NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POL/ECON UPDATES FOR APR 1-15,

UNCLAS ABUJA 000760 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA DEPT PASS TO USTR-AGAMA DOE FOR GPERSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON EPET ETRD KJUS KCOR NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POL/ECON UPDATES FOR APR 1-15, 2008 THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (U) Following is a joint Embassy Abuja-ConGen Lagos compilation of April 1-15, 2008 political/economic highlights, which did not feature in our other reporting, covering: -- Election Tribunals -- PDP Politics -- Corruption -- National Assembly -- Economic News -- Oil and Gas -- Other News -------------- ELECTION TRIBUNALS -------------- ¶2. (U) Chair of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Maurice Iwu delivered a lecture, entitled "April 2007 elections: What Went Right," at the University of Ibadan. Iwu excoriated the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), and said the spate of state and federal assembly elections that tribunals and appeals courts had been nullifying throughout the country were due to intra-party disagreements within the PDP. Iwu also blamed the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and the former Attorney General under Obasanjo for problems with the 2007 polls (judged by many observers to have been largely fraudulent). ¶3. (U) SOKOTO: On April 11, the Kaduna Court of Appeal overturned the election of Sokoto governor Aliyu Wamakko (PDP) and deputy governor Mukhtar Shagari (former president Shehu Shagari's son),claiming they were not qualified to stand on the platform of the PDP. Wamakko and Shagari had been candidates of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) until they decamped to the PDP in early February 2007. The Democratic People's Party had appealed the decision of the Sokoto State Election Tribunal to uphold Wamakko's election. The State House Assembly Speaker was sworn-in as acting governor pending the results of a new election. (Wamakko served as deputy to former governor Bafarawa from 1999 until 2005, when he resigned following impeachment allegations by the State Assembly.) New elections are expected within three months. ¶4. (U) KEBBI: The election of Saidu Usman Dakingari (PDP) was upheld April 11 by the Kaduna Court of Appeal, overruling the Kebbi Election Tribunal's earlier decision against Dakingari (who is also President Yar'Adua's son-in-law). ¶5. (U) KANO, ZAMFARA, KATSINA, KADUNA: The Kaduna Court of Appeal struck out challenges to the elections of Kano governor Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP),Zamfara governor Mahmud Shinkafi (ANPP),and Katsina governor Ibrahim Shema (PDP). Also, the Kaduna State Election Tribunal upheld the election of Kaduna governor Namadi Sambo (PDP). ¶6. (U) BAYELSA: The Port Harcourt Court of Appeal overturned the election of Bayelsa governor Timipre Sylva (PDP) April 15, rejecting the Bayelsa Election Tribunal's earlier ruling. Fresh elections have been ordered within 90 days. -------------- PDP POLITICS -------------- ¶7. (U) PDP National Chair Vincent Ogbulafor urged party members to practice the politics of inclusion. Ogbulafor said during his tenure he hopes to entice more people to the party by reforming the PDP through working with opposition state executives. Ogbulafor also endorsed the idea of a one-party state and said he envisions a time when all Nigerians "would become members of the ruling party and the country would become a one-party state." In addition, the PDP Chair remarked that the PDP wants to "rule for 60 years." ¶8. (SBU) Nigerian press reported April 14 that former PDP National Chair Ahmadu Ali, who had been approved as Nigeria's Ambassador to South Africa, had yet to collect his accreditation papers from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Press indicated Ali may decline the ambassadorship, in protest over being refused an ambassadorial nod to a more "developed" country (i.e., the U.S. or U.K.),and remain in Nigeria. Ali is also reportedly angry over the treatment he has received from President Yar'Adua. -------------- CORRUPTION -------------- ¶9. (U) Media reports claim that former Wema Bank Managing Director Adebisi Omoyeni was sacked by the Central Bank (CBN). John Aboh was appointed to replace him. The CBN and Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) accused Omoyeni of concealing facts about bank operations. Following his appointment, Aboh announced Wema bank was healthy, and the CBN and NDIC concurred. Omoyeni has sent a petition to President Yar'Adua asserting that he was removed from Wema Bank because he blocked the bank's acquisition by First City Monument Bank (FCMB). According to Omoyeni, former Wema Bank Chief Executive Officer and current CBN Deputy Governor for Financial Sector Surveillance, Tunde Lemo, championed FCMB's acquisition attempt. Omoyeni was later arrested by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on March 27 for allegedly perpetrating a $4 million fraud, and other sundry financial crimes. Tunde Lemo has been invited to appear before the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission (ICPC) to answer questions about his stewardship of Wema Bank, but has so far refused to appear. The ICPC has threatened to arrest Lemo. ¶10. (SBU) While reports of pirate attacks on fishing trawlers and cargo ships on Nigeria's coastal water have increased in recent years, a U.S. Coast Guard officer visiting Lagos port told EconOff that the criminal activities on Nigeria's coastal water do not meet the technical definition of piracy. U.S. shipping companies in Lagos told EconOff that while the increasing rate of criminal activity has resulted higher business costs, this problem is expected