ETHIOPIA-ERITREA: UNMEE'S LIQUIDATION UNDERWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002157

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA-ERITREA: UNMEE'S LIQUIDATION UNDERWAY

Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reason: 1.4 (B).


1. (C) SUMMARY. In the final "Friends of the United
Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)" meeting on
August 4, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary
General Azouz Ennifar told the diplomatic community that
UNMEE did not fail at its job, rather it performed its
mission well and as best it could under the circumstances.
Ennifar and the Acting Force Commander Brigadier General
Patrick Davidson-Houston briefed that as of mid-July the
border appeared calm, but noted that UNMEE no longer had any
visibility on the border. Ennifar said that he expected
UNMEE's liquidation to take less than three months, and that
most UN staff would be out of Ethiopia within one month. END
SUMMARY.

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"UNMEE DID NOT FAIL IN ITS MISSION"
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2. (C) Ennifar opened the meeting by declaring that UNMEE
had performed its mission well and did not fail. He said
UNMEE did everything it was asked to do, but that border
demarcation was the responsibility of the Eritrea-Ethiopia
Boundary Commission (EEBC) and the Ethiopian and Eritrean
governments. He went on to note that there had been no war
because the two sides did not want to fight, but that UNMEE
helped ease tensions on the ground by mediating when there
were border incidents. He stressed that there times when the
UN Security Council should have taken bolder action,
particularly in 2005 when Eritrea began imposing serious
restrictions on UNMEE.

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"BORDER APPEARS CALM, BUT WE ARE NOW BLIND"
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3. (C) Ennifar and the Acting Force Commander Brigadier
General Patrick Davidson-Houston briefed that the border
appeared calm, but noted that all monitoring of the border
effectively ended in mid-July. The Force Commander
emphasized that UNMEE no longer had any ability to determine
what was happening. Ennifar added that at this point, "we
can only hope wisdom prevails" and the two sides refrain from
fighting. The Force Commander said that it was difficult to
determine what impact UNMEE's departure would have on the
border situation. He thought that the risk of conflict might
have increased slightly, although he could not say to what
extent. The Force Commander said there would be "no war
tomorrow just because we left," but he opined that there was
a greater possibility of a small incident escalating without
UNMEE.

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UNMEE LIQUIDATION TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THREE MONTHS
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4. (C) Ennifar said that liquidation of a UN mission
normally takes three months, but that UNMEE would try to do
it in less time because the restrictions on the mission in
Eritrea, particularly the lack of fuel, were difficult on the
staff and they needed to get out. Of UNMEE's remaining
equipment, most of which was in Eritrea (including 400
vehicles),some would be transferred to other missions, some
would shipped to a UN storage facility in Italy, some would
be sold locally, and some would simply be left behind because
it was too worn out to justify shipping it elsewhere. Addis
Ababa Head of Office Joseph Stephanides said that any
sensitive communication equipment would be destroyed rather
than sold to Eritrea. Ennifar said that the Eritean
government was demanding that UN equipment could only be sold
for hard currency, effectively meaning only the Eritrean
government could buy UN items. He said many details needed
to be worked out with Eritrea if any equipment was to be sold
to them.


5. (C) On the Ethiopian side, the military observers had
already begun leaving and most would be gone by the end of
August. Ennifar expected that all UN staff, except for a
small number of administrators, would have departed Ethiopia
within a month. Ennifar and Stephanides would depart by
mid-August. A rear party from the Indian contingent in
Adigrat would remain behind until all of their contingent own

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equipment had been packed up and shipped to Djibouti.
Ennifar added that all UNMEE demining and humanitarian
activities were finished as well.

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COMMENT
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6. (C/NF) Post assesses that UNMEE's departure does not
increase the risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
We have seen no evidence to suggest that UNMEE was ever a
deterrent to conflict; rather, the Ethiopian government has
refrained from war because it judged that war was not in its
interest. We expect Ethiopia and Eritrea to continue with
the status quo, each side attempting to weaken the other
through indirect means. However, the absence of UNMEE does
deny us, through various channels, a key source of
information on border activity. Without UNMEE our ability to
warn of impending conflict, should either side decide to act,
is significantly reduced, and it is easily conceivable that
we would not know of war until after it had begun. Post will
attempt to establish new and alternative means, perhaps
broader political contacts with refugee servicing
organziations, to track and assess dynamics along Ethiopia's
northern border. END COMMENT.
MALAC