAME GROUPS. -Ali Ithad Al Islamia (AIAI) -Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) - considered by the GOE to be a terrorist group -Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) - considered by the GOE to be a terrorist group ¶C. HAVE GROUPS CARRIED OUT ATTACKS IN THE CAPITAL OR IN AREAS WHERE U.S. DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES ARE LOCATED? -Yes. In 2007 the GOE claimed to have foiled a terrorist attack by Eritrean terrorist groups targeting the African Union summit in Addis Ababa. During a period 2005 and 2006 and 2008 Addis Ababa experienced a series of bombings attributed to the OLF. In 1996 AIAI placed and detonated bombs at two large hotels and attempted to assassinate the GOE Minister of Transportation in Addis Ababa. In 1996 an Egyptian extremist group attempted to assassinate visiting Egyptian president in Addis Ababa. These incidents took place near U.S diplomatic facilities and on routes regularly traveled by Mission personnel. ¶D. ARE THERE ANY SUSPECT NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS (NGOS) IN COUNTRY THAT HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH ANY OF THESE ORGANIZATIONS? -Unknown ¶E. ARE THERE ANY ETHNIC OR RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN COUNTRY THAT ARE SYMPATHETIC TO THESE GROUPS? -Ethiopia hosts a large ethnic Somali population, some of whom are possibly inclined to support extremists groups affected by the Ethiopia military operations into Somalia. ¶F. HOW DOES POST ASSESS THE LEVEL, INTENT AND SCOPE OF HOSTILE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES (IRAN, IRAQ, SYRIA, SERBIA, SUDAN, ETC) IN COUNTRY RELATIVE TO POTENTIAL ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST ACTS? -There have not been any anti-American terrorist attacks in Ethiopia in recent history. If the above hostile intelligence services are present in country, they do not appear to be actively targeting us. ¶G. HOW DOES POST ASSESS THE AVAILABILITY OF WEAPONS AND EXPLOSIVES IN COUNTRY OR FROM NEARBY COUNTRIES FOR HOSTILE TERRORIST ELEMENTS. -Weapons and explosives are readily available in Somalia, and could be easily smuggled into Ethiopia through the vast, open and porous land border. -There has been information Eritrea has provided weapons and explosives to various groups that do not view Ethiopia favorably. -Weapons and explosives are available within Ethiopia through underground suppliers. On a recent trip to a local market Embassy personnel reported observing live hand grenades for sale at a market stall. - Weapons and explosives are also available within Kenya Sudan and Djibouti through underground sources and could be smuggled into Ethiopia through the vast, open and porous land borders. -The bombings that occurred during 2005 to 2008 reportedly primarily involved C-4 type explosives. MALAC