WHAT KENYA MEANS TO GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 000187 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON GH SUBJECT: WHAT KENYA MEANS TO GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION REF: A) 2007 ACCRA 1440 B) 2007 ACCRA 1889 B) ACCRA 78 Classified By: AMBASSADOR PAMELA E. BRIDGEWATER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 22 Professor Emmanuel Gyimah Boadi of the Center for Democratic Development (CDD),a leading Ghanaian think tank, said he does not expect a political crisis similar to Kenya's after Ghana's 2008 election. He said Ghana's democracy is more "mature" than Kenya's, and Ghana has already addressed some of the underlying issues that are causing Kenya's crisis. Regarding the 2008 election, Boadi feels the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) has an edge over the National Democratic Congress (NDC),and predicted a slim win for the NPP in December. If the NDC loses, the party could dissolve and open the way for a resurgent Convention People's Party (CPP). Boadi also predicted that the small Democratic Freedom Party (DFP) will "make some noise," and said that the NDC sees the DFP as a "wedge" created by the NPP to siphon oway NDC votes. Finally, he inquired about U.S. plans to support the election and expressed concern about GOG management of the future oil revenues following discovery of oil off Ghana's West coast (ref A). END SUMMARY. WHAT KENYA MEANS TO GHANA -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 22, long-time Embassy contact Professor Emmanuel Gyimah Boadi of the Center for Democratic Development discussed what Kenya's current crisis means to Ghana, Ghana,s 2008 election, and the recent oil find off Ghana,s coast (ref A). Boadi said Kenya has "created a challenge8 as Ghana faces its 2008 election, but that Ghana does not have the same underlying tensions. He noted that Ghana has already dealt with two main problems that affected Kenya,s electoral process. The first problem for Kenya, he said, was that this election would have been the first peaceful transfer of power between different parties. This step, he said, is the toughest for an emerging democracy, and Ghana crossed this threshold in 2001 when the NDC handed power to the NPP. Second, said Boadi, Kenya is still struggling with ethnic disputes such as one ethnic group dominating the others. Ghana, in contrast, has had leaders from the Ewe and Ashanti groups, as well as powerful individuals in the GOG from the Northern Regions. He said these distinctions significantly decrease the likelihood that �A;Ghana will experience a crisis similar to Kenya. ¶3. (C) Boadi added that Ghana,s democratic institutions are more advanced than Kenya,s. For an election to work, he said, a country needs observers, both local and international, free media, and a strongly rooted civil society to keep opposing sides in check. Ghana, he noted, has all of these institutions, including a strong Electoral Commission (EC) that is respected by politicians and the population. Furthermore, the EC,s cooperation with civil society is &great,8 and Boadi commended the role of Ghana,s Inter Party Advisory Committee (IPAC) as working hard to smooth differences over among the political parties. Boadi also stressed the importance of observers, and inquired about U.S. assistance plans for Ghana,s 2008 election. A PREVIEW OF THE 2008 ELECTION: IT WILL BE CLOSE -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Looking at Ghana,s 2008 election, Boadi predicted that ROPAA, or the Representation of the Peoples, Amendment Act (ROPAA),could be a flashpoint. (NOTE: ROPAA extends the vote to Ghanaians living abroad and was passed by Parliament in 2006 despite strong objections by minority parties (ref B). However, the EC indicated to us January 16 that overseas voting will not be implemented in time for the 2008 election. See septel. END NOTE.) Boadi also said that the small Democratic Freedom Party (DFP),which will select its candidate in March or April, could cause a controversy in the election because the NDC feels it is a &wedge8 party created by the NPP to siphon off votes from the NDC. The party is quiet now, he said, but will &make some noise8 as the election draws closer. ¶5. (C) Boadi said the NPP selected the best candidate in December, former FM Nana Akuffo Addo, and added that the selection of running mates would be a major issue for each party. He commented that the NPP, despite its tendency for scandals, has a slight edge at this point, and predicted corruption and economics would be major issues. Boadi said both sides would fight hard, and the NDC in particular will be &going for broke.8 If the NDC loses this election, however, it could cease to exist as a viable party. ¶6. (C) This possibility, Boadi elaborated, explains the limited resurgence of the Convention People,s Party (CPP). ACCRA 00000187 002 OF 002 He said the CPP is positioning itself for future elections and does not expect to win in 2008, although it should carry 2-3 per cent of the vote. Boadi predicted that the NPP would win a plurality in the first round and would win a second round runoff as CPP voters join the NPP. He dismissed the chances of the People,s National Congress (PNC),saying it has a small reach limited to the Upper East and Upper West regions. CONCERN OVER OIL REVENUES -------------- ¶7. (C) Concerning Ghana,s recent oil find (ref A),Boadi is troubled that there has been so little public discussion, including among presidential candidates, about the quantity of oil and about how the revenues will be monitored and spent. (NOTE: Drilling is currently ongoing to determine the quantity. END NOTE.) He said official information is hard to find and he worries that Ghana could fall into the traps that ensnared Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. He is equally concerned about Ghana,s ability to manage large funds, citing problems with the GOG,s management of proceeds from cocoa farming, its social security fund, and the Ghana Education Trust fund. He is looking forward to the February conference in which UK and Norwegian officials will discuss managing resource funds. (NOTE: The U.S. is also working closely with the GOG to organize the February conference, which will include participants from a number of countries around the world with experience - good and bad - managing oil revenue, as well as the IMF and World Bank. END NOTE.) However, Boadi stressed that the UK and Norwegian models will not work in Ghana unless the fund is separated from politics, and suggested that the U.S. send experts in Africa and resource management funds to Ghana to discuss these matters in depth and encourage a national discussion. POKU AN &OLD SCHOOL CAPO FROM THE BANANA REPUBLIC DAYS8 -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Concerning the recent dismissal of former Minister of National Security Francis Poku (ref C),Boadi indicated he would not miss Poku, saying that he was &an old school capo from the Banana Republic days.8 He supports new director of National Security Dr. Ghartey because of his international background, adding that Ghartey is someone he &could have tea with.8 COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Boadi,s comments suggest that the Kenya crisis will raise the stakes for Ghana's 2008 election. While Ghana has made significant strides politically, and its ethnic groups generally get along well, the potential for lower level strife after the December elections is real as small chieftaincy disputes could become politicized and create problems. Despite Boadi's concern over ROPAA, at this stage it appears highly unlikely that overseas voting will be implemented in 2008, eliminating a potential flashpoint. Concerning oil revenue, Boadi,s worries are also valid, and the February conference should be a good indicator of whether the proces is moving forward transparently. President Kufuor has pledged to have the oil fund designed and implemented before he leaves office. END COMMENT. BRIDGEWATER