ETHIOPIAN PRIME MINISTER MELES ON 2010 NATIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001259 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM EAID ET SUBJECT: ETHIOPIAN PRIME MINISTER MELES ON 2010 NATIONAL ELECTIONS, DRAFT NGO LAW, AND OGADEN HUMANITARIAN CRISIS REF: ADDIS 1223 ADDIS ABAB 00001259 001.2 OF 003 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) During a nearly three hour meeting on May 9 held jointly with the Ambassadors of France and the UK, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador Yamamoto that his administration fully supported ethnic diversity and the importance of democratic values and good governance in conjunction with economic development. The Prime Minister said he wanted a vibrant opposition but not one in violation of the constitution or in league with insurgents. Meles committed to working with the international community on making the 2010 national elections transparent and open, but cautioned that no foreign entity could dictate or direct the conduct of the 2010 elections because it would be counter to the sovereign rights of Ethiopia. ¶2. (SBU) On a related subject, the three Ambassadors raised deep concern that the new proposed NGO law (reftel) would so severely restrict NGO operations, especially in support of democratic and good governance programs heading into 2010 elections, that it would severely undermine Ethiopia's relations with its most important donor partners. The Prime Minister agreed to delay submission of the proposed law to the council of ministers until the ambassadors could submit in writing specific concerns and questions on the NGO law and follow-up discussion with the Prime Minister. ¶3. (SBU) The Ambassadors raised continued problems in the Ogaden with distribution of food and medical services, especially for inoculations against measles and other diseases. The Prime Minister said he would look into this problem, but added that the Ethiopian Government (GoE) lacked confidence in some NGOs operating in the Somali region of Ethiopia because of their suspected ties to insurgents. The Prime Minister agreed that those NGOs under suspicion of illegal activities should work with the embassy from their respective country to work out modalities for operations in the Ogaden region with the GOE. End Summary. AMBASSADORS DRAW LINE ON 2010 NATIONAL ELECTIONS -------------- --- ¶4. (SBU) UK Ambassador Norman Ling, French Ambassador Stephane Gompertz and the U.S. Ambassador met jointly with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his chief of staff, Gebretensai on May 9. Ambassador Ling noted that democracy will flourish if the GoE ensures that the 2010 national elections are transparent and the opposition is given political space to operate. The three ambassadors stressed the deep frustration of the opposition during the 2008 local election in which the major opposition parties boycotted as a result of alleged harassment and restrictions by the ruling party. If public frustration could not be relieved through a safety valve of open political participation, then the 2010 elections could pose a serious problem for the government, the U.S. Ambassador stated. ¶5. (SBU) The Prime Minister asserted that Ethiopia's ethnic diversity demands a vibrant democratic process to met the aspirations of the people. Democratic values and good governance must develop in conjunction with economic development. Some leaders from developing countries assert that economic prosperity must come first before there can be development of democratic values. Meles said that for Ethiopia's own political stability and future survival, there must be simultaneously a transparent democratic process and economic progress. ¶6. (SBU) Meles reviewed the democratic experience in France, UK and the U.S. and said Ethiopia must learn from other countries, but must also develop its democratic process at its own pace based on its unique cultural and social situation. Meles emphasized that foreign governments and organizations can play an important role helping to build capacity and democratic institutions but cautioned that donor countries cannot dictate, direct, or more specifically, "micro-manage" Ethiopia's political development like a colonial power. Democratic development must be uniquely ADDIS ABAB 00001259 002.2 OF 003 Ethiopian and in accordance with its sovereign rights. More important, complete foreign domination or influence may not be in Ethiopia's interest, detracting Ethiopia from developing democratic institutions and values which will be sustainable for the people of Ethiopia in the context of Ethiopia's history and culture. OPPOSITION PARTIES FACE A ROUGH ROAD -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Meles expressed concern over opposition development. The opposition must abide by and support the constitution and act within the parameters of the constitution. Opposition parties cannot be a front for insurgent groups or oppose the interests of the country by advocating for extremists who seek to undercut the national unity. Referring to the genocide in Rwanda, Meles said opposition groups must not tamper with or undercut Ethiopia's delicate ethnic balance. Another "mille colline" (a reference to the hotel in Kigali, Rwanda which was in the center of the genocide) could destroy the country. Ambassador Ling argued that a weak opposition would lead to a weak democratic state. Meles countered that a functioning opposition as well as the development the country will take time. Outside