AMBASSADOR SETS DEMOCRATIC SPACE MARKER WITH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001592 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PBTS ET SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR SETS DEMOCRATIC SPACE MARKER WITH TIGRAY'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS REF: A. ADDIS 1259 ¶B. ADDIS 1223 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) In a June 3-4 visit to Tigray, Ambassador conveyed a clear message of concern over political space and the need for the core ruling party, the Tigrean People's Liberation Front (TPLF),to ease its stranglehold on civil society and the political opposition in order to maintain stability in Ethiopia. While the Ambassador, accompanied by the French and UK Ambassadors, had noted his concerns on May 9 to Prime Minister Meles (ref. A),the meetings with five TPLF Central Committee members in Tigray further aimed to insert into the Central Committee's discussions international concern about Ethiopia's stability in the absence of political openings and the likely development impacts of pending civil society legislation (ref. B). Ambassador also took advantage of the opportunity to urge Ethiopia to shift its stance on the Ethiopia-Eritrea border to one focused on acceptance of "demarcation" to be implemented through dialogue, instead of the current focus on dialogue in place of the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission's (EEBC) "virtual" demarcation directive. End Summary. ¶2. (U) The Ambassador and Political Counselor paid courtesy visits on five TPLF Central Committee members in Ethiopia's Tigray region June 3-4. In addition to courtesy calls on Tigray Regional Vice President Abadi Zemo, the Tigray region's TPLF Party President Tewodros Hagos, Speaker of the House of the Tigray Regional Council Wolderufael Alemayehu, and Mayor of Mekele Fisseha Zerihun, the Ambassador and USAID Director spent five hours with TPLF Central Committee member Teklewoini Assefa who is also the Executive Director of the TPLF's NGO the Relief Society of Tigray (REST). AMBASSADOR TELLS CENTRAL COMMITTEE: STABILITY IS AT STAKE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ambassador Yamamoto raised U.S. and international concerns over the stability implications of the mounting political frustration stemming from the lack of opposition supporters' ability to genuinely express their dissent with the ruling party. The Ambassador stressed the USG's desire to work with Ethiopian political parties and the National Electoral Board to improve democratic institutions in Ethiopia. Abadi was clear that Ethiopia is learning lessons from other African countries' failed attempts to emulate western-style democracy. Abadi argued that the "Ethiopian opposition wants democracy as they see it in the West, but that won't work." "If we don't address the fundamental problems, our strategy will not succeed," he continued "but our strategy is only intended for a few years until we can overcome the bottleneck." "Without the EPRDF," Abadi concluded "Ethiopia will revert to where it was 30 years ago." The Ambassador retorted that it is imperative that the people feel that their voices are heard and their civil rights are respected. ¶4. (SBU) The Ambassador expressed specific concern to regional Vice President Abadi, Speaker Wolderufael, and REST Executive Director Teklewoini that the Ethiopian Government's (GoE) draft civil society organizations (CSO) law is "confusing, restricts foreign assistance programs and operations" and may impact a huge portion of the $700 million in U.S. assistance given to Ethiopia. Having received clear talking points from the ruling party, both Abadi and Teklewoini argued that the law will not impact genuine development-oriented NGOs or activities, and would actually increase the impacts of foreign assistance. Both were clear that the law would eliminate foreign funding to "advocacy" efforts as such activities are the exclusive right of Ethiopian citizens and should not be influenced by foreigners. Abadi was clear that "if foreign assistance does not contribute to development efforts or add value to Ethiopia, it should be ended." As his hard-line credentials emerged, Abadi argued that "no one can push a country around to make it do what it doesn't want" and "serious donors will change the focus of their assistance to contribute to real development." Both Abadi and Teklewoini dismissed Ethiopian, as well as international, NGOs' concerns as "emotional ADDIS ABAB 00001592 002 OF 003 responses" from organizations solely focused on bringing in more money for their programs. Teklewoini argued that opposition political parties have, and will continue to, receive capacity building support from NGOs and other groups. Teklewoini saw no problem with the opposition, but he cautioned that the financial support the opposition received from the diaspora in the U.S. was wrong and needed to be monitored. BORDER: PRESS TO IMPLEMENT DEMARCATION THROUGH DIALOGUE -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Amb was told over dinner by Vice President Abadi Zemo and USAID sponsored NGO (Relief Society of Tigray) chief Teklewoini Assefa, both central committee members of the TPLF, that the Eritrea problem was severely hurting investment and economic development in Tigray. They wanted the border conflict ended peacefully because they saw another war as far worse, for now. They severely criticized the UN and international community for not helping to resolve the conflict through PM Meles, constructive dialogue approach which would resolve the consequences of demarcation and allow both sides to come to terms on a demarcation plan that would work and avoid war. Amb stated that the EEBC made a decision and