SCENE SETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S VISIT TO GHANA,

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SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W AND AKUNNA COOK, AF/FO FOR DANA BANKS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OTRA OVIP PREL PGOV ECON AMGT GH
SUBJECT: SCENE SETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S VISIT TO GHANA,
DECEMBER 26-28, 2008


1. U.S. Mission Accra warmly welcomes the visit of Assistant
Secretary Frazer and Staff Assistant Dana Banks to Ghana,
with a scheduled arrival on a UN flight on December 26 at
approximately 11:00, and departure on December 28 at 21:55 on
a KLM/NWA flight 8590 to Amsterdam. Control officer for this
visit will be Ms. Janelle Guest, who can be reached at (233)
21 741-178 and mobile phone number (233) (0)244 330-373. A/S
Fraser and Ms. Banks will be staying at the Ambassador's
residence.



2. (U) Ghana's presidential run-off is scheduled for Sunday,
December 28. The Electoral Commission is expected to release
the results within seventy-two hours, or by Wednesday,
December 31. Under Ghanaian law, campaigning must end 24
hours prior to the opening of the polls. With the Christmas
and Boxing Day Holidays close to election day, post
anticipates that most campaigning will be over by December

24. There will be just over one week between the announcement
of the result of the presidential runoff and the
inauguration, scheduled for January 7. Should one of the
parties wish to dispute the election, Ghana's constitution
allows for a petition challenging the result, which must be
filed with the Supreme Court within 21 days.


3. (U) Post anticipates that the campaign will be hard
fought, as both candidates-- and their supporters--
understand that they have a good chance to win this election.
Fewer than 105,000 votes separated the NPP's Nana Akufo-Addo
and the NDC's John Atta Mills ater the first round, and
control of parliament hinges on two yet to be determined
seats. The campaigns will focus on getting out the vote, as
many voters (and more NPP supporters) apparently decided to
sit out the election. Nationwide, led by the Greater Accra,
Central and Western Regions, fewer people, in absolute
numbers, voted in 2008 than in 2004, Motivating those members
of the public who are not their committed supporters will be
key for either party to win. (Note: There was also a decline
in voters in the Volta Region, although an early closing of
the border with Togo by the GOG may have been a factor. Post
anticipates that the border will again be closed for the
run-off, limiting the ability of Ghanaians-- mostly NDC
supporters-- who work in Togo to return to Ghanaian homes to
vote. End Note.)

4 (SBU). Your visit will be an opportunity to re-enforce the
USG's neutrality in the election, and our support for free,
fair and transparent elections, conditions Post believes were
met in the first round of voting. Post is working to arrange
meetings between you and the two presidential candidates. If
meetings are not possible, or are only possible with one
candidate, we will work to arrange telephone conversations.


5. (SBU) For the December 28 election the US Mission will
field approximately 20 observation teams outside of Accra,
and another four in the Greater Accra Region. The two person
teams will be deployed to constituencies whose results were
in some manner "interesting" from the first round, such as a
reversal of historic voting patterns. The Mission plans to
have five teams in Ashanti and four in Volta, the heartland
areas of the two parties and regions where intimidation of
opposition voters, or other questionable practices, are most
likely to be attempted. The teams will phone in results the
evening of the 28th, giving the Mission a snapshot of voting
conditions and turnout from across the country. The Mission
fielded fifty two-person teams for the December 7 polling.
There were fewer volunteers for the runoff, due primarily to
holiday leave schedules. Post is in process of obtaining
Electoral Commission Certification to allow you and Dana
Banks to observe at polling stations. We propose that you
observe voting in the Greater Accra Region.


6. (U) Other diplomatic missions and non-governmental
organizations will also field observer teams for the runoff
election. The UK, Canada and European Union will field teams,
although also at a reduced level compared to December 7. The
EU continues to have long term observers posted across Ghana,
where they have been engaged since prior to the December 7
voting. The Carter Center will support a reduced team of
observers for the runoff. The Carter Center received funding
support from DFID for their observer program, including a
second installment of $311,000 for the run-off.


