ETHIOPIA NOT LEAVING SOMALIA YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L ADDIS ABABA 002122 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E, AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA NOT LEAVING SOMALIA YET REF: NAIROBI 1885 Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reason: 1.4 (B). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. Ethiopian MFA Acting Chief of the Foreign Minister's Cabinet Abdetta Dribssa told PolOff on August 1 that the Ethiopian government had not yet made a decision whether to withdraw its military forces from Mogadishu or Somalia, but he emphasized that his government was increasingly frustrated with the failure of Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur Adde to work together and, "make the TFG work." END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- ETHIOPIA INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH TFG LEADERS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Abdetta said that the Ethiopian government was in the midst of an intense debate over how to proceed regarding the failure of President Yusuf and Prime Minister Nur Adde to work together, particularly regarding the attempt by the Prime Minister to fire Mohammed Dheere, the Mayor of Mogadishu and key Yusuf ally. Abdetta admitted that his government had told Yusuf that the Ethiopian military would withdraw from Somalia if Yusuf and Nur Adde were not able, "to get on the same page" and work this out. Abdetta said the Ethiopian government was highly frustrated with both leaders and queried, "why should our boys die while those two (Yusuf and Nur Adde) play games?" Abdetta stated that Yusuf refuses to support Dheere's firing, and Yusuf told the Ethiopians that Dheere would be fired over his dead body. Abdetta said that Yusuf is using Dheere to try to impeach the Prime Minister and noted that Dheere had been given $350,000 USD for that effort. Yusuf thinks that Dheere's removal was an attempt to weaken him by the Prime Minister. ¶3. (C/NF) When queried whether the Ethiopian government supported Dheere's removal, Abdetta responded indirectly and said that Dheere was useful in the past for bringing security to Mogadishu, but no longer. He went on to say that a new administration needed to be established in Banadir, and that Dheere would not be useful there. Abdetta said that Ethiopia's primary objective was to get Yusuf and Nur Adde on the same page regardless of their final decision on Dheere. He declined to speculate on what would happen next if the two leaders remained at odds. PolOff stressed that it was vital that the Ethiopian government continue to support the TFG and remain in Somalia for now. Abdetta responded by asking that since the international community had done almost nothing to support Ethiopia in Somalia why should Ethiopia continue, "when Somalia is not our country?" -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) The Ethiopian government is not ready to leave Somalia, or Mogadishu, yet, but their level of frustration and disgust with the TFG is greater than at any time in the past. The threat to withdraw demonstrates just how far their relationship with President Yusuf has deteriorated, and Ethiopian officials regularly assail the Prime Minister for his failure to stay in Mogadishu and conduct the business of government. Ethiopia has strong national security interests that will require its continued involvement in Somalia, and it does not appear that Ethiopia has yet developed a "plan B" if the TFG collapses. A complete withdrawal from Somalia does not solve Ethiopia's security problems and leaves a vacuum for al-Shabab, other insurgents, and the Islamic Courts to fill. Therefore, Ethiopia is most likely to continue to support the TFG for a while longer, assuming there is a TFG to support. We expect, however, that Ethiopia is working hard on plan B. END COMMENT. MALAC