UNITY FOR DEMOCRACY & JUSTICE (UDJ): KEEPING HOPE FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001733 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ET SUBJECT: UNITY FOR DEMOCRACY & JUSTICE (UDJ): KEEPING HOPE FOR ETHIOPIAN DEMOCRACY ALIVE REF: ADDIS 145 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On June 24, 2008 PolCouns met with Dr. Yacob Hailemariam, the Head of Foreign Affairs of the newly formed opposition political party, Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ). UDJ is unique as its supporters represent most major ethnic groups and its leadership is composed of most major leaders from the former Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD),which successfully campaigned and saw a significant victory in the 2005 elections. After its first meeting was shut down by the federal police, UDJ managed to hold its founding Congress on June 18, 2008. ¶2. (SBU) The party's platform is based on three major principles: 1) national appeal; 2) democratic values; and 3) peaceful means of struggle. UDJ expressed a willingness to join an opposition coalition in the long-term, but only with non-violent groups that respect the constitution of the FDRE. UDJ also expressed concern that the National Electoral Board (NEB) and ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) may attempt to block finalization of its party registration process. UDJ appealed to the USG to advocate for a re-opening of political space to ensure that the 2010 elections are not a repeat of the 2005 electoral turmoil. If the upcoming elections are not free and fair, Dr. Yacob believes the consequences will be violent and dire for the country. WHAT MAKES UDJ DIFFERENT: THE PARTY PLATFORM -------------- ¶3. (SBU) UDJ is a national party, not an ethnic one, with members from Amhara, Oromiya, Tigray, Somali, Southern Nations, and Afar regions. Dr. Yacob strongly criticizes the EPDRF's tactics of injecting ethnic loyalties into politics, citing how it has dangerously divided the country. Since the party is relatively new and still is not finally registered with the NEB, the amount of outreach UDJ is able to do is modest; Dr. Yacob admits there is much room for improvement. But one of the party's first priorities after becoming registered is to open offices throughout Ethiopia, paying careful attention to include those not typically represented, including regions on the periphery, Muslims, the youth, and women (it is notable that the UDJ chairperson is a woman, Birtukan Midekssa). Although there are some Muslim members, UDJ looks to target greater Muslim representation. �A;¶4. (U) UDJ is highly committed to democratic principles, Dr. Yacob argued. In addition to advocating democratic values and human rights in Ethiopia, as do many opposition parties, Dr. Yacob argued that the party itself is run by far more democratic principles and procedures than other political parties. Every member has a right to express his or her opinions without sanctions for dissent. ¶5. (U) Dr. Yacob emphasized that UDJ is committed to peaceful means of struggle and is categorically non-violent. "We don't believe government should be changed by the gun," Dr. Yacob stated. "Even if armed struggle were feasible," he noted, "we do not accept it as a tactic as it would have devastating impacts for the country." He was also adamant about the UDJ not being affiliated with other opposition groups that have expressed willingness to employ violence as a political tactic. Dr. Yacob was clear in noting that UDJ has no contact with either armed insurgent groups like the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) or Dr. Berhanu Nega, 2005 mayor-elect of Addis Ababa who reportedly recently initiated dialogue with the OLF. WILL SEPARATE OPPOSITION GROUPS SPLIT THE VOTE? -------------- -- ¶6. (SBU) When asked about the potential for allying with other opposition parties, Dr. Yacob thought it was too ambitious in the short-term since UDJ is still a fledgling group. But in the long-term, he saw great potential for a large-scale opposition coalition to dislodge the EDPRF in the 2010 elections. However, there were many caveats to UDJ joining a coalition. Dr. Yacob emphasized that UDJ is only willing to ally with parties that subscribe to its own core values; which essentially leaves no room for coalitions with parties that do not adhere to a strict policy of non-violence. Still, he acknowledged that forming a coalition with other opposition groups in the medium term may prove an attractive option to the electorate -- as CUD did in 2005 -- and would eliminate the threat of splitting the vote among too many small groups ADDIS ABAB 00001733 002 OF 002 POTENTIAL ROADBLOCK: THE NEB -------------- ¶7. (SBU) UDJ has submitted its application to the NEB and is currently awaiting final registration. Dr. Yacob insisted that there should be no reason for the NEB to reject or even postpone the application, since UDJ was very meticulous about doing everything according to the law. Therefore, a rejection of UDJ's application would be a "flagrant violation of the law," according to Dr. Yacob. UDJ is willing to make whatever amendments the NEB requires, but the party is very concerned about being thwarted by the NEB and EPDRF. WHAT CAN THE USG DO FOR ETHIOPIA'S DEMOCRATIZATION? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Dr. Yacob asked the USG to appeal to EPDRF to re-open political space to ensure that the 2010 elections will be free and fair. "This country is becoming a police state," he said, "and if the EPDRF listens to anyone, it's the U.S." He reiterated several times throughout the meeting that UDJ only wants to come to power through democratic means, and he asked the USG to help ensure that that would be possible. ¶9. (SBU) Dr. Yacob also appealed to PolCouns to ensure that UDJ's application was fairly and neutrally considered by the NEB. PolCouns assured Yacob that he and the Ambassador would highlight to the NEB in their July 1 meeting that we are watching UDJ's registration process and expect it to be quick and transparent. ¶10. (SBU) Dr. Yacob believed that the USG never identified its interests within the former CUD party. Pointing out that many of the UDJ leaders were educated in America and many of their children are U.S. citizens, he attempted to illustrate how closely aligned UDJ is with U.S. interests. "We are Jeffersonian Democrats; Meles is a Communist," he stated. He added that UDJ only wants the same democratic principles for Ethiopia on which the U.S. was founded. GRIM PREDICTIONS IF 2010 ELECTIONS ARE REPEAT OF 2005 -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) When asked to predict the consequences of 2010 elections if the ruling party does not alter its current tactics of harassment and intimidation, Dr. Yacob bluntly stated, "If we don't have free elections in 2010, I don't know what will happen to this country." However, he was certain there would be a violent reaction from voters. Increased poverty, food shortages, and inflation are all important issues at stake in the upcoming elections. They are also likely to exacerbate people's anger if they believe elections were not free and fair, leading to a violent backlash. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Within the confines of Ethiopia's ever-shrinking political space, UDJ has somehow found enough room to form a truly national opposition party. UDJ is a party comprised of well-educated, impressive leaders espousing democratic principles, and reaching beyond the Ethiopian tradition of ethnic loyalties or cults of personality. It is definitely a step in the right direction for Ethiopian politics, and will undoubtedly provide an attractive alternative to voters in 2010. YAMAMOTO