if Ethiopia clearly came out in favor of &demarcation8 and implementing a demarcation plan through dialogue, that could have some positive effect on the UN which sees the EEBC decision as the only solution. CENTRAL COMMITTEE PERSONALITIES -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Although Ambassador sought to meet with Tigray Regional President and TPLF Central Committee member Tsegay Berhe, Tsegaye was called to Addis Ababa the day before the visit. Still, Ambassador was able to meet with the following TPLF Central Committee members resident in Tigray: -- Abadi Zemo - Tigray Regional Vice President: Ato Abadi fought as a member of the TPLF during the struggle to topple the Derg. He lost his left arm in combat. Abadi has a strong command of English and clearly conveys TPLF talking points through a tone suggesting a strong personal support for their positions. Abadi appears in his mid-fifties, wears glasses, and drinks whiskey (Johnny Walker black label was served at dinner). -- Teklewoini Assefa - Executive Director of the Relief Society of Tigray (REST): Ato Teklewoini met Prime Minister Meles and other TPLF founders while a student at Addis Ababa University (AAU) in the early 1970s where he studies physical sciences. When the Derg came to power, he left AAU before graduating and taught high school science in Asmara. As a TPLF combatant, Teklewoini lost his right ring finger above the second knuckle. From the early-1980s, Teklewoini focused his work on the TPLF's development/relief organization, the Relief Society of Tigray. Teklewoini was intent in noting that before becoming Senior NSC Director for Africa in Washington in the 1990s, Gail Smith worked for three years for REST, working, eating, and sleeping with the TPLF's relief arm. Teklewoini also noted that USAID began funneling humanitarian and relief assistance through REST in 1985 -- six years before the TPLF came to power -- to respond to the needs of the Ethiopian people in TPLF-controlled territory in Ethiopia. While historically a strong TPLF-supporter, Teklewoini is reported to have only become a member of the Central Committee in 2001 when he became a vocal supporter of the TPLF taking a harsh stance against those who opposed Meles in the party's historic 2001 rift. This perception was reinforced when, in response to PolChief's inquiry of his view of former Central Committee members Seeye Abraha and Gebru Asrat, Teklewoini aggressively dismissed the two as meaningless "dead wood" that never sink and keep popping back up. While a close AmCit NGO official had conveyed to Post that Teklewoini had grave reservations about the draft CSO law, his staunch support for the draft as conveyed to Ambassador demonstrates his commitment to, and the discipline within, the party. Teklewoini is a roughly 60 year old, approximately 5' 5" man with impeccable English, who eschewed Johnny Walker for red wine. -- Wolderufael Alemayehu - Speaker of the House of the Tigray ADDIS ABAB 00001592 003 OF 003 Regional Council: Perhaps a strong and/or compelling leader in his native tongue or a commanding force on local issues, but Ato Wolderufael was a quiet and reserved interlocutor with Ambassador. While relatively well informed about major themes in the bilateral dialogue, Wolderufael delivered the party's talking points but lacked passion or grit. Instead of refuting the Ambassador's pointed comments of concern over political space, Wolderufael simply replied with dispassionate statements about free and fair elections and the rule of law in Ethiopia. -- Tewodros Hagos - Tigray region's TPLF Party President: Certainly the party leader, when Ato Tewodros entered the room, all other party members stood and greeted him like a godfather. Executive Director of REST before Teklewoini, Tewodros now focuses his efforts on internal TPLF party strengthening and outreach. While Teklewoini aggressively dismissed expelled former Central Committee members Seeye and Gebru, Tewodros delivered a much more nuanced and subtle argument against the two -- equally as damning yet delivered with the eloquence of a clear party leader. -- Fisseha Zerihun - Mayor of Mekele: Formerly the Mayor of Dire Dawa, Ato Fisseha only recently replaced Kidusan Nega (Sebhat Nega's sister) as Mayor of Mekele. Perhaps that explains his early and frequent deference to his technical staff to reply to simple questions on local dynamics. Regardless, Fisseha's lack of awareness on national and bilateral themes combined with his detached engagement suggest that the underweight forty-something mayor with strong-yet-unpolished English is a less than wholly influential leader. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The purpose of Ambassador's trip to Mekele -- to convey U.S. and international concerns about political space in the run-up to 2010 national elections and insert news of this concern into the TPLF Central Committee's discussions -- was certainly achieved. The visit showed Wolderufael and Fisseha to be marginal players, Tewodros to be influential, Abadi to be a hard-liner, and Teklewoini a potential advocate (due to REST's receipt of roughly $30 million per year in U.S. food aid) as Post and the USG engage Ethiopia's ruling elites to prompt democratic reforms. The visit made clear to Post that the TPLF has redoubled efforts to maintain party discipline in support of the fast moving CSO law. Ambassador and Post will continue to seek out new and creative ways to further convey U.S. regional stability concerns to ruling party officials to help encourage a re-opening of Ethiopia's political space before its closure prompts increased domestic instability as the country approaches its next major political test in the 2010 national elections. End Comment. YAMAMOTO