7. (U) The Coalition of Domestic Election Observers (CODEO),
a group of Ghanaian NGOs, will again field the largest
contingent of election observers across the nation, with
4,000 observers. CODEO worked with the National Democratic
Institute (NDI) in the first round to implement a parallel
vote tabulation (PVT) exercise. CODEO observers submitted

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reports from 1,070 polling stations during the first
election, providing the actual vote tallies which allowed
CODEO, using statistical techniques, to model the election
process. Two hours after the EC announced its results, CODEO
released the results of its PVT, which was uncannily close to
the final result announced by the EC. CODEO's PVT had
forecast 49.8 percent for Akufo-Addo (actual 49.1),47.4
percent for Atta-Mills (actual 47.9),and 1.3 percent for the
Convention Peoples Party candidate Papa Kwesi Nduom (his
exact count). Their results add a welcome shot of
credibility to the EC's announcement. The PVT was assisted
with financial support from USAID, and will be conducted
again on December 28.


8. (U) The media played a generally supportive and
responsible role in reporting on the election. FM stations
with national reach provided regular updates on the vote
tallies for both parliamentary and presidential races, but
were careful to caution listeners that only the EC could
declare a winner. One station also provided running updates
on its website, and became the defacto source of vote
tabulations for the election. The media repeated the many
calls made by civil society and religious leaders for
peaceful elections.


9. (U). Election security was provided by the police and
other agencies, with support from the military. Each polling
station was staffed by at least one civilian security
officer, including officers from the prison and fire services
and border guards. The police staffed mobile rapid response
teams, which in Accra, responded promptly and professionally
to minor incidents witnessed by Mission observers. The Ghana
military provided back up for the police with mobile units,
but generally stayed away from polling stations. Security was
tight in the north, particularly in areas where chieftaincy
disputes complicated partisan politics. The most significant
incident reported occurred in Bawku, where people were
dispersed outside the district EC office. (Note: Bawku is an
area with a long running chieftaincy dispute. End Note.)
Similar security plans are expected to be implemented for the
December 28 election.


10. (U) As of December 19, no party controls a majority of
the 230 seat Parliament. The NDC holds 114 seats, the NPP
107, the PNC 2 and the CPP a single seat, won by Samia
Nkrumah, daughter of the first president. Of the remaining
seats, four are held by independents who were formerly
members of the NPP. The NPP claims to have their support,
but the Mission believes that for possibly two of them their
allegiance to the NPP is not all that certain. Finally, two
seats yet to be decided following election irregularities.
One of the undetermined seats resulted from an incident where
ballot boxes were stolen, and may require a new election. It
is likely that most independents and third party MPs will
wait until after the run-off to announce who they intend to
support. In Ghana's strong executive system, there are few
opportunities available for an opposition MP to influence
policy or access resources for his or her constituency.

11. (U) Regardless of who wins the election, the new
President could confront a Parliament controlled by the
opposition party, or almost equally difficult, held by his
own party by only a seat or two, or perhaps one dependent on
a coalition. An opposition controlled parliament would be a
situation Ghana has never before faced. A Parliament
controlled by a party other than the president's would give
the legislative majority power to block revenue bills, hold
up ministerial appointments, halt government contracts,
approve the sale of oil blocks, and carry out a variety of
other measures that could bring the usually powerful
executive to a standstill. A close parliament would give even
small voting blocs of MPs significant power, and make party
discipline difficult to maintain. A watchdog role played by a
powerful opposition party in the legislature could be a good
thing for Ghana's democracy in the long run. On the other
hand, under Ghana's Constitution, an opposition party in
control of Parliament could also paralyze government. It is
such a resounding issue that if one party can lay claim to a
Parliamentary majority, it would likely use the specter of a
split government as a major campaign issue. Time is of the
essence, however. If the High Courts are slow to resolve
disputes, voters (and parties) will not know the true
composition of Parliament by the time December 28 rolls
around. Regardless, however, the next president will face a
Parliament with much more potential for independence than any
prior one in the 4th Republic, and the renegotiation of
political boundaries could be the political story to follow
for the next several years.

12 (U). Pressure and tension will inevitably rise during the

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run-up to the December 28 runoff. Both parties can be
expected to pull out all of the stops in an effort to get out
the vote. The country has now had a good dress rehearsal,
but it was spared the trauma of a final outcome. The
performance of the EC, security forces, and the media should
have instilled confidence in the Ghanaian populace, and we
expect peace once again to prevail. Next time around,
however, there will be a loser, and we already know that a
large percentage of voters will share in that loss. How they
cope with their disappointment will be the true test of
Ghanaian democracy.
TEITELBAUM