NIGERIA: PDP WINS CREDIBLE ADAMAWA RE-RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000812

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP WINS CREDIBLE ADAMAWA RE-RUN

REF: ABUJA 686

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 26, PolOffs and PolSpec observed the
gubernatorial by-election in the north-eastern state of
Adamawa. Though not totally without problems, PolOffs agree
with the popular assessment that the election was, for the
most part, free and fair. With an estimated turnout of
around 50 percent, and the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) reporting a total of around 560,000 valid
votes cast, ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate
Murtala Nyako defeated opposition Action Congress (AC)
candidate Ibrahim Bapetel to be re-installed in the Yola
governor's mansion. While AC officials dispute the result
and allege the election went "to the highest bidder," they
announced they will not challenge the result in court. The
Adamawa election demonstrates that when there is political
will to hold a fair contest, Nigeria's election officials are
capable of doing so. END SUMMARY.

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A FAIRLY WELL-RUN AFFAIR...
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2. (C) On April 26, PolOffs and PolSpec visited around 25
polling stations both within the state capital Yola and east
of Yola to the Cameroon border. PolOffs were surprised to
find the Adamawa by-election relatively free, fair, and
well-administered. It was a marked contrast to what Embassy
officers had observed during past elections (including most
recently the March 2008 Kogi state gubernatorial
by-election). Most polling stations had opened on or around
the 8 a.m. starting time, voting materials were in place
(including serialized ballots),party agents from the PDP and
AC were present, police were controlling crowds but did not
seem overbearing, and voter IDs were checked. Unlike during
previous observation trips, Poloffs were not approached by a
single person (a voter, observer, or a party agent)
complaining about disenfranchisement or rigging.


3. (C) Most people we met throughout the day, including INEC
officials, party representatives, and domestic and
international observers, agreed with our assessment that both
the campaigning and the conduct of the poll itself went
smoothly and were well-run. Turnout at the polling stations
we visited ranged from 30%-60%. In a meeting with Poloffs
April 25, former Vice President and 2007 AC Presidential
candidate Atiku Abubakar told us that the playing field in
Adamawa was fairly level and he expected the AC to do well at
the polls. He also told reporters April 26 that he was
impressed by both INEC's preparations for the poll and its
conduct on the day of the event. While casting his own vote,
AC candidate Bapetel also expressed satisfaction with INEC's
handling of the election.


4. (SBU) The few irregularities that we observed were minor.
In several instances, people who looked far younger than the
minimum age of 18 required by law attempted to vote. In each
case INEC officials challenged the voter, attempting by
questioning and asking others present to ascertain the true
age of the person in question; in most cases, the erstwhile
voter was turned away. We found a few polling stations that
opened an hour or two late. We also observed some presiding
officers struggling to check in voters using disorganized,
unalphabetized voters' rolls, leading to long lines and
frustration. While most presiding officers were able to find
creative ways to process voters in timely fashion (such as
ignoring the voters' roll and allowing anyone with a valid ID
for that polling station to vote, or reading off names from
the list and processing voters in that order rather than by
queue),lack of an organized voters' roll is an ongoing
logistical challenge. Though only a handful of parties
fielded candidates for the Adamawa by-election, and only the
PDP and AC were serious contenders, the ballots were generic
and listed the names and symbols of at least 30 parties in
two columns. As we observed counting, we noticed that there
were many invalid votes cast for parties not contesting.
Most of these invalid votes were for the MRDD, the party that
was in the next column (to the right of) the AC. We believe

ABUJA 00000812 002 OF 002


that most of these votes were intended for the AC, but that
uneducated voters did not understand where to place their
thumbprint. At one polling unit, for example, we witnessed a
count of 206 PDP votes, 55 AC votes, and six total votes for
other minor candidates from the four other parties
contesting. There were however 44 "invalid" votes out of the
311 cast (more than 14% of the total for the polling unit).
Poor ballot design and lack of voter education are likely
causes for such a high rate of invalid votes.


5. (C) Some contacts, however, reported more serious problems
than what the U.S. Embassy team observed. Media reports
indicated that some violence occured statewide on election
day, with one person killed and several injured in scuffles
in Yola and Michika. During the week before the election,
prominent PDP and AC apparatchiks and scores of their "thugs"
were arrested for allegedly "sponsoring political thuggery
and mayhem" during political rallies. Also, the National
Democratic Institute's (NDI) monitoring team claim to have
observed some instances of outright vote-buying and
intimidation, and, when asked to intervene, police on the
scene claimed that doing so wasn't their job. NDI also
reported a general pattern of poor communication between INEC
and the police force, with police generally unsure of what
role exactly they were to play in the elections. Members of
the Action Congress alleged that bribery played a role in the
election outcome, however, U.S. Embassy observers cannot
confirm or deny those reports.

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...BUT THE AC REJECTS THE RESULTS
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6. (C) INEC announced April 27 that PDP candidate and former
Governor Nyako won the Adamawa election, with 362,000 votes
to Bapetel's 202,000. After the results were announced,
Bapetel called the poll a "fairy tale," alleging that the
ballot papers had been designed to disenfranchise the AC by
tricking voters into voting for another party. (Note: As
mentioned above, we did indeed see a surprisingly high number
of votes for the MRDD party, whose block was next to the AC's
on the ballot and who did not have a candidate in the
election, but we do not believe the ballot could have been
designed to purposely produce that result, and such spoiled
ballots would have had to number in the tens of thousands to
alter what was a landslide victory for the PDP. End Note.)
The AC's public relations officer, Lai Mohammed, claimed the
election was evidence of the Federal Government's
"depravity," and that Nigerians "will be shocked to their
bone marrows" to know the extent of official complicity in
the allegedly stolen election. He offered no specifics as to
how such fraud was carried out and, despite such serious
accusations, the AC has declared it will not appeal Nyako's
victory.


7. (C) COMMENT: The Adamawa election demonstrates that when
there is political will to hold a reasonably fair contest,
Nigeria's election officials are capable of running a
credible election. Prior to the election, the AC officials
we spoke to (including Atiku) were optimistic about AC
candidate Bapetel's chances of winning. Local sentiment,
however, seemed to credit Nyako with using his eight months
in office very well, winning public support through high
profile infrastructure projects. And though the area we
visited was admittedly small, of the ballots whose markings
we could see through the clear sides of the ballot box,
60%-80% were indeed for the PDP. We believe that many voters
freely decided that the PDP government could deliver services
to them, and voted accordingly. After INEC announced they
had lost, the AC was quick to complain of irregularities and
rigging. In an April 29 meeting with the Ambassador
(septel),Atiku complained that the election had been "sold
to the highest bidder", and that the AC lost because he had
refused to pay bribes to INEC and other officials. He also
alleged that the results had been falsified at the Local
Government Area (LGA) level, because in his view it was not
possible that the AC lost every LGA in the state. However,
based on our observations on the ground, we believe that
though there were some irregularities, this election was more
transparent than others in recent memory. END COMMENT.
SANDERS