GHANA'S NORTH- HOLDING CALM PRIOR TO ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 001530 S U S P E C T E D D U P L I C A T E SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KDEM GH SUBJECT: GHANA'S NORTH- HOLDING CALM PRIOR TO ELECTION ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. The people of Northern Ghana are preparing for the December 7 election with the same mix of campaigning, rallies and calls for peace as the rest of the nation. The north's history of violence-- including some campaign related clashes earlier this political season-- is a source of concern to GOG authorities and others concerned about a peaceful election. POLOFF traveled November 26-29 in the Northern Region, visiting Tamale and Yendi, two areas with a history of localized conflict. POLOFF met with NGO leaders, party officials, police and Electoral Commission representatives. The Police and EC assert that they are ready for December 7. NGO and religious leaders describe a wide effort to promote a peaceful election, involving especially outreach to youth. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Northern Ghana's recent history has included periods of conflict, including the 1994 "Guinea Fowl War" when an estimated two thousand people were killed in inter-ethnic clashes. Among the Dagomba people there has been a dispute over who should succeed as Ya Na (or king),following his 2001 murder in Yendi. The succession continues to stir passions particularly between two Dagomba clans, a situation complicated by occasional partisan involvement in the dispute. In September there were electoral related incidents in Tamale, resulting in the torching of houses and vehicles owned by NDP supporters. Northern Ghana (including the Northern, Upper East and Upper West Regions) has the highest percentage of Muslims in the country. The area is also the poorest and has the highest level of illiteracy, conditions northerners are very much aware of and which feature in party manifestos. ¶3. (U) Despite these ethnic conflicts, there is no recent history in the region of sectarian conflict between Christians and Muslims, and the political parties draw supporters-- and candidates-- from both faiths. In rural areas of the north, the villagers-- living in small clusters of houses-- fly the flags of their favorite parties. In nearly every case POLOFF observed, villages were displaying multiple pennants, a sign that people of different political loyalties were otherwise living and working together. Northern Ghana has in past elections been a stronghold for the National Democratic Congress (NDC),although officials from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) told POLOFF that they hope to narrow the gap this year, although not necessarily carry the Northern Region. Preparations Continue for the Election ¶4. (U) The Regional Director of the Electoral Commission, Sylvester Kanyi, told POLOFF that preparations were ahead of schedule compared to the 2004 election. All election materials had arrived, except for the ballots which were due the next day on an Air Force flight. (NOTE: The EC announced on December 1 that the ballots had been delivered to the regions. END NOTE.) The training of polling agents-- the party representatives who observe at the polling stations-- was well underway. (NOTE: The following day, POLOFF attempted to meet with the Yendi District EC officer, but he was occupied with training agents. Several party representatives also said that their agents were receiving training. END NOTE.) Over 100 police officers had also received basic training in the election process, Kanyi added, noting that this should help with election security. The Regional Director showed off his new fax machine, "delivered last week," which will allow him to send results to Accra on election night. Asked about funding for the EC staff and operations, he said that he was "shocked" that the money arrived earlier in the week, and that the next day he would be able to pay his staff. ¶5. (U) Mensah Gyeabour, the Deputy Regional Police Commander told POLOFF that "he was confident that the exercise would go smoothly." Sticking close to his approved talking points, Gyeabour described planning for the election which will depend on the police acting as a first line of security, backed up by the military. The Deputy Commander said that the police would not allow crowds to form at polling stations during the day, and that candidates were being asked not to display or wear party colors near polling stations. The Police will guard the ballots ahead of the election-- a carpenter was nearby strengthening a storeroom door to better secure the materials. The Police will guard not only polling stations but also key facilities, candidates for Parliament, and water and power facilities, showing concern over any effort to disrupt the election or discourage people from voting. The police will also have mobile teams, equipped with tear gas and live ammunition. Returning Saturday to Accra, POLOFF saw two police armored vehicles being transported toward Tamale. (Comment: Several contacts confirmed to POLOFF that the police are not respected by the local population, but that the army is feared. "One soldier can disperse a crowd," claimed a NDC official in Yendi. End Comment.) While Calls for a Peaceful Election Are Widespread ¶6. (U) POLOFF met with Alhaji Hussain Zaharia, a previous recipient of an Embassy Human Rights Grant and Executive Director of the Community Development Youth Advisory Centre (CODEYAC),a vocational training center and social service agency. Zaharia expressed concerns about how the on-going chieftaincy dispute among the Dagomba had cut across family and neighborhood lines and involved the two main parties. He said that he believed that the opposition NDC had tried to capitalize on the 2001 killing of the Ya Na, and that some of the party's supporters believe that a NDC victory will help their faction in the succession struggle. However, Zaharia also described the many efforts in the Region