GHANA'S NORTH- HOLDING CALM PRIOR TO ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001530

S U S P E C T E D D U P L I C A T E

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM GH
SUBJECT: GHANA'S NORTH- HOLDING CALM PRIOR TO ELECTION


1. (U) SUMMARY. The people of Northern Ghana are preparing
for the December 7 election with the same mix of campaigning,
rallies and calls for peace as the rest of the nation. The
north's history of violence-- including some campaign related
clashes earlier this political season-- is a source of
concern to GOG authorities and others concerned about a
peaceful election. POLOFF traveled November 26-29 in the
Northern Region, visiting Tamale and Yendi, two areas with a
history of localized conflict. POLOFF met with NGO leaders,
party officials, police and Electoral Commission
representatives. The Police and EC assert that they are
ready for December 7. NGO and religious leaders describe a
wide effort to promote a peaceful election, involving
especially outreach to youth. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Northern Ghana's recent history has included periods
of conflict, including the 1994 "Guinea Fowl War" when an
estimated two thousand people were killed in inter-ethnic
clashes. Among the Dagomba people there has been a dispute
over who should succeed as Ya Na (or king),following his
2001 murder in Yendi. The succession continues to stir
passions particularly between two Dagomba clans, a situation
complicated by occasional partisan involvement in the
dispute. In September there were electoral related incidents
in Tamale, resulting in the torching of houses and vehicles
owned by NDP supporters. Northern Ghana (including the
Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions) has the highest
percentage of Muslims in the country. The area is also the
poorest and has the highest level of illiteracy, conditions
northerners are very much aware of and which feature in party
manifestos.


3. (U) Despite these ethnic conflicts, there is no recent
history in the region of sectarian conflict between
Christians and Muslims, and the political parties draw
supporters-- and candidates-- from both faiths. In rural
areas of the north, the villagers-- living in small clusters
of houses-- fly the flags of their favorite parties. In
nearly every case POLOFF observed, villages were displaying
multiple pennants, a sign that people of different political
loyalties were otherwise living and working together.
Northern Ghana has in past elections been a stronghold for
the National Democratic Congress (NDC),although officials
from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) told POLOFF that
they hope to narrow the gap this year, although not
necessarily carry the Northern Region.


Preparations Continue for the Election


4. (U) The Regional Director of the Electoral Commission,
Sylvester Kanyi, told POLOFF that preparations were ahead of
schedule compared to the 2004 election. All election
materials had arrived, except for the ballots which were due
the next day on an AIR FORCE flight. (NOTE: The EC announced
on December 1 that the ballots had been delivered to the
regions. END NOTE.) The training of polling agents-- the
party representatives who observe at the polling stations--
was well underway. (NOTE: The following day, POLOFF attempted
to meet with the Yendi District EC officer, but he was
occupied with training agents. Several party representatives
also said that their agents were receiving training. END
NOTE.) Over 100 police officers had also received basic
training in the election process, Kanyi added, noting that
this should help with election security. The Regional
Director showed off his new fax machine, "delivered last
week," which will allow him to send results to Accra on
election night. Asked about funding for the EC staff and
operations, he said that he was "shocked" that the money
arrived earlier in the week, and that the next day he would
be able to pay his staff.


5. (U) Mensah Gyeabour, the Deputy Regional Police Commander
told POLOFF that "he was confident that the exercise would go
smoothly." Sticking close to his approved talking points,
Gyeabour described planning for the election which will
depend on the police acting as a first line of security,
backed up by the military. The Deputy Commander said that the
police would not allow crowds to form at polling stations
during the day, and that candidates were being asked not to
display or wear party colors near polling stations. The
Police will guard the ballots ahead of the election-- a
carpenter was nearby strengthening a storeroom door to better
secure the materials. The Police will guard not only polling
stations but also key facilities, candidates for Parliament,
and water and power facilities, showing concern over any
effort to disrupt the election or discourage people from
voting. The police will also have mobile teams, equipped with
tear gas and live ammunition. Returning Saturday to Accra,
POLOFF saw two police armored vehicles being transported
toward Tamale. (Comment: Several contacts confirmed to POLOFF
that the police are not respected by the local population,
but that the army is feared. "One soldier can disperse a
crowd," claimed a NDC official in Yendi. End Comment.)

While Calls for a Peaceful Election Are Widespread


6. (U) POLOFF met with Alhaji Hussain Zaharia, a previous
recipient of an Embassy Human Rights Grant and Executive
Director of the Community Development Youth Advisory Centre
(CODEYAC),a vocational training center and social service
agency. Zaharia expressed concerns about how the on-going
chieftaincy dispute among the Dagomba had cut across family
and neighborhood lines and involved the two main parties. He
said that he believed that the opposition NDC had tried to
capitalize on the 2001 killing of the Ya Na, and that some of
the party's supporters believe that a NDC victory will help
their faction in the succession struggle. However, Zaharia
also described the many efforts in the Region to reduce
tensions ahead of the election, including the Sustainable
Peace Initiative, which is serving as a platform for peace
building NGOs. Religious leaders have been involved in peace
promotion efforts, including a training program for forty
imams of mid-sized mosques and twenty "free-lance" preachers
who have been asked to bring a message of peaceful elections
to at least ten mosques each, and to also speak at weddings
and funerals. Other efforts have involved outreach to
traditional leaders, youth leaders and others who influence
community opinion.


