GHANA: CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARES TO MEDIATE ELECTION CONFLICT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000338

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SNAR GH
SUBJECT: GHANA: CIVIL SOCIETY PREPARES TO MEDIATE ELECTION CONFLICT

REF: Accra 187


1. (U) Summary: In a series of meetings between Poloff and
representatives of Ghanaian media, think tanks, and religious
coalitions, civil society leaders predicted a contentious December
presidential election but believed violence could be averted. The
leaders conveyed a generally positive view of Electoral Commission
(EC) preparations to-date, but said that the EC is not an effective
dispute resolution body, and called for civil society to play a
stronger role in mediating potential conflict. End Summary.

Civil Society's Role in Assuring a Peaceful Election
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Between February 26 and March 3, Poloff met with a number of
leading civil society activists to solicit their views of the
upcoming elections, including potential problems that Ghana faces.
Among the leaders we met were:

-- Ben Ephson, editor of the independent newspaper The Daily
Dispatch. Ephson also conducts extensive political polling,
overseeing a nationwide team of assistants to measure public opinion
on candidates and issues. Post is providing Ephson with a DHRF
grant for monitoring work during the upcoming presidential and
parliamentary elections.

-- Reverend Fred Deegbe, General Secretary of the Christian Council
of Ghana, a grouping of Methodist, Presbyterian, and Baptist
leaders. The Christian Council conducts research-based advocacy on
issues relating to governance and peace building, socio-economic
justice, and gender and human rights. The organization has prior
experience with election monitoring and has served as a mediator of
conflicts between Christian and traditional authorities. Rev.
Deegbe also chairs the Ghana Anti-Corruption Council.

-- Peter Fiamor, research officer with the Institute for Democratic
Government (IDEG),a research and advocacy group promoting civic
engagement. IDEG works to improve Parliament's capacity to engage
the executive branch and to help citizens present local issues to
their elected representatives. IDEG is planning district-level
debates among parliamentary aspirants before the December elections.


-- Dr. Emmanuel Gyimah Boadi, Executive Director of the Ghana Center
for Democratic Development (CDD),a policy think-tank supporting
good governance, rule-of-law, and institutional capacity-building.
Gyimah-Boadi said his organization's key challenge is to strengthen
parliament in order to "contain the excessive power of the executive
branch" and to develop a robust system of checks and balances. CDD
plans to participate in election monitoring in December. [NOTE: See
reftel for Dr. Boadi's comments on what Kenya's post-election crisis
means to Ghana. END NOTE]

Observers Predict a Contentious Race
--------------


3. (SBU) Meeting with Poloff on February 27, Ben Ephson predicted a
"contentious but not violent" presidential election in December. He
said that the growing population of 'floating voters' not aligned to
a specific party (estimated by Ephson to represent 25-30% of the
electorate) will strongly influence the election results. Ephson
stated that the floating voters see corruption as a significant
problem and hold President Kufour's administration responsible for
the rising level of corruption. Although Ephson predicts a second
round runoff will occur (with the NDC prevailing),he said
post-election violence is unlikely. Ephson believes voting
irregularities will decrease in this election, due to improved voter
identification cards and oversight, vigilant polling agents, and a
more sophisticated electorate unlikely to be influenced by vote
buying schemes. He said that citizens would take campaign money but
not feel bound to vote for the bribe-giving candidate.


4. (U) Dr. Boadi predicted an intensely-contested election between
two parties relatively equal in strength. Boadi noted that Ghana's
excessive concentration of power in the executive branch makes the
presidency the "main political prize" and that Ghana's anticipated
oil revenue raises the stakes in the upcoming election. Although he
predicts a contentious election, Boadi believes election-related
conflict can be contained, provided the Electoral Commission
maintains its level of transparency and revives the Inter-Party
Advisory Committee (IPAC),and that media and civil society groups
play an active role as observers.

Civil Society's Role in Dispute Resolution
--------------


5. (U) Rev. Deegbe told Poloff that civil society groups must
actively promote moderation and tolerance if election conflict
arises. Deegbe opined that it is unlikely there will be significant
violence following a disputed election, because Ghana has credible

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"referees", including civil and religious leaders, to prevent it. He
said the EC must declare the election results before the government
or political parties to promote confidence in the process. Deegbe
added that the Christian Council will urge member churches to
participate in voter education and election monitoring, and to seek
practical solutions to accommodate a Sunday election. (NOTE: The
December 7 election day falls on a Sunday this year, which has
prompted calls from Christian leaders to change the election date so
as not to interfere with churchgoers, or cause logistical
difficulties since many churches serve as polling stations. Deegbe
said the Christian Council is in discussions with the EC to identify
a solution. The EC has publicly stated that election day will
remain December 7. END NOTE)


6. (U) Commenting further on the role of the Electoral Commission,
Peter Fiamor, Research Officer with the Institute for Democratic
Governance (IDEG),told Poloff that the EC's dispute resolution
capacity remains untested, and that the judiciary and political
parties must also play a strong role in mediating conflict. Fiamor
noted that the media's role in civil society is advancing, pointing
to an increase in serious investigative reporting and a focus on
substantive issues.


7. (U) Dr. Boadi also said that civil society must collaborate to
mediate election conflict. CDD plans to join forces with other
domestic election observers and establish a coalition as a
counterforce to political parties. CDD Research Officer Kojo
Pumpuni Asante said such a coalition will be essential for publicly
certifying election results as free and fair and muting political
party protests. However, he does not view the recently established
National Peace Council as an effective convener of civil society,
stating it lacks sufficient capacity and credibility. Asante also
said that promoting adequate media access to all parties is
essential to leveling the playing field and reducing perceptions
that the ruling party is abusing its power.


8. (SBU) Comment: The concerns raised over the EC's limited ability
to resolve election-related disputes, and the need for the EC to act
transparently (such as through the regular convening of IPAC
meetings, something that has not taken place during the past year),
are serious and could have an impact on the perceived credibility of
the 2008 elections. With the election likely to be close amidst a
highly polarized political environment, these civil society groups
can play a critical role in ensuring that the campaign and election
plays out peacefully and that potential conflicts are identified and
defused early. End Comment.

BRIDGEWATER