Ethiopia Now Opposes UN Follow-on Mission, for Now

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001918 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPKO PBTS PGOV MOPS ET SUBJECT: Ethiopia Now Opposes UN Follow-on Mission, for Now REF: ADDIS 1856 Summary: -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador that Ethiopia now opposes any UN follow-on mission upon the conclusion of UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) operations on July 31. Meles echoed the Foreign Minister's position (reftel)that Eritrea had so completely undercut the Algiers process and was in clear violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement without any sanctions or pressure from the Security Council that Ethiopia did not see why a UN follow-on Mission only in Ethiopia would be useful. A follow-on Mission would be used by some Security Council members to push Ethiopia on the border dispute without any consequences for Eritrea. To avoid the UNSC giving Eritrea "unnecessary attention" and complicit acceptance, or at least minimal criticism, for limiting UN operations while Ethiopia continues engaging the UNSC without much benefit, Meles believes allowing UNMEE to end with no follow-on mission would be the best course. The Ambassador argued against it because it would deny Ethiopia's ability to articulate and get its position heard by the UNSC. Discussions with the Ethiopians on a follow-on mission or post UNMEE operation will have to wait until after July 31 expiration of the UNMEE mandate. End Summary. No UN follow-on Mission: -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador July 11, with DATT and another U.S. military officer present, that Ethiopia did not see any use in a UN follow-on mission only in Ethiopia after UNMEE's mandate expired on July 31. Echoing what Foreign Minister Seyoum told the Ambassador last week (reftel),the Prime Minister explained that Ethiopia now saw no benefit to such a UN mission. Meles said he saw some members of the UNSC using a follow-on mission as a means to hold Ethiopia, but not Eritrea, to a resolution of the border. A follow-on mission would have no consequences for Eritrea as Eritrea can unilaterally criticize Ethiopia without pressure from the UNSC. ¶3. (SBU) Further, Meles said Ethiopia was perplexed by the lack of UNSC action against Eritrea given its clear violation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, ouster of U.S. and European peacekeepers last year and now ouster of UNMEE. Eritrean actions have made the Algiers Accord unworkable and unenforceable. Ethiopia has come to the conclusion that a follow-on mission only in Ethiopia would yield no benefit to Ethiopia. The continued discussion of the border has encouraged Eritrea to act recklessly through incursion of Djiboutian territory, infringement of Ethiopian territory, raising border tensions through militarizing the neutral Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) and confronting Ethiopian troops. The best avenue for Ethiopia is to let the UN dissolve UNMEE. With no UNMEE or UNSC discussion of the border, Meles said he hoped the UN would then focus on the more important problems in the Sudan and Somalia. Minimizing "attention" on the border would deny President Isaias a "stage" to take provocative actions and Meles believed this situation would then help lessen tensions along the border. ¶4. (SBU) Meles said Ethiopia would continue to welcome any envoy or team from the UN and remains open, at a later date, to discussions with the UN on the border issue and, more important, direct discussions with Eritrea to resolve their bilateral problems. Meles added that Isaias is avoiding discussion of the border and trying to normalize relations as articulated and supported by the witnesses in February 2006. Letting UNMEE's mandate expire and a period of "quiet" in which the border issue was not discussed may help calm the situation and force Isaias to deal with Ethiopia in a constructive manner rather than a hostile confrontation. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Post still believes it would be useful for the UNSC to dispatch a team to the parties, even though Eritrea would likely reject seeing a UN team, to discuss the post UNMEE period and the conditions under which the UN can reengage the parties. The Ambassador pressed Prime Minister Meles to accept a UN follow-on mission because it would help articulate for the UNSC concerns held by Ethiopia while Eritrea would be viewed as non-compliant on the border. Discussions on a post-UNMEE scenario (with Ethiopia) will have to wait until after the expiration of the UNMEE mandate on July ¶31. End Comment. YAMAMOTO