UNMEE: A FORCE IN NEED OF A MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001494 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E, AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SUBJECT: UNMEE: A FORCE IN NEED OF A MISSION Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reason 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On May 17-18, PolOff and visiting Eritrea Desk Officer visited United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) headquarters in Adigrat, Ethiopia and learned that Ethiopian military activity had declined following a burst of movement in April, when several Ethiopian military units moved closer to the border following UNMEE's withdrawal from Eritrea. After UNMEE left Eritrea, UNMEE headquarters reconfigured its border operations and restricted United Nations Military Observers (UNMOs) from liaising with Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) units along the border to avoid appearing biased against Ethiopia. UN staff at Adigrat said that UNMEE would be able to detect a planned Ethiopian attack against Eritrea, but would not see indicators of an Eritrean attack or detect attacks involving Ethiopian units closest to the border. UNMO staff noted that if there were to be a new, smaller UN observer mission, it would need a limited force protection component and medical facilities. END SUMMARY. -------------- - ALL IS (RELATIVELY) QUIET ON THE CENTRAL FRONT -------------- - ¶2. (C) The senior UNMOs at Adigrat briefed that Ethiopian military activity had settled to a minimum in late May following the few weeks of increased activity during April, when some ENDF units and armor relocated closer to the border in reaction to Eritrean army occupation of UNMEE's abandoned team sites in the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ). The UNMOs noted that the large ENDF military hospital at Adi Hageray remained unoccupied in caretaker status. ¶3. (C) The UNMOs expected that, as with past years, the imminent June-September rainy season would significantly reduce military activity on both sides of the border as the heavy rains will make many roads and stream crossings difficult to traverse and occasionally impassable. The UNMOs noted that most of the roads near the border are unpaved. ¶4. (C) Embassy officers traveled the road from Mekele to Adigrat, and although passing multiple ENDF installations, saw little military activity or traffic. The large military base just outside Mekele where the Northern Command's 
military truck transport regiment is housed showed no activity and its normal complement of several hundred trucks were parked in their shelters. UNMOs assess that the ENDF would need to use these trucks in the event of a planned offensive and consider high activity at the Mekele base to be a key indicator of Ethiopian intentions. -------------- UNMEE FORCED TO RECONFIGURE OPERATIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) Because of UNMEE's forced reconfiguration following its withdrawal from Eritrea in April and May 2008, UNMEE collapsed its previous three operational sectors--Sector West, Sector Central, and Sub-Sector East (each with its own headquarters) into one sector with the headquarters for the entire Ethiopian-Eritrean border based in Adigrat, according to the Indian contingent commander. All UNMEE military observer activities and all UNMO reports concerning military activity are collated at Adigrat and forwarded to the Addis Ababa headquarters mission staff. (Note: Sector East was renamed Sub-Sector East when the Kenyan Battalion was withdrawn in 2004). -------------- UNMEE OBSERVER ACTIVITY SHARPLY CURTAILED -------------- ¶6. (C) After UNMEE withdrew from Eritrea, Acting/Special Representative for the Secretary General Azouz Ennifar restricted all UNMO patrols in Ethiopia from liaising with local ENDF commanders to avoid appearing biased because UNMEE was no longer patrolling in Eritrea, according to the UNMOs. ADDIS ABAB 00001494 002 OF 003 As a result, UNMEE patrols the border area where they are permitted to travel by the Ethiopian military, but does not stop to visit individual units and commanders anywhere along the border to verify unit locations and activities. The UNMOs also said that the UNMEE helicopters based at Adigrat were used for transport and medevac only, and not for observation missions. -------------- -------------- UNMEE CAN PROVIDE ONLY LIMITED WARNING OF CONFLICT -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) As a result of UNMEE's withdrawal from Eritrea, UNMO officers made it clear that UNMEE could only warn of a planned Ethiopian offensive against Eritrea because they would see the movement of the Ethiopian divisions outside of the Adjacent Area--the 15 kilometer wide zone along the TSZ--toward the border. UNMEE has no ability to warn of an Eritrean offensive and little or no ability to warn of any conflict involving Ethiopian units deployed inside the Adjacent Area. ¶8. (C) As UNMEE is currently configured there are UNMOs at only seven remaining team sites inside Ethiopia near the Eritrean border. From west to east the team sites are located at: Humera, Shiraro, Badme, Shire, Adi Abun, Adigrat, and Bure. Humera, Badme, Shire, and Bure are within the Adjacent Area, but Shire, Adi Abun, and Adigrat are well outside the Adjacent Area, putting the UNMOs out of sight or hearing distance of any border skirmishes. -------------- REQUIREMENTS FOR A NEW OBSERVER MISSION? -------------- ¶9. (C) The Indian contingent commander and the UNMOs were keenly interested in any news of UNMEE's future and made several observations about requirements for a follow-on UN observer mission. The officers noted that the Indian Level I hospital at Adigrat is effectively the only operating Level I medical facility in northern Ethiopia, providing a necessary service not only to the UN staff, but also to the local population. The hospital sees between 50-60 Ethiopians a day. ¶10. (C) The officers also noted that as the UNMOs were unarmed, some level of force protection would be required to support a small observer mission. They assessed a full battalion was unnecessary, but that at least a company of infantry with support elements would be needed for a basic level of security. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) UNMEE is a force currently in suspended animation awaiting its fate, with no clear indication of its purpose following its forced withdrawal from Eritrea. Because of UNMEE's decision to stop formal interaction with the ENDF, the military observers have little to do and are now limited to monitoring the ENDF from the side of the road and investigating border incidents when possible. The UNMOs desire for force protection and medical care, although clearly in their self-interest, are valid issues that should be considered if a follow-on observer mission is established, particularly if US military personnel are assigned to the mission. Nevertheless, despite the fact that UNMEE is now more than half-blind to the military situation along the border, Post assesses that one eye is better than none, and that the absence of any UN observers along this volatile border would effectively leave the international community blind and remove and effectively prevent any international investigation and mediation of small border incidents that have the potential to escalate. Post supports a prospective visit to the region by UN Under Secretary General for Political Affairs Lynn Pascoe to discuss with the Ethiopian government their willingness to accept such a mission. END COMMENT. ADDIS ABAB 00001494 003 OF 003 YAMAMOTO