GHANA ELECTION: ATTA-MILLS VICTORIOUS (ALMOST)

UNCLAS ACCRA 001617 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: GH KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS PREL SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTION: ATTA-MILLS VICTORIOUS (ALMOST) ¶1. (U) The Director of Ghana's Electoral Commission (EC), Dr. Kwadwo Afari-Gyan, announced the results of the December 28 presidential runoff election at 4:55 pm on December 30. National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate John Atta-Mills polled 4,501,466 votes (50.13%),and New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate Nana Akufo-Addo received 4,478,411 votes (49.87%). Technically, Atta-Mills received the required number of votes (50% plus one) to be declared president, but Afari-Gyan declined to do so because the entire Tain constituency in the Brong-Ahafo Region did not vote on Sunday because of a ballot paper problem. The number of votes separating the two candidates is 23,055, and the number of registered voters in Tain is around 40,000, so potentially voting in Tain could affect the outcome of the election. Afari-Gyan therefore declared that voting would take place Friday, January 2 in Tain, and no winner would be declared until that vote is tallied. ¶2. (U) Despite Afari-Gyan delaying the declaration of the winner, the results announced today clearly indicate an NDC win, and the party's supporters, who had done the math, were on the streets of Accra jubilating (that's the Ghanaian term) immediately after the announcement of the results. For the NPP to close the gap, they would have to win overwhelmingly in Tain, and that is extremely unlikely to happen. In the December 7 election, the NDC got 16,211 votes (50.7%),while NPP received 14,935 (46.8%),with the remaining votes going to minor party candidates. ¶3. (SBU) Afari-Gyan also noted concerns expressed by the NDC over results in the NPP stronghold Ashanti Region, and by the NPP in the NDC stronghold Volta Region. He added that "the name of the game is evidence." He said that the NDC has shown some evidence to indicate a need to further investigate Ashanti voting, and that the NPP had promised to provide similar information for Volta. (NOTE: Embassy observers in Ashanti found irregularities at one polling station there, where more votes were cast than were on the voter register. END NOTE) Poloffs also learned that results faxed in from at least four constituencies in Ashanti region appeared to have been inflated, and that was the reason the announcement of the results were delayed alost five hours. It appears likely that the final results will show an even stronger win by the NDC. ¶4. (U) The five-hour delay in announcing election results (from noon to 5 pm) created a good deal of tension throughout the country. Many shops, banks, and other commercial establishments began closing at 3:00, and crowds outside the EC began swelling. At 2:00, an EC spokesman told the media teams that results would be announced at 2:45, and several radio and television stations began a live feed at 2:30, eventually abandoning those an hour later. When hours passed with no further announcements, NDC party agents at the EC began to become agitated, finally barging into the press center and shouting in front of the television cameras shortly before Afari-Gyan finally appeared. As usual, his comments were well received and appeared to have a calming effect on the room. The moment that he announced the tally for Atta-Mills, everyone in the press center could hear a roar go up from the crowd of NDC supporters that had been camped just a block away since the night before. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT. In the end, the EC's announcement, although somewhat equivocal, was probably as good a result as anyone could have hoped for. It adds to the EC's credibility and reputation for caution and fairness, while at the same time defusing what might have been a tense situation if it had announced a clear-cut winner despite partisan accusations and the lack of any voting in Tain. (NOTE: Embassy has also learned that CODEO's Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT),which will be announced tomorrow at 10 am, gave Atta-Mills 50.2%, and Akufo-Addo 49.8%, almost an exact match of EC results. END NOTE) NPP supporters now can stay off the streets while they nurse a vague, if unrealistic, hope that a miracle may happen, while NDC supporters can rest easy tonight, confident that their candidate will win. It gives the NPP some breathing room to decide how to react to their defeat, and the NDC some time to blow off steam and perhaps appear more magnanimous in victory when the winner is finally announced. If the NPP concedes defeat willingly and all goes as planned, it will have been a great day for Ghanaian democracy. TEITELBAUM