ELECTION HERALD 9: ELECTIONS FULFILL EPRDF PROPHECY

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 001111 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, DRL FOR SJOSEPH LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND CENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET SUBJECT: ELECTION HERALD 9: ELECTIONS FULFILL EPRDF PROPHECY REF: ADDIS 1065 (AND PREVIOUS) ¶1. (SBU) April 20 marked the second round of polling in Ethiopia's local elections and will decide the make-up of the thousands of kebele (district) administrations, as well as the few remaining federal parliamentary by-elections seats not chosen in the first round. As was the case on the April 13 polling date (reftel),an informal windshield tour of roughly 30 polling stations revealed few voters. Despite National Electoral Board (NEB) claims of 70 percent turnout on April 20, the only notable crowds on the streets of Addis Ababa were the many churchgoers celebrating Orthodox Palm Sunday where the number of palm crowns far overshadowed the prevalence of indelible ink by a wide margin. ¶2. (SBU) As expected, the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF),as well as the Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM) and the Afari Liberation Front (ALF) parties - both of which participated in the first round, but later withdrew due to reported harassment of observers and candidates - sat out the second round. In the last week, the NEB has repeatedly stated that it was illegal for the OFDM and ALF to withdraw from the elections after taking part in the initial round, saying that it would "take note and declare its decision (on how to respond) to the country." OFDM leader Bulcha Demeksa told Poloff on April 18 that he has information that the EPRDF is planning on taking punitive action against the OFDM for the pull-out, speculating that he will soon lose his Addis Ababa offices as well as recognition as a party block in Parliament and thus, the right to address Parliament. (NOTE: 10 seats are need to be recognized as a party block in Parliament. Though the OFDM had won 12 seats in 2005, they have since lost three people due to defection and one due to death. Nevertheless, to-date they have retained their status in Parliament. END NOTE.) ¶3. (SBU) The NEB has indicated that all official results will be declared by May 18. However, media reports over the weekend stated that, following the April 13 voting, the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) had won 137 of the 138 Addis Ababa city administration seats (the Coalition for Unity and Democracy Party (CUDP) won the other due to the absence of an EPRDF candidate),as well as all 14 of the federal Parliamentary bi-election seats. This is a complete reversal from the 2005 election in which the CUD won 137 seats in the Addis Ababa City Council (the EPRDF one) and all of the 14 federal MP seats now up for election. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Though the election results published over the weekend are unofficial, they are probably accurate and will likely reflect the EPRDF's success in the elections throughout the country, with even the quasi-opposition parties fairing poorly. As the opposition parties had chosen to refrain from fielding candidates for the April 20 kebele council elections, the OFDM and ALF boycott was purely symbolic rather than an actual withdrawal of candidates. Nevertheless, Post believes that the NEB may take advantage of their decision to strip administratively the parties of their legal party registration as the NEB has previously done to the Oromo National Congress in December 2005 and the CUDP in January 2007. There have been no public protests thus far and limited criticism of the elections in the media. Post still believes that public demonstrations or violence upon publishing official results is very unlikely. YAMAMOTO