7. (U) Vincent Boye-Nai has been the Bishop of the Roman
Catholic Diocese of Yendi since 1999. He also described to
POLOFF efforts to promote a peaceful election. The Bishop
explained that young people no longer trust traditional
leaders, and are frustrated by the lack of opportunity in the
area. He added that chiefs are less able now to control how
their communities vote than in previous years. The Bishop
also noted that some of the tension in Yendi comes from a
split within the local branch of the NPP party. The
country's current vice-president is from the district, and
does not get along with the incumbent member of parliament.
The MP is running for re-election, but is facing not only a
NDC candidate but also an independent with NPP leanings,
raising the possibility of split NPP vote. He believes that
if there are problems with election violence, they will occur
in the rural areas. He said that he had been working with
other religious and community leaders on peace programs,
particularly aimed at youth. He added that the Diocese was
providing election observers as part of the Coalition of
Domestic Election Observers.


8. (U) Near the Bishop's compound are both a Ghana Armed
Forces camp and the compound of the former Ya Na, damaged in
the 2001 attack that led to his death. On the day of the
POLOFF's visit, a large crowd of men had gathered at the
site, listening to a speaker. Adjacent to the compound, near
a residential area, a handful of soldiers manned a sandbagged
checkpoint. POLOFF attempted to approach the soldiers, but
was waved off with the explanation that the area was
restricted.


9. (U) POLOFF met with Fr. Marek Kowalik, a Polish Catholic
priest and sociologist who has been in Ghana since 1986 and
who now runs the Tamale Institute for Cross Cultural Studies,
a training center for missionaries and NGO workers. He
described the various peace making projects he had been
involved with in Tamale, such as peace walks. He also noted
the less than helpful influence of call in radio shows, where
inflammatory statements are often aired. Fr. Kowalik also
said that there were numerous weapons in the region, a legacy
of the chieftaincy disputes.


And the Parties Campaign for Votes

10.(U) POLOFF met with NDC and NPP party officials in both
Tamale and Yendi. In both communities, NDC officials told
how former President Rawlings had visited their communities
earlier in the week, to reportedly large, enthusiastic and
peaceful crowds. NDC officials complained about NPP abuse of
incumbency, a common complaint among NDC members. The Deputy
Regional Secretary in Tamale also said that the security
agencies were biased, and pointed to the lack of arrests
after a thousand voter registration forms were allegedly
taken from a registration center earlier this year by NPP
supporters who used gunfire to disperse onlookers. Asked
about the role of Islam in the election, the Deputy said it
was not an issue, that northern Muslims were less concerned
about a co-religionist being on the party's ticket than they
were about the north's economic development. (NOTE: The NDC
vice presidential candidate, John Mahama, is a northerner and
a Christian, although of Muslim parents. The NPP candidate,
Mahamadu Bawumia, is a northerner and a Muslim. END NOTE.).


11. (U) Not to be outdone, NPP officials were also willing to
share their complaints. In Tamale, the NPP regional
secretary admitted that the party was "the underdog" in the
North, and would not win a majority, although he predicted
gains. He said he was worried about security at the polling
stations, and that NDC supporters would, as he alleged
happened in the past, try to intimidate NPP supporters. He
also warned against NDC efforts at multiple voting, noting
the constituency of Tamale Central, won in 2004 by the NDC,
had a "Saddamesque"--his term-- 97% voter turnout. He pointed
to a NPP concert held a few nights before, where the event
went off without incident. President Kufuor addressed a rally
in Tamale the following day, after dedicating a water
project. NPP supporters , some on motorcycles with
disconnected mufflers, the better to draw attention and
demonstrate their enthusiasm. But most of the citizens of
Tamale seemed content to go about their normal business
without visible signs of enthusiasm for the President's
visit.



12. (SBU) COMMENT. There is a consensus among observers of
Ghanaian politics that if there is to be election violence
this year, it will most likely be in the north, where
chieftaincy issues, poverty, and party manipulation come
together to create a potentially volatile mix. Opinion
leaders were cautious. No one wanted to say that there
wouldn't be problems, but no one--even the most overly
dramatic party officials-- said that the region was on the
brink of post-election chaos. The ingredients for problems
are present, particularly the mixing of traditional
succession struggles with partisan politics. But the efforts
to promote peace are also present, in the work of NGOs and
religious institutions. POLOFF was most intrigued, however,
by the sight of the coalition of party flags flying over
every rural village, and their statement-- perhaps not
overtly intended-- that within very small communities people
were supporting different parties, that apparently they felt
safe and free enough to openly do so, and seemed to
understand and accept that their political opponents were
also the people they lived next door to. END COMMENT.

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