NIGERIA: PDP WINS CREDIBLE ADAMAWA RE-RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000812 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP WINS CREDIBLE ADAMAWA RE-RUN REF: ABUJA 686 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 26, PolOffs and PolSpec observed the gubernatorial by-election in the north-eastern state of Adamawa. Though not totally without problems, PolOffs agree with the popular assessment that the election was, for the most part, free and fair. With an estimated turnout of around 50 percent, and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) reporting a total of around 560,000 valid votes cast, ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Murtala Nyako defeated opposition Action Congress (AC) candidate Ibrahim Bapetel to be re-installed in the Yola governor's mansion. While AC officials dispute the result and allege the election went "to the highest bidder," they announced they will not challenge the result in court. The Adamawa election demonstrates that when there is political will to hold a fair contest, Nigeria's election officials are capable of doing so. END SUMMARY. -------------- A FAIRLY WELL-RUN AFFAIR... -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 26, PolOffs and PolSpec visited around 25 polling stations both within the state capital Yola and east of Yola to the Cameroon border. PolOffs were surprised to find the Adamawa by-election relatively free, fair, and well-administered. It was a marked contrast to what Embassy officers had observed during past elections (including most recently the March 2008 Kogi state gubernatorial by-election). Most polling stations had opened on or around the 8 a.m. starting time, voting materials were in place (including serialized ballots),party agents from the PDP and AC were present, police were controlling crowds but did not seem overbearing, and voter IDs were checked. Unlike during previous observation trips, Poloffs were not approached by a single person (a voter, observer, or a party agent) complaining about disenfranchisement or rigging. ¶3. (C) Most people we met throughout the day, including INEC officials, party representatives, and domestic and international observers, agreed with our assessment that both the campaigning and the conduct of the poll itself went smoothly and were well-run. Turnout at the polling stations we visited ranged from 30%-60%. In a meeting with Poloffs April 25, former Vice President and 2007 AC Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar told us that the playing field in Adamawa was fairly level and he expected the AC to do well at the polls. He also told reporters April 26 that he was impressed by both INEC's preparations for the poll and its conduct on the day of the event. While casting his own vote, AC candidate Bapetel also expressed satisfaction with INEC's handling of the election. ¶4. (SBU) The few irregularities that we observed were minor. In several instances, people who looked far younger than the minimum age of 18 required by law attempted to vote. In each case INEC officials challenged the voter, attempting by questioning and asking others present to ascertain the true age of the person in question; in most cases, the erstwhile voter was turned away. We found a few polling stations that opened an hour or two late. We also observed some presiding officers struggling to check in voters using disorganized, unalphabetized voters' rolls, leading to long lines and frustration. While most presiding officers were able to find creative ways to process voters in timely fashion (such as ignoring the voters' roll and allowing anyone with a valid ID for that polling station to vote, or reading off names from the list and processing voters in that order rather than by queue),lack of an organized voters' roll is an ongoing logistical challenge. Though only a handful of parties fielded candidates for the Adamawa by-election, and only the PDP and AC were serious contenders, the ballots were generic and listed the names and symbols of at least 30 parties in two columns. As we observed counting, we noticed that there were many invalid votes cast for parties not contesting. Most of these invalid votes were for the MRDD, the party that was in the next column (to the right of) the AC. We believe ABUJA 00000812 002 OF 002 that most of these votes were intended for the AC, but that uneducated voters did not understand where to place their thumbprint. At one polling unit, for example, we witnessed a count of 206 PDP votes, 55 AC votes, and six total votes for other minor candidates from the four other parties contesting. There were however 44 "invalid" votes out of the 311 cast (more than 14% of the total for the polling unit). Poor ballot design and lack of voter education are likely causes for such a high rate of invalid votes. ¶5. (C) Some contacts, however, reported more serious problems than what the U.S. Embassy team observed. Media reports indicated that some violence occured statewide on election day, with one person killed and several injured in scuffles in Yola and Michika. During the week before the election, prominent PDP and AC apparatchiks and scores of their "thugs" were arrested for allegedly "sponsoring political thuggery and mayhem" during political rallies. Also, the National Democratic Institute's (NDI) monitoring team claim to have observed some instances of outright vote-buying and intimidation, and, when asked to intervene, police on the scene claimed that doing so wasn't their job. NDI also reported a general pattern of poor communication between INEC and the police force, with police generally unsure of what role exactly they were to play in the elections. Members of the Action Congress alleged that bribery played a role in the election outcome, however, U.S. Embassy observers cannot confirm or deny those reports. -------------- ...BUT THE AC REJECTS THE RESULTS -------------- ¶6. (C) INEC announced April 27 that PDP candidate and former Governor Nyako won the Adamawa election, with 362,000 votes to Bapetel's 202,000. After the results were announced, Bapetel called the poll a "fairy tale," alleging that the ballot papers had been designed to disenfranchise the AC by tricking voters into voting for another party. (Note: As mentioned above, we did indeed see a surprisingly high number of votes for the MRDD party, whose block was next to the AC's on the ballot and who did not have a candidate in the election, but we do not believe the ballot could have been designed to purposely produce that result, and such spoiled ballots would have had to number in the tens of thousands to alter what was a landslide victory for the PDP. End Note.) The AC's public relations officer, Lai Mohammed, claimed the election was evidence of the Federal Government's "depravity," and that Nigerians "will be shocked to their bone marrows" to know the extent of official complicity in the allegedly stolen election. He offered no specifics as to how such fraud was carried out and, despite such serious accusations, the AC has declared it will not appeal Nyako's victory. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The Adamawa election demonstrates that when there is political will to hold a reasonably fair contest, Nigeria's election officials are capable of running a credible election. Prior to the election, the AC officials we spoke to (including Atiku) were optimistic about AC candidate Bapetel's chances of winning. Local sentiment, however, seemed to credit Nyako with using his eight months in office very well, winning public support through high profile infrastructure projects. And though the area we visited was admittedly small, of the ballots whose markings we could see through the clear sides of the ballot box, 60%-80% were indeed for the PDP. We believe that many voters freely decided that the PDP government could deliver services to them, and voted accordingly. After INEC announced they had lost, the AC was quick to complain of irregularities and rigging. In an April 29 meeting with the Ambassador (septel),Atiku complained that the election had been "sold to the highest bidder", and that the AC lost because he had refused to pay bribes to INEC and other officials. He also alleged that the results had been falsified at the Local Government Area (LGA) level, because in his view it was not possible that the AC lost every LGA in the state. However, based on our observations on the ground, we believe that though there were some irregularities, this election was more transparent than others in recent memory. END COMMENT. SANDERS