GHANA PRE-ELECTION POLLING-- A WIDE MARGIN FOR

UNCLAS ACCRA 001382 SUSPECTED DUPLICATE 001392 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREF PGOV PHUM KDEM GH SUBJECT: GHANA PRE-ELECTION POLLING-- A WIDE MARGIN FOR ERROR REF: REFTEL A: ACCRA 01107 ¶1. (U) Summary. There is limited polling data available ahead of Ghana's December 7 presidential election. The polls that are available show a tight race between the ruling New Patriotic Party and the opposition National Democratic Congress, with neither party strong enough to win a first round election. End Summary. ¶2. (U) A March, 2008 Afro-Barometer survey found Ghanaians overwhelmingly supportive of multi-party politics and democracy. The wide-ranging survey found strong support for the New Patriotic Party government, with respondents giving it good marks for the economy, health care and education services. The survey asked respondents their voting preference, with 46% saying they supported the NPP and 23% the NDC, and 27% providing no response. The level of support for the NPP was down from 52% in a 2005 Afro-Barometer. The Afro-Barometer survey was partially funded by USAID. ¶3. (SBU) In April the Government of Ghana completed, but apparently did not disseminate, an "Opinion Poll on Issues of Concern to the Ghanaian Voter in Election 2008." (Note: Post obtained a copy from a GOG employee. End Note.) The study was conducted through interviews of citizens by field workers from the Research Department of the National Commission for Civic Education (NCCE). The NCCE interviewed twenty-four respondents in each of the country's 230 parliamentary constituencies. Respondents across Ghana cited the quality and accessibility of education as their top concern, followed by health care and agricultural development. Respondents were asked by researchers which party they thought would win the election, with the opposition NDC getting a positive response from 42.9% of respondents and the ruling NPP receiving 42.6%. The Convention Peoples Party received support from 6.3% of respondents. 4.(U) Ben Ephson, editor of the Accra-based "The Daily Dispatch" has been conducting pre-election polling. His August polling found the NDC with a slight lead over the NPP, but without sufficient support for a first round victory. (See Reftel). Ephson is planning a final round of polling in late October. (Note: Ephson's polling was partially supported through a US Embassy Democracy grant. End Note.) 5.(U). Both NDC and NPP officials tell EMBOFFs that they have polling data, and their polls-- which they have not shared with EMBOFFs reportedly show their respective parties heading for resounding victories in the first round of voting. 6.(SBU) A former United States government official working in a private capacity in West Africa has shared information from a survey of Ghanaian voters done by a "European University." The limited survey information available shows the NPP and NDC in a statistical tie with 30.4% and 29.3% with over 30% of the voters undecided. ¶7. (SBU) INR is in the process of contracting with Research International to conduct a pre-election poll in Ghana. A draft questionnaire has been reviewed by POLOFFs. ¶8. (SBU) Comment. Polling data is not widely available in Ghana. There is a risk, as with the party generated data, that "polling results" are meant to either influence voters or justify a post-election claim of election malfeasance and prove a stolen election. The quality of polling data is also difficult to evaluate in a country where micro-level nuances of ethnicity and language can influence voting behavior. The GOG and Afro-Barometer polls were conducted months ago, before the parties had selected vice-presidential candidates or begun active campaigning. Polls asking Ghanaian voters "who are you planning to vote for?" may also derive false responses, as respondents may try to provide a response they believe the pollster wants. End Comment. TEITELBAUM