ETHIOPIA-ERITREA: UNMEE'S LIQUIDATION UNDERWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002157 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA-ERITREA: UNMEE'S LIQUIDATION UNDERWAY Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reason: 1.4 (B). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. In the final "Friends of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)" meeting on August 4, Acting Special Representative of the Secretary General Azouz Ennifar told the diplomatic community that UNMEE did not fail at its job, rather it performed its mission well and as best it could under the circumstances. Ennifar and the Acting Force Commander Brigadier General Patrick Davidson-Houston briefed that as of mid-July the border appeared calm, but noted that UNMEE no longer had any visibility on the border. Ennifar said that he expected UNMEE's liquidation to take less than three months, and that most UN staff would be out of Ethiopia within one month. END SUMMARY. -------------- "UNMEE DID NOT FAIL IN ITS MISSION" -------------- ¶2. (C) Ennifar opened the meeting by declaring that UNMEE had performed its mission well and did not fail. He said UNMEE did everything it was asked to do, but that border demarcation was the responsibility of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC) and the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments. He went on to note that there had been no war because the two sides did not want to fight, but that UNMEE helped ease tensions on the ground by mediating when there were border incidents. He stressed that there times when the UN Security Council should have taken bolder action, particularly in 2005 when Eritrea began imposing serious restrictions on UNMEE. -------------- "BORDER APPEARS CALM, BUT WE ARE NOW BLIND" -------------- ¶3. (C) Ennifar and the Acting Force Commander Brigadier General Patrick Davidson-Houston briefed that the border appeared calm, but noted that all monitoring of the border effectively ended in mid-July. The Force Commander emphasized that UNMEE no longer had any ability to determine what was happening. Ennifar added that at this point, "we can only hope wisdom prevails" and the two sides refrain from fighting. The Force Commander said that it was difficult to determine what impact UNMEE's departure would have on the border situation. He thought that the risk of conflict might have increased slightly, although he could not say to what extent. The Force Commander said there would be "no war tomorrow just because we left," but he opined that there was a greater possibility of a small incident escalating without UNMEE. -------------- -------------- UNMEE LIQUIDATION TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THREE MONTHS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Ennifar said that liquidation of a UN mission normally takes three months, but that UNMEE would try to do it in less time because the restrictions on the mission in Eritrea, particularly the lack of fuel, were difficult on the staff and they needed to get out. Of UNMEE's remaining equipment, most of which was in Eritrea (including 400 vehicles),some would be transferred to other missions, some would shipped to a UN storage facility in Italy, some would be sold locally, and some would simply be left behind because it was too worn out to justify shipping it elsewhere. Addis Ababa Head of Office Joseph Stephanides said that any sensitive communication equipment would be destroyed rather than sold to Eritrea. Ennifar said that the Eritean government was demanding that UN equipment could only be sold for hard currency, effectively meaning only the Eritrean government could buy UN items. He said many details needed to be worked out with Eritrea if any equipment was to be sold to them. ¶5. (C) On the Ethiopian side, the military observers had already begun leaving and most would be gone by the end of August. Ennifar expected that all UN staff, except for a small number of administrators, would have departed Ethiopia within a month. Ennifar and Stephanides would depart by mid-August. A rear party from the Indian contingent in Adigrat would remain behind until all of their contingent own ADDIS ABAB 00002157 002 OF 002 equipment had been packed up and shipped to Djibouti. Ennifar added that all UNMEE demining and humanitarian activities were finished as well. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Post assesses that UNMEE's departure does not increase the risk of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. We have seen no evidence to suggest that UNMEE was ever a deterrent to conflict; rather, the Ethiopian government has refrained from war because it judged that war was not in its interest. We expect Ethiopia and Eritrea to continue with the status quo, each side attempting to weaken the other through indirect means. However, the absence of UNMEE does deny us, through various channels, a key source of information on border activity. Without UNMEE our ability to warn of impending conflict, should either side decide to act, is significantly reduced, and it is easily conceivable that we would not know of war until after it had begun. Post will attempt to establish new and alternative means, perhaps broader political contacts with refugee servicing organziations, to track and assess dynamics along Ethiopia's northern border. END COMMENT. MALAC