GHANA ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENTARY KINGMAKERS

UNCLAS ACCRA 001559 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: GH KDEM PGOV PHUM PINS PREL SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTIONS: PARLIAMENTARY KINGMAKERS ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Although results have not yet been confirmed, it appears certain that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win a minimum of 113 seats in Parliament, while the ruling National Patriotic Party (NPP) is certain to win 108. Candidates outside the two major parties are likely to win 7 seats, and 2 disputed seats could go either way depending on how those contested seats are resolved by Ghana's High Court. Both parties will probably end up short of an outright majority, but could form a voting majority in a coalition with MPs from two minor parties, who may end up wielding undue influence in the next Parliament. The next Parliament could also be the first in Ghana's history to be controlled by the opposition party, a situation which, under Ghana's constitution, could lead to a political stalemate. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) The Electoral Commission (EC) announced results of the presidential election yesterday afternoon at 2:30 p.m., and announced a runoff election between the NPP and NDC on December 28. Final results of Parliamentary races, however, probably will not be confirmed until the end of the week at the earliest. It is already clear that some races will end up in court, and others may take more than a week to be announced or for recounts to be completed. The results, however, are already basically known to the parties and the media, both of whom have been cautious about announcing results in advance of the EC's certification. ¶3. (U) The NDC has won 113 seats, and the NPP has won 108. If you add the two seats in Greater Accra that were awarded to NPP candidates, but because of possible irregularities are being disputed by the NDC (Ayawuso Central, where NPP's Regional Minister for Greater Accra I.C. Quaye won only after an illegal five recounts, and Weija, where NPP's Shirley Botchwey won after ballot boxes were moved),that gives the NPP 110 seats. ¶4. (SBU) Let's assume the NPP retains the disputed seats, and move on to the 7 seats not won by either major party. Of those, 4 seats were taken by independent candidates, all of whom are former NPP members who did not get their party's endorsement to run under the NPP banner. They can be expected to vote with the NPP, raising their effective seat count to 114. That leaves three MPs who can potentially wield a lot of power in the next Parliament. Samia Nkrumah, a political novice who is the daughter of Ghana's founding father Kwame Nkrumah, won the only seat gained by the Convention Peoples Party (CPP). She may remain a true CPP MP, voting independently, or she may be convinced to vote with one of the major parties. Her sympathies most likely fall with the NDC. The other kingmakers are the two winning candidates on the Peoples National Convention (PNC) party ticket, Haruna Biyinga from the Upper West Region and Alhassan Azong from the Upper East. Again, sympathies would tend to fall more to the NDC party, although in the most recent parliament, the PNC tended to vote with the NPP. But with both major parties just 2 votes shy of a majority, the stakes are high, and both parties will probably be courting these three power brokers. At this time, everything depends on the disputed constituencies in Greater Accra. If the NPP holds these constituencies, they gain a majority by luring just 2 of the 3 minor party MPs to their side of the aisle. If the NDC manages to strip those seats away from the NPP, they will have 115 seats, just one shy of a majority. Either way, the three minor-party MPs are likely to be in a position to elicit concessions from the major parties far beyond the insignificant clout of minor parties in the current parliament. ¶5. (U) Whichever candidate wins the presidency, he could very likely confront a Parliament controlled by the opposition party, a situation Ghana has never before faced. It would mean that the majority in Parliament would have the power to block revenue bills, hold up ministerial appointments, halt government contracts, approve the sale of oil blocks, and carry out a variety of other measures that could bring the usually powerful executive to a standstill. A watchdog role played by a powerful opposition party in the legislature could be a good thing for Ghana's democracy in the long run. On the other hand, under Ghana's Constitution, an opposition party in control of Parliament could also paralyze government. It is such a resounding issue that if one party can lay claim to a Parliamentary majority, it would likely use the specter of a split government as its major campaign issue. Time is of the essence, however. If the High Courts are slow to resolve disputes, voters (and parties) will not know the true composition of Parliament by the time December 28 rolls around. TEITELBAUM