help with capacity development and institution building will help the democratic process. NGO LAW IS CONFUSING AND POTENTIALLY ANTI-DEMOCRATIC -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) French Ambassador Gompertz led discussions on the importance to allow NGOs to operate freely and unrestricted in Ethiopia because of the work they provide for the development of Ethiopia. The U.S. Ambassador noted that the May 6 briefing to NGOs by the Justice Minister (reftel) was confusing, raising fears that the GoE was trying to micro-manage foreign NGOs. For instance, any NGO that receives more than 10 percent of its funding from foreign sources would be considered a foreign NGO and subject to severe restrictions and oversight -- even those NGOs which are distinctly Ethiopian and critical to Ethiopia's political development (such as the "Ethiopian Elders" or Ethiopian Human Rights Council). The Justice Minister reportedly told NGOs that NGOs determined to be "foreign NGOs" based on their funding levels would be restricted from working on democratic institution building. This could lead to many U.S. and foreign NGOs (as well as Ethiopian NGOs which receive foreign assistance) being marginalized and eliminated from Ethiopia, and potentially impact on all NGO activities in other areas such as development, the Ambassadors noted. ¶9. (SBU) The Prime Minister replied that the purpose of the new proposed law was to streamline NGO registration, oversee financial transactions to eliminate fraud and ensure NGOs were operating within the scope of their mandates. Meles said if the law is confusing and the international community has doubts about the draft, then he would delay introduction of the proposed legislation to the cabinet by two-to-three weeks to give the Ambassadors an opportunity to read the proposed draft law and to raise questions in writing with the Prime Minister within the next week or so. The Ambassadors noted to the Prime Minister that NGOs would meet to discuss the new legislation and their assessment will be used by the Ambassadors for the next meeting on this issue with the Prime Minister. OGADEN STILL A HUMANITARIAN CHALLENGE -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The U.S. Ambassador highlighted for the Prime Minister that while food deliveries were good, food distribution continued to be severely restricted, caught up in bureaucratic red tape. Further, some NGOs were severely limited from operating in the region making implementation of their projects, particularly measles inoculations, difficult to manage. The Prime Minister said he would discuss the problems with his staff. He underscored that food distribution has become more open with military convoys eliminated in most of the Ogaden. The Prime Minister said the GoE has lost confidence in some NGOs operating in the Ogaden because they are exceeding their mandates by operating ADDIS ABAB 00001259 003.2 OF 003 in areas they had not filed itineraries or not coordinating with the GoE, and were suspected of coordinating with insurgents. ¶11. (SBU) The U.S. Ambassador asked whether the GoE would ease up on restrictions of these NGOs if they worked with their respective embassies and complied with the letter of the law on where to operate and under conditions established by the government. The Prime Minister responded that this would be useful. The Ambassadors noted that Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF)-Holland and Greece faced the most severe restrictions, while U.S. NGOs, WFP and the UN faced fewer problems. But Meles cautioned that some NGOs would never overcome doubts about their operations because of deep suspicions of their alleged cooperation with insurgent groups. COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (SBU) The U.S. Ambassador hosted a meeting of key donors and NGOs on the continued Ogaden food distribution and inoculation restrictions on May 9. The U.S. has pressed with Ethiopia's leadership the easing of restrictions on all NGOs. The worry is that such restrictions, which vary in intensity across NGOs, could expand to other NGOs and potentially affect U.S. NGOs. The arrival of a new humanitarian assistance team will help bring clarity on the extent of restrictions on NGOs as well as a clearer picture of the extent of the drought and humanitarian problems in the Ogaden and other areas of Ethiopia. The U.S. Ambassador will meet with a cross-section of NGOs on May 16 to review the draft NGO law and follow-up our concerns directly with the Prime Minister. ¶13. (SBU) Moving toward national elections in 2010, the main focus of the meeting, will be difficult to manage. If the new NGO law does in fact restrict NGOs from working on democratic institution building, good governance, judicial capacity, and conflict resolution, then all foreign activities would be severely limited to only a few sectors. The fear would be that the opposition would be marginalized and restricted so completely that there would be little political space to operate. The deep frustration we witnessed during the 2008 local elections could expand and potentially lead to violence more severe than the aftermath of the 2005 elections or more recently in Kenya. The Embassy will actively seek clarification of the new NGO law, urge changes, and seek closer involvement in supporting democratic institution building, political space for the opposition, and greater political expression to ease the growing frustration and animosities towards the ruling party. End comment. YAMAMOTO