in some parts of the world, including Nigeria, and companies can absorb the additional cost. The biggest challenge for shipping companies continues to be corruption and bureaucratic bottlenecks at Nigerian ports of entry. -------------- NATIONAL ASSEMBLY -------------- ¶11. (U) The Senate reconvened April 15 after a four-week recess. Besides final passage of the 2008 budget, which President Yar'Adua signed April 14, the Senate will address Constitutional review, and investigations into the Health Committee scandal as well as the sale of federal properties, demolition of houses and revocation of lands in the Federal Capital Territory under former President Obasanjo. -------------- ECONOMIC NEWS -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Ministry of Transport Requests Technical Assistance: On April 7, Ministry of Transportation (MOT) Director Dr. Bolade requested technical support to rebuild Nigeria's roads, railways, airports, and waterways; the technical assistance request stems from President Yar'Adua's December 2007 meeting with President Bush. The MOT solicited support in identifying U.S. contractors, engineers, and investors for roads and railway construction. MOT hopes General Electric will revisit their pledge of support and develop contracting partners for rail refurbishment, and that the USG identify engineering firms to construct bridges. ¶13. (SBU) TIFA Working Group: The U.S.-Nigeria Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) Working Group's first quarterly digital video conference (DVC) took place April 10. The USG was represented by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, State, Department of Commerce, Export-Import Bank, Small Business Administration, U.S. Trade Development Agency, African Development Foundation, USAID and the Department of Agriculture. The GON was led by Badeji Abikoye, newly appointed Director of Trade at the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Abikoye spent the last six years as Nigeria,s Trade Chief at the Nigerian Consulate in Shanghai, China.) Nigerian agencies present were the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Standards Organization of Nigeria, Nigerian Customs Service, Nigerian Export Promotion Council, Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, and the Association of Nigerian Exporters. The five hour DVC covered AGOA, trade and investment, transportation, energy, infrastructure, trade capacity building and other assistance. It was agreed that both sides would continue to communicate at regular intervals to discuss bilateral trade issues. ¶14. (SBU) Intellectual Property Rights Working Group: As part of the TIFA Working Group a separate DVC was held between the USG intellectual property rights (IPR) working group comprising USTR, State, Department of Justice, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, the Department of Commerce and the Nigerian Copyright Commission (NCC) on April 9. The DVC focused on IPR enforcement, status of pending IP legislation, public awareness, and training/technical assistance. Both sides agreed to develop an action plan and hold regular meetings to review progress made. (Post will report septel on the TIFA in more detail). ¶15. (U) Food Prices: Nigeria is a major rice importer and although global prices have gradually increased, domestic prices have not matched it. A possible reason is that stockpiles from the 2007 season are still available. When importers buy new supplies the price is likely to go up. Local bakers are considering a 25% price increase per bread loaf due to rising prices for wheat flour and sugar. The price of bread will increase from $.97 to $1.28 and from $1.28 to $1.58, depending on loaf size. In February 2008, Nigerian bakers petitioned the GON to regulate commodity prices and raw materials, however were rebuffed. In response, bakers are considering a nationwide strike on April ¶23. -------------- OIL AND GAS -------------- ¶16. (SBU) On April 8, the Managing Director of Texaco Nigeria (Chevron's downstream operation in Nigeria) Ruben Halfhuid told the Ambassador that Chevron has decided to sell Texaco Nigeria. The move is part of a broader strategic review of Chevron's worldwide operations. The sale does not/not reflect on Chevron's interest in upstream oil production in Nigeria or future investments in the natural gas sector. A senior local Chevron executive told Lagos EconOff that Chevron remains committed to the upstream sector in the region. ¶17. (U) Gasoline shortages and long lines at local gas stations continue to plague the country, and Lagos in particular. Government regulators stopped another shipment of gasoline that contained too high a percentage of ethanol. As previously reported, gasoline mixed with ethanol had been pulled from the market in March 2008 after motorists complained of engine damage. In a statement to the press, one union official speculated that shortages could be connected to the upcoming expiration of an agreement between unions and the GON not to raise the price of gasoline. In the paper, the union official warned of strikes if the government attempted to raise the gasoline price, currently set at 70 naira ($ 0.60) per liter. -------------- OTHER NEWS -------------- ¶18. (U) Former Chief of Army Staff General Ishaya Bamaiyi, who served under former Head of State Sani Abacha, was acquitted of murder April 3. Bamaiyi had been standing trial since 1999 for the attempted murder of Alex Ibru, publisher of Nigerian newspaper The Guardian, and former Delta State Sports Commissioner Isaac Porbeni. Bamaiyi had been arrested and charged along with Abacha's Chief Security Officer by a Special Investigation Panel established by former President Obasanjo, prompting rumors Bamaiyi's arrest was politically motivated. SANDERS