ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF CONSOLIDATION OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001357

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE EPRDF CONSOLIDATION OF
CONTROL (PART I OF V)

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 1111

B. ADDIS ABABA 1154

C. ADDIS ABABA 1223

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

PART I OF V. THIS FIVE-PART CABLE DETAILS ETHIOPIAN
SCHOLARS' VIEWS ON THE ETHIOPIAN POLITY.

Summary
--------------


1. (S/NF) Following the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front's (EPRDF) landslide victory in
the April local elections (ref A),Deputy Political-Economic
Counselor spoke separately with ten scholars to canvass
elites' opinions on the current Ethiopian polity. The
scholars divided roughly into two camps: Pluralists, who
favored participatory democracy, and Statists, who favored a
dominant EPRDF. The Ethiopian scholars unanimously assessed
that the EPRDF has, for now, ended Ethiopia's experiment in
multiparty democracy and is actively consolidating power and
extending its authority throughout the economy, civil society
and society writ large. For the foreseeable future, the
scholars said, dialogue between the EPRDF and
non-governmental actors or political opposition will diminish
from a low baseline. Although the scholars agreed that the
EPRDF, by virtue of its firm control of the state security
apparatus, is currently the only party that can guarantee
Ethiopia's stability, they collectively cautioned that the
EPRDF's power play is, both by design and collateral effect,
weakening state and societal institutions, eroding trust
among peoples and groups, damaging the economy and,
ultimately, threatening Ethiopia's stability. This Part I of
a five-part cable outlines the scholars' views on the EPRDF's
consolidation of control. End Summary.


2. (S/NF) Following the ruling EPRDF's landslide victory in
the virtually uncontested April 13 and 20, 2008 elections,
which effectively eliminated any political space for
opposition parties at the neighborhood, city, district, and
zonal levels, Deputy Political-Economic Counselor spoke
separately with ten scholars, each in conversations ranging
from one to two hours, to canvass opinion on the current
Ethiopian polity from elites not affiliated with political
parties. The scholars included members of the Addis Ababa
University (AAU) and Addis Ababa University Law School
(AAULAW) faculties, as well as members of several Addis
Ababa-based think tanks and civil society organizations.
While most had spent significant portions of their careers in
Addis Ababa, their provinces of origin reflected Ethiopia's
diversity and included the Amhara, Tigray, Oromiya and
Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's regions.
Several scholars had formerly been senior officials either in
the EPRDF government or in the Dergue regime. Most
identified themselves as secular or mainstream Orthodox
Christians. No Muslims were interviewed. The discussions
were held from April 21 to May 1 at the Embassy and at
various locations in Addis Ababa.

Pluralists and Statists
--------------


3. (S/NF) The scholars roughly divided into two camps. The
Pluralists insisted that participatory democracy is the only
way forward for the country, given its diversity of regions,
languages and ethnicities and its various religious
traditions. The Statists, in contrast, argued that a
dominant EPRDF is necessary to generate economic growth and
guarantee, through firm control of the military and police,
the security and stability necessary for Ethiopia's welfare
and development. The latter position reflects the EPRDF's
"developmental state" rationale for consolidating power under
its banner of "revolutionary democracy" (ref B),which posits
that the ruling party will, sequentially, (i) secure the
country, (ii) centrally direct economic development and (iii)
open political space at some indeterminate time when, in the
ruling party's determination, the relevant national
institutions (including the press and civil society) are
mature enough to handle greater political expression.


