CCP AND PNC MOVE TOWARD ELECTORAL ALLIANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ACCRA 000662

SIPDIS

PGOV, ECON, SNAR, PREL, PINR, GH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2028
TAGS: PGOV ECON GH
SUBJECT: CCP AND PNC MOVE TOWARD ELECTORAL ALLIANCE

REF: A. A. ACCRA 00627

B. B. ACCRA 00623

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Pamela E. Bridgewater for reaso
ns 1.5 (B) and (D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ghana's two minor political parties with
seats in Parliament, the Convention People's Party (CPP) and
the People's National Convention (PNC),continue to move
toward an "electoral alliance" ahead of this December's
election. The two parties share similar ideologies; the
unresolved issue concerns selection of a joint slate for
Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. Media
speculation has CPP leader, Dr. Paa Kwesi Ndoum, heading the
ticket with Dr. Edward Mahama of the PNC serving as running
mate. However, a senior PNC official said the issue has not
yet been settled, and that hardliners in the party may oppose
the deal. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Speculation has been building in recent days that the
CPP and PNC would form an alliance ahead of the December
election. In separate meetings with Ambassador Pamela E.
Bridgewater, both candidates, Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom of the CPP
and Dr. Edward Mahama of the PNC, said that cooperation was
likely. (Reftels). At a May 14 meet the candidate event, Dr.
Nduom carefully responded to a reporter's question about a
merger, saying that "it had come to the point where the CPP
and the PNC will work together." News reports quote Dr. Nduom
as saying he would lead the alliance into the election, with
Dr. Mahama as his running mate.


3. (C) POLOFF and POLFSN met May 15 with Alhaj Ahmed Ramadan,
National Chairman of the People's National Convention.
Ramadan said that a final decision by the PNC to conclude an
electoral alliance had not been made, pending a meeting next
week of the party's National Executive Committee. Media
speculation on Nduom leading a joint ticket came about after
a weekend meeting between officials from the two parties.
During a vote at that meeting, a PNC committee member
switched positions and voted with the CPP to select Nduom,
allowing some to draw the conclusion that he had been
selected. Ramadan said that the matter of leadership was not
yet settled, and noted that some party loyalists,
particularly in the party's base region of Northern Ghana,
would likely oppose a joint effort with the CPP. Rather than
a full merger, Ramadan thought that an electoral alliance
would result. Under an alliance, the parties would run common
candidates for President and Vice President and not run
competing parliamentary candidates in the same
constituencies. Ramadan further explained that an electoral
college had been proposed to bring together representatives
from both parties to select a common flag-bearer and vice
presidential candidate, and to name candidates for
parliamentary seats. Asked what would happen if the process
stalled, Ramadan said that in a worse case, "the party would
go into the election as the PNC." Media reports on May 16
describe dissension within the PNC over the proposed alliance
and anger that the National Executive Committee was not more
involved.


4. (SBU). Both the CPP and the PNC share similar both
ideological positions and Nkrumahist roots. Both embrace a
social democratic agenda, with populist electoral messages.
The PNC's strength is in the far north of Ghana, where it
holds four parliamentary seats, while the CPP's strength is
in the Central and Western Regions, where it won three seats
in 2004. Ramadan admitted that in most constituencies the
combined support of the two parties would not be sufficient
to win many additional seats, and that it was necessary to
draw voters from other parties, particularly the opposition
National Democratic Congress. He said this would be
difficult, and the party risked losing its support through an
alliance. He noted that in 2004 the CPP won its three seats
in constituencies where the ruling National Patriotic Party
(NPP) chose not to run candidates, giving the CPP a large
advantage. It appears this will not happen again in 2008, as
the NPP has put forth candidates in the constituencies held
by the CPP.


5. (C) COMMENT: The CCP and PNC have similar ideologies, but
different regional bases-- conditions that make an alliance a
natural fit. Mahama may be willing to forego his own
presidential candidacy, a major hurdle to an electoral
alliance, although party loyalists may balk at the loss of
party identity. While early indicators suggest an increase in
support for the CPP, it remains unclear how this will impact
the 2008 elections. END COMMENT.
BRIDGEWATER