ERITREAN OPPOSITION PARTIES AGREE TO FORM NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000216 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2018 TAGS: KDEM PREL PBTS ET ER SUBJECT: ERITREAN OPPOSITION PARTIES AGREE TO FORM NEW UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 84 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 3101 ¶C. ADDIS ABABA 3016 Classified By: Amb. Donald Yamamoto for Reason 1.4 (D). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. On January 24, Ambassador and Embassy Officers met with the newly appointed three-man Liaison Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) Secretariat--Hussein Khalifa of the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF),Mengesteab Asmerom of the Eritrean Liberation Front-Revolutionary Council (ELF-RC),and Nur Idris of the Eritrean Nahda Party (ENP)--to discuss the results of the Eritrean Democratic Alliance (EDA) constituent parties' January 15-18 opposition conference in Addis Ababa. Hussein said that the conference had been a success and that the EDA, now a grouping of 13 opposition parties, would hold an open congress beginning March 30 in Addis Ababa to stand up the new umbrella organization with participation from Eritrean civil society, religious groups, diplomatic missions, and the media. Mengesteab reported that the goal of the group was to overthrow the government of President Isaias by popular uprising. He said that Ethiopia did not want a war with Eritrea and all three leaders agreed that Eritreans would unite against any Ethiopian occupation, even if it was to oust Isaias. None of the three wanted to be seen as an Ethiopian puppet. Post recommends Washington consider providing a written statement and or sending USG representation to the upcoming conference. END SUMMARY. -------------- OPPOSITION TO HOLD CONGRESS ON MARCH 30 -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Hussein opened by announcing that the January 15-18 conference (REF A) successfully concluded with an agreement by the 11 Eritrean opposition parties of the EDA to form a new umbrella organization to be stood up at a March 30 congress in Addis Ababa. He noted that the two EDA Blocs agreed to reunite for the common purpose of overthrowing the regime of President Isaias. He said the parties recognized that their disunity was only benefiting Isaias and hurting the suffering Eritrean people. (Note: The EDA in February 2007 split into two factions, Bloc-I and Bloc-II when the parties were unable to agree on who to elect to the leadership. Mengesteab had been the leader of Bloc-I and Hussein had been the leader of Bloc-II. Nur is head of the ENP, the one EDA party that remained outside of the two blocs.) ¶3. (C/NF) Mengesteab added that two additional opposition parties, Adhanom Gebremariam's Eritrean People's Movement (EPM) and Hassan Salman's Islamic Congress Party (ICP) had accepted the EDA's invitation to join the larger group and would attend the upcoming congress. He said that the congress would be open and would include representatives from Eritrean civil society, religious figures, prominent personalities who had played a role in Eritrean affairs, diplomats, and international media. ¶4. (C/NF) Nur commented that preparatory committees would begin meeting in mid-February to prepare the group's charter, bylaws, and protocols for a transition plan for Eritrea once Isaias' regime is toppled for discussion and approval by the broader group at the March congress. The foundation documents of the former EDA would be used as a starting point, but he added that, "everything was on the table and open for discussion," including the name EDA. -------------- -------------- "OUR GOAL IS A PUBLIC UPRISING, NOT ETHIOPIAN INTERVENTION" -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) When queried concerning the strategy of the group, Mengesteab replied that the group sought to overthrow Isaias through a public uprising. He said that when the opposition was divided, the Eritrean people did not know who to support and therefore had not seriously resisted Isaias' government. Megesteab expressed hope that now with the ADDIS ABAB 00000216 002 OF 002 unification of the opposition the Eritrean people would be inspired to rise up. Nur added that the group's next step would be to garner support for the group from the Eritrean people, neighboring countries, and the international community. He noted that the new umbrella party would serve as an interim transitional government when Isaias was deposed. ¶6. (C/NF) Mengesteab emphasized that one should not expect to see an army of Eritrean rebels seeking to confront the Eritrean government in a conventional type war, rather the opposition would use propaganda to help inform the people and motivate them to resist. He said the group's limited military capability would be used primarily for self-protection as teams crossed the border supplying information and support to Eritrean opposition members inside Eritrea. He underscored that the group did not want to make an enemy of the Eritrean army, but to win them over so that when the uprising came the army would be an ally or at least stand aside. ¶7. (C/NF) When queried whether the unification of the Eritrean opposition might encourage the Ethiopian government to remove Isaias by force and install the new umbrella party into power, all three leaders stressed that only the Eritrean people were responsible for any change of government in Asmara. Mengesteab asserted that Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles does not want war with Eritrea and that it was not in Ethiopia's interest to do so. He stressed that the Eritrean people were fiercely nationalistic and that they would unite to fight any Ethiopian occupation. The leaders also agreed that in such a scenario, the new umbrella group would appear to the Eritrean people as an Ethiopian puppet which would undermine the its credibility. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Eritrean opposition leaders are clearly sensitive to suggestions that they are tools of the Ethiopian government. They claim to understand that they are risking support from the Eritrean people by appearing too close to Addis Ababa. However, the warming of relations between Asmara and Khartoum over the last two years, and the resulting restrictions on Eritrean opposition activities by the Sudanese government, has helped push the opposition to deal more closely with Ethiopia. ¶9. (C/NF) COMMENT CONTINUED. The upcoming March opposition congress represents a reasonable chance for the emergence of a truly unified Eritrean opposition that could form the building blocks of a new democratic Eritrean government if the parties are able to overcome a legacy of factionalization and infighting. Historically, the EDA never functioned as a unified entity under a common leadership and existed in name only. The addition of Adhanom's EPM and Hassen's IPC to the alliance -- the last two significant holdout parties -- represents the unification of all of the leading parties on both sides of their historic divide between the parties who split from the original Eritrean Liberation Front who were driven out of Eritrea by Isaias during the revolution and the parties who are made up of former members of Isaias' party and government. Post recommends Washington consider providing a written statement and or sending USG representation as an observer to the upcoming congress as a way of sending a strong message in support of democracy and good governance for the Eritrean people. END COMMENT. YAMAMOTO