ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF AUTHORITARIAN

S E C R E T ADDIS ABABA 001359 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF AUTHORITARIAN PRACTICES (PART III OF V) REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1111 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 1357 ¶C. ADDIS ABABA 1358 ¶D. ADDIS ABABA 667 Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). PART III OF V. THIS FIVE-PART CABLE DETAILS ETHIOPIAN SCHOLARS' VIEWS ON THE ETHIOPIAN POLITY. Summary -------------- ¶1. (S/NF) Ethiopian scholars interviewed on the Ethiopian polity following the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front's (EPRDF) landslide victory in the April local elections (ref A) cautioned that the EPRDF has employed authoritarian tactics to consolidate and extend its control in civil society, the economy and the society writ large. The scholars divided roughly into two camps: Pluralists, who favored participatory democracy, and Statists, who favored a dominant EPRDF. Parts I and II of this series outlined how, in the scholars' views, the EPRDF is consolidating de facto one-party rule and weakening state institutions (refs B and C). In this Part III, both Pluralists and Statists alleged that the EPRDF has disrupted free association among peoples with thuggery. In closing political space for legitimate opposition, the scholars warned, the EPRDF has emboldened opposition hard-liners who seek regime change by any means and effectively discredited opposition moderates who have argued that political change in Ethiopia can be effectuated through engagement with the ruling party. End Summary. Political Repression -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) The scholars generally lamented what they described as the EPRDF's coercive tactics to expand control, and even the Statists identified an increasing risk of a backlash or other turmoil. The scholars highlighted land grabs and various forms of local thuggery in the rural areas as particularly egregious acts (ref D). "The amount of corruption and the suppression in the Oromiya state is unbelievable," the Statist think tank expert with TPLF ties said. "56 political parties and all leading Oromo intellectuals have complained to me of the abuses. There must be something to it. The Oromiya region ideally should be at the heart of an effective Ethiopian state. How can the EPRDF survive using these tactics? (Even) the Dergue military turned against itself." A Pluralist think tank expert emphasized, "Taking land from Oromo farmers with minimum compensation puts the government in trouble. If this continues, a crisis will come." Eroding Societal Trust -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) A Pluralist AAULAW faculty member observed that "Ethiopia's stability is based on its people not its government. Despite many differences, Ethiopians want to be tolerant and live together. There are many old grass roots organizations (like the Idr burial association) that continue to bring people together in spite of religious and ethnic differences. People want to remain tolerant instead of turning to bitterness and nastiness. However, around Addis Ababa there are increasing comparisons to the Dergue. It is the arbitrary use of power, where nobody can trace you if you are picked up by the police, no charges are ever filed for long detentions and anyone who asks after you is himself at risk." Another Pluralist AAULAW faculty member said that "The EPRDF is very crafty and strong in security. Everyone is well aware that the 'walls have ears and the potatoes have eyes.' You are spied on and you are known in detail: who you are, where you go, with whom you associate. Mistrust among the people is stronger than it was under the Dergue." The Pluralist civil society representative added, "The main difference between now and the Dergue is that small things are tolerated but not allowed to blossom because you are always watched and there is intense self-censorship." The Statist think tank expert with TPLF ties concluded, "Culturally, Addis Ababa is very stable. There is little history of looting. This is based on religion, kinship, Idr and other forces of social protection. But the state is breaking down these mechanisms." Vindicating Opposition Hard-liners -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Pluralists expressed particular concern that EPRDF tactics to consolidate power are vindicating hard-liners in opposition camps who want to effect regime change by other means. A Pluralist AAU faculty member said "The EPRDF humiliates those who try to work with it, so that hard-liners (in the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and elsewhere) feel vindicated. The OLF and others have said they tried to engage but Meles is impervious. The EPRDF is not seriously willing to engage. Ethiopia has experienced numerous violent and turbulent situations internally and externally and we are tired, but people say now there are two options: sit and take it or take the undesired route. The situation is very dangerous and is compounded by threats from Eritrea and Somalia. There is an ever-growing constituency of discontent. Some forces want to put into practice violent agendas." The former TPLF think tank expert said "Minor players have also been pushed out. The political process has stopped becoming a mechanism for conflict management. Many are concluding that there is no option for peaceful democratic change in the country. More and more the Diaspora and the opposition talk of other means of struggle. Such thoughts are a major setback. The (April 2008) local elections helped the OLF and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) by proving that there is no democratic alternative. It isolated the moderates, even humiliated them." An AAULAW faculty member concluded, "The April 2008 local elections undoubtedly strengthened the hand of the OLF members who call for secession." END PART III of V. NEXT: ETHIOPIAN SCHOLARS VOICE CONCERNS OVER ETHIOPIA'S STABILITY YAMAMOTO