ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF AUTHORITARIAN

S E C R E T ADDIS ABABA 001359

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF AUTHORITARIAN
PRACTICES (PART III OF V)

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1111

B. ADDIS ABABA 1357

C. ADDIS ABABA 1358

D. ADDIS ABABA 667

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

PART III OF V. THIS FIVE-PART CABLE DETAILS ETHIOPIAN
SCHOLARS' VIEWS ON THE ETHIOPIAN POLITY.

Summary
--------------


1. (S/NF) Ethiopian scholars interviewed on the Ethiopian
polity following the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary
Democratic Front's (EPRDF) landslide victory in the April
local elections (ref A) cautioned that the EPRDF has employed
authoritarian tactics to consolidate and extend its control
in civil society, the economy and the society writ large. The
scholars divided roughly into two camps: Pluralists, who
favored participatory democracy, and Statists, who favored a
dominant EPRDF. Parts I and II of this series outlined how,
in the scholars' views, the EPRDF is consolidating de facto
one-party rule and weakening state institutions (refs B and
C). In this Part III, both Pluralists and Statists alleged
that the EPRDF has disrupted free association among peoples
with thuggery. In closing political space for legitimate
opposition, the scholars warned, the EPRDF has emboldened
opposition hard-liners who seek regime change by any means
and effectively discredited opposition moderates who have
argued that political change in Ethiopia can be effectuated
through engagement with the ruling party. End Summary.

Political Repression
--------------


2. (S/NF) The scholars generally lamented what they described
as the EPRDF's coercive tactics to expand control, and even
the Statists identified an increasing risk of a backlash or
other turmoil. The scholars highlighted land grabs and
various forms of local thuggery in the rural areas as
particularly egregious acts (ref D). "The amount of
corruption and the suppression in the Oromiya state is
unbelievable," the Statist think tank expert with TPLF ties
said. "56 political parties and all leading Oromo
intellectuals have complained to me of the abuses. There
must be something to it. The Oromiya region ideally should
be at the heart of an effective Ethiopian state. How can the
EPRDF survive using these tactics? (Even) the Dergue military
turned against itself." A Pluralist think tank expert
emphasized, "Taking land from Oromo farmers with minimum
compensation puts the government in trouble. If this
continues, a crisis will come."

Eroding Societal Trust
--------------


3. (S/NF) A Pluralist AAULAW faculty member observed that
"Ethiopia's stability is based on its people not its
government. Despite many differences, Ethiopians want to be
tolerant and live together. There are many old grass roots
organizations (like the Idr burial association) that continue
to bring people together in spite of religious and ethnic
differences. People want to remain tolerant instead of
turning to bitterness and nastiness. However, around Addis
Ababa there are increasing comparisons to the Dergue. It is
the arbitrary use of power, where nobody can trace you if you
are picked up by the police, no charges are ever filed for
long detentions and anyone who asks after you is himself at
risk." Another Pluralist AAULAW faculty member said that "The
EPRDF is very crafty and strong in security. Everyone is
well aware that the 'walls have ears and the potatoes have
eyes.' You are spied on and you are known in detail: who you
are, where you go, with whom you associate. Mistrust among
the people is stronger than it was under the Dergue." The
Pluralist civil society representative added, "The main
difference between now and the Dergue is that small things
are tolerated but not allowed to blossom because you are
always watched and there is intense self-censorship." The
Statist think tank expert with TPLF ties concluded,
"Culturally, Addis Ababa is very stable. There is little
history of looting. This is based on religion, kinship, Idr

and other forces of social protection. But the state is
breaking down these mechanisms."

Vindicating Opposition Hard-liners
--------------


4. (S/NF) Pluralists expressed particular concern that EPRDF
tactics to consolidate power are vindicating hard-liners in
opposition camps who want to effect regime change by other
means. A Pluralist AAU faculty member said "The EPRDF
humiliates those who try to work with it, so that hard-liners
(in the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and elsewhere) feel
vindicated. The OLF and others have said they tried to
engage but Meles is impervious. The EPRDF is not seriously
willing to engage. Ethiopia has experienced numerous violent
and turbulent situations internally and externally and we are
tired, but people say now there are two options: sit and take
it or take the undesired route. The situation is very
dangerous and is compounded by threats from Eritrea and
Somalia. There is an ever-growing constituency of
discontent. Some forces want to put into practice violent
agendas." The former TPLF think tank expert said "Minor
players have also been pushed out. The political process has
stopped becoming a mechanism for conflict management. Many
are concluding that there is no option for peaceful
democratic change in the country. More and more the Diaspora
and the opposition talk of other means of struggle. Such
thoughts are a major setback. The (April 2008) local
elections helped the OLF and the Ogaden National Liberation
Front (ONLF) by proving that there is no democratic
alternative. It isolated the moderates, even humiliated
them." An AAULAW faculty member concluded, "The April 2008
local elections undoubtedly strengthened the hand of the OLF
members who call for secession."

END PART III of V. NEXT: ETHIOPIAN SCHOLARS VOICE CONCERNS
OVER ETHIOPIA'S STABILITY
YAMAMOTO