to reduce tensions ahead of the election, including the Sustainable Peace Initiative, which is serving as a platform for peace building NGOs. Religious leaders have been involved in peace promotion efforts, including a training program for forty imams of mid-sized mosques and twenty "free-lance" preachers who have been asked to bring a message of peaceful elections to at least ten mosques each, and to also speak at weddings and funerals. Other efforts have involved outreach to traditional leaders, youth leaders and others who influence community opinion. ¶7. (U) Vincent Boye-Nai has been the Bishop of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Yendi since 1999. He also described to POLOFF efforts to promote a peaceful election. The Bishop explained that young people no longer trust traditional leaders, and are frustrated by the lack of opportunity in the area. He added that chiefs are less able now to control how their communities vote than in previous years. The Bishop also noted that some of the tension in Yendi comes from a split within the local branch of the NPP party. The country's current vice-president is from the district, and does not get along with the incumbent member of parliament. The MP is running for re-election, but is facing not only a NDC candidate but also an independent with NPP leanings, raising the possibility of split NPP vote. He believes that if there are problems with election violence, they will occur in the rural areas. He said that he had been working with other religious and community leaders on peace programs, particularly aimed at youth. He added that the Diocese was providing election observers as part of the Coalition of Domestic Election Observers. ¶8. (U) Near the Bishop's compound are both a Ghana Armed Forces camp and the compound of the former Ya Na, damaged in the 2001 attack that led to his death. On the day of the POLOFF's visit, a large crowd of men had gathered at the site, listening to a speaker. Adjacent to the compound, near a residential area, a handful of soldiers manned a sandbagged checkpoint. POLOFF attempted to approach the soldiers, but was waved off with the explanation that the area was restricted. ¶9. (U) POLOFF met with Fr. Marek Kowalik, a Polish Catholic priest and sociologist who has been in Ghana since 1986 and who now runs the Tamale Institute for Cross Cultural Studies, a training center for missionaries and NGO workers. He described the various peace making projects he had been involved with in Tamale, such as peace walks. He also noted the less than helpful influence of call in radio shows, where inflammatory statements are often aired. Fr. Kowalik also said that there were numerous weapons in the region, a legacy of the chieftaincy disputes. And the Parties Campaign for Votes 10.(U) POLOFF met with NDC and NPP party officials in both Tamale and Yendi. In both communities, NDC officials told how former President Rawlings had visited their communities earlier in the week, to reportedly large, enthusiastic and peaceful crowds. NDC officials complained about NPP abuse of incumbency, a common complaint among NDC members. The Deputy Regional Secretary in Tamale also said that the security agencies were biased, and pointed to the lack of arrests after a thousand voter registration forms were allegedly taken from a registration center earlier this year by NPP supporters who used gunfire to disperse onlookers. Asked about the role of Islam in the election, the Deputy said it was not an issue, that northern Muslims were less concerned about a co-religionist being on the party's ticket than they were about the north's economic development. (NOTE: The NDC vice presidential candidate, John Mahama, is a northerner and a Christian, although of Muslim parents. The NPP candidate, Mahamadu Bawumia, is a northerner and a Muslim. END NOTE.). ¶11. (U) Not to be outdone, NPP officials were also willing to share their complaints. In Tamale, the NPP regional secretary admitted that the party was "the underdog" in the North, and would not win a majority, although he predicted gains. He said he was worried about security at the polling stations, and that NDC supporters would, as he alleged happened in the past, try to intimidate NPP supporters. He also warned against NDC efforts at multiple voting, noting the constituency of Tamale Central, won in 2004 by the NDC, had a "Saddamesque"--his term-- 97% voter turnout. He pointed to a NPP concert held a few nights before, where the event went off without incident. President Kufuor addressed a rally in Tamale the following day, after dedicating a water project. NPP supporters , some on motorcycles with disconnected mufflers, the better to draw attention and demonstrate their enthusiasm. But most of the citizens of Tamale seemed content to go about their normal business without visible signs of enthusiasm for the President's visit. ¶12. (SBU) COMMENT. There is a consensus among observers of Ghanaian politics that if there is to be election violence this year, it will most likely be in the north, where chieftaincy issues, poverty, and party manipulation come together to create a potentially volatile mix. Opinion leaders were cautious. No one wanted to say that there wouldn't be problems, but no one--even the most overly dramatic party officials-- said that the region was on the brink of post-election chaos. The ingredients for problems are present, particularly the mixing of traditional succession struggles with partisan politics. But the efforts to promote peace are also present, in the work of NGOs and religious institutions. POLOFF was most intrigued, however, by the sight of the coalition of party flags flying over every rural village, and their statement-- perhaps not overtly intended-- that within very small communities people were supporting different parties, that apparently they felt safe and free enough to openly do so, and seemed to understand and accept that their political opponents were also the people they lived next door to. END COMMENT. TEITELBAUM