GHANA ELECTIONS: FINAL OPINION POLL PREDICTS A

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2028
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PREL KDEM GH
SUBJECT: GHANA ELECTIONS: FINAL OPINION POLL PREDICTS A
RUN-OFF

REF: ACCRA 0473

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Classified By: POLCHIEF Gary Pergl for reasons 1.4 B and D

1.(C) SUMMARY. Ben Ephson, independent pollster and
newspaper editor, predicts a presidential runoff following
the December 7 election. Ephson's "The Daily Dispatch"
predicts the ruling New Patriotic Party will get between 48.2
and 50.2% of the vote, with the opposition National
Democratic Congress (NDC) polling between 44.7 and 46.7%. His
surveys show the parliamentary race tightening, with
significant losses for the NPP and some gains for the NDC.
He projects NPP with 106 definite seats (they currently hold
128 seats) and NDC with 102 seats, up 8 from their current

94. But with 21 races too close to call, either party could
win a majority in Parliament. He predicts that Ghana's other
opposition parties, the Convention Peoples Party and the
Peoples National Convention, will lose ground, with the CPP
facing the possibility of no representation in the next
Parliament. Ephson lamented the amount of money flowing into
the campaign, particularly by the NPP, and again told EMBOFFs
that he had been offered a large bribe by an NPP supporter to
alter his polling data to show the party winning in the first
round. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) In a final pre-election conversation, Ben Ephson met
with the political section on December 3. In a previous
meeting on November 14 (reftel),Ephson predicted a run-off
election for President, a position he continues to support.
Ephson's polling methods involve "person in the market"
interviews in each of the country's 230 Parliamentary
constituencies, and are probably as statistically robust as
other methods used. With a purported margin of error of 2
percent, Ephson's poll, completed in late November, shows the
NPP running at between 48.2 and 50.2%, the latter just
sufficient for a first round victory. The poll shows the NDC
running at between 44.7 and 46.7%, in the range of its
support in the past two general elections. The third place
CPP runs in the range of 5.3 and 7.3%, with the other parties
polling, combined, at less than 2%. Ephson conducted three
surveys during the election season, each polling a total of
4060 registered voters from each of Ghana's 230 parliamentary
constituencies. The data was weighted by the number of
registered voters in each constituency.

3.(U) The November polling shows expected patterns of
regional voting. The NPP polls at 79% in its heartland,
Ashanti, while the NDC runs a strong 70% in its stronghold of
Volta. The poll shows the parties very close in Accra, at
42% for the NDC and 45% for the NPP, a change from 2004 when
the NPP won the region by 52-46%. The NDC continues to lead
in the three northern regions of Upper East, Upper West and
Northern, although these areas have low overall vote counts,
compared to the southern regions. The poll shows the NPP
holding a strong lead in Brong-Ahafo (63% to 29% for the NDC)
and in Eastern (63% to 33%). Central and Western Regions show
leads for the NPP over the NDC that are similar to Greater
Accra (46 to 42%).

4 (C) Ephson lamented the role of money in the current
campaign, saying that he "had never seen so much cash
before." Again, he said quite openly that the NPP had tried
to bribe him with at least $20,000 to produce a poll
favorable to them-- he named the party official offering the
money as Gabby Ochere-Darko, a cousin of the party's
candidate, Akuffo- Addo. He also said, although without
presenting the evidence he claimed to have, that the NPP was
trying to get the names of polling agents for other parties.
The NPP would use this information to bribe agents, and was
willing to pay $1,000 for polling agents to collaborate with
vote rigging. Ephson said that in the past six weeks, in ten
swing constituencies, the NPP had spent large sums of money
trying to secure the parliamentary seats. Asked by POLOFF
where the money was coming from, Ephson said it was coming
out of the government's coffers, primarily from kickbacks on
government-awarded contracts.


5. (U) Ephson gave POLOFFS detailed region by region rundowns
of specific parliamentary races. In Greater Accra's 27
constituencies, he predicts the NDC will gain 4 seats at the
NPP's expense, with two races too close to call. Of Ashanti's
39 seats, the NPP will fall from 36 seats to 35, with two
races too close to call. In Central Region, with a total of
19 seats, NPP will lose 3 races to fall from 16 to 13 seats,
and NDC will gain one. CPP will lose its only seat there,
and 3 seats are too close. Of the Northern Region's 26
seats, NDC will gain 5 for a total of 22, NPP will lose 6 to
fall from 8 to 2, and 2 races are too close to call. Brong
Ahafo Region will basically remain the same, with 14 NPP
seats and 10 for NDC, but 2 races are too close. NPP now

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leads NDC 22 to 6 seats in Eastern Region, but 3 NPP seats
and one NDC seat are too close, giving NDC an edge to pick up
a few seats there, In Western Region, current distribution
is NPP 13, NDC 7, and CPP 2. NPP should hold firm there, but
both CPP seats and one NDC seat are too close. In the NDC's
stronghold Volta region, the only NPP seat will go to the NDC
this time, giving the NDC a sweep of all 22 seats, with the
possible exception of an NDC member running as an
independent. For the 13 Upper East seats, NDC now holds 9,
NPP 2, and the PNC 2. Ephson projects the NDC will pick up
at least one seat from the NPP, and the remaining NPP seat
and both PNC seats are too close to call. Finally, in Upper
West, NDC gains one seat at NPP's expense, and PNC retains
its 2 seats.


6. (U) When you add up the numbers, the NDC, according to
Ephson, has a net gain of 8 seats, from 94 to 102. The NPP
loses 22 seats, going from 128 to 106. He says that 21
constituency races are so tight that he can not make a
prediction. Depending on how those contests break, either
party has a shot at a majority in Parliament. Ephson sees
both minor parties losing ground in Parliament, with the CPP
facing the prospect of legislative oblivion.


6. (C) COMMENT: Although Ephson's methodology does not, in
our minds, lend itself to his claim of a 2 percent margin of
error, his statistical sampling is large enough to give his
polls some credence. More importantly, Ephson is not in
anyone's pocket, which is not something that can be said
about every other opinion pollster in the country. By
default, he is the best game in town. Although he said that
he hopes the NDC wins, and he fears the increasing power of
the NPP, he admitted that he voted CPP in the limited early
balloting that took place December 2. We believe him when he
says that his ultimate meal ticket is his long-term
credibility, and that despite numerous offers, he has never
taken money from any political party. (He did, however,
accept $40,000 in the form of a Democracy and Human Rights
grant from us, and we suspect he gets support from other
donor partners and NGOs.) In this final week before
elections, Ephson has become something of a media darling, in
near constant demand on radio and television, because he is
probably the most trusted election forecaster in Ghana. Four
years ago, Ephson's predictions came closer than any other
poll's to the final tally, but he still underestimated NDC's
vote by 6-8 percent. He thinks he will be closer this year,
and he tried to extract the promise of another grant if his
predictions fall within his margin of error.
TEITELBAUM