ADDIS ABAB 00001357 002 OF 003


"Ethiopia Is A Military Government"
--------------


4. (S/NF) The scholars, Pluralists and Statists alike, were
unanimous in their assessment that the EPRDF has, for now,
ended Ethiopia's experiment in multiparty democracy.
"Ethiopia is, for all intents and purposes, a military
government," remarked a Statist think tank expert with close
ties to the ruling party. He added that "Power alone is the
glue that keeps the EPRDF together. The 1,000 or more EPRDF
cadres control politics at every level." A Pluralist think
tank expert, and former Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
(TPLF) member prior to the 2001 TPLF schism, said "There has
been a reversal of democraticization. Political space is now
closed. Major political players cannot participate in
national reconstruction. Democratic elections are about
processes and institutions. Ethiopia has neither." Another
Pluralist think tank expert observed that "There is no real
opposition left in the country. Democratic rule is not in
place. The (April 2008) local election results were far from
reality. Silence (expressed via low voter turnout) is
opposition in itself. We failed to bring changes (in
national elections) in 2005 and now we are back to
authoritarianism." The former TPLF think tank expert
concluded, "The April 2008 local elections exposed the ruling
party as illegitimate. Legitimacy in Ethiopia demands
nationalism and democracy. The joke on the streets is that
Eritrea is a restaurant with no democracy on the menu, while
Ethiopia is a restaurant with democracy on the menu but no
food."

No Alternatives In Sight
--------------


5. (S/NF) The scholars all agreed that the mainstream
Ethiopian political opposition is in disarray and cannot
contest effectively the EPRDF's supremacy. Predictably, the
Statists attributed this state of affairs largely to the
opposition's own failings, while the Pluralists decried what
they described as the systematic dismantling of the
opposition by the EPRDF after the 2005 elections. An AAU
administrator and marginal Statist observed that "There are
no political organizations with clear philosophies and
agendas that can be alternatives to the EPRDF. The
opposition is weak and disparate, with no clear national
constituencies or agendas. (The banned nationalist
insurgencies) Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden
National Liberation Front (ONLF) are not on the doorstep and
the (EPRDF proxy) Oromo People's Democratic Organization
(OPDO) is very effective for the EPRDF in Oromiya." The think
tank expert with EPRDF ties said "The opposition is too
hopelessly divided to run state security effectively. The
message from the local elections is 'nobody cares if the
EPRDF is in place because it will enforce security.'" A
Pluralist AAULAW faculty member agreed that "The ruling
party's political and economic might overwhelms the
opposition. The public is subdued. There are so many
discontents now, stemming from the (2005) imprisonment (of
opposition, civil society and media figures and supporters)
and its consequences. So many have suffered, or disappeared.
The psychological impact is that people decide to tow the
line, hide their views. No one is enthusiastic about
political expression. It is better to be seen as
non-confrontational." Another Pluralist AAULAW faculty member
concurred, "After the 2005 elections, the hopes of the people
were dashed and many lost interest in the ongoing politics.
People are bitter about this government but they keep to
themselves."

The EPRDF Is Consolidating Control...
--------------


6. (S/NF) Pluralist and Statist scholars alike agreed that,
even though the opposition has been crippled and sidelined,
the EPRDF is aggressively consolidating power and extending
its authority throughout the economy, civil society and
society writ large. Since this trend continues to
accelerate, prospects for reversal are minimal. Rather, the
scholars predicted that, for the foreseeable future, dialogue
between the EPRDF and non-governmental actors or political
opposition will diminish from a low baseline. A Pluralist

ADDIS ABAB 00001357 003 OF 003


think tank expert explained, "The ruling party is
establishing itself as the ruling party for a long time to
come. There is no dialogue in parliament, only majority
rule. Without a strong opposition in Parliament, chances for
opening democratic processes are slim." The marginal Statist
AAU administrator concurred, noting that "Power is now being
consolidated in one party from the grass roots to Parliament.
Parliament is multiparty in name only. Only one party holds
the discussions and passes the laws. The EPRDF is adamant
that this is the best way to run the country." Likewise, the
former TPLF think tank expert said "The trends in the media
and civil society (where the EPRDF has been drafted new laws
to assert control in these areas (ref C)) are not accidental.
The EPRDF oscillates between panic and arrogance, and they
are in arrogant mode now." A Pluralist civil society advocate
added, "The EPRDF will use all its resources to stifle the
opposition. The party is establishing relationships with the
youth and identifying places where power might emerge. It is
authoritarian and there is no way out. Ethiopians want
competitive elections, but the EPRDF wants 98 percent
support. They can never be satisfied. They want to control
everything."

END PART I OF V. NEXT: SCHOLARS DESCRIBE THE WEAKENING OF
THE STATE, ECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT
YAMAMOTO