NIGERIA: KOGI STATE PREPARES FOR BY-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000485

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ASEC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: KOGI STATE PREPARES FOR BY-ELECTION
AMIDST CONCERNS OF VIOLENCE


Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b
& d).


1. (C) Summary: Poloffs visited Lokoja, capital of Kogi
State March 4-5 to meet with government officials, political
activists, and civil society ahead of the state's upcoming
March 29 gubernatorial by-election. While the Governor's
Chief of Staff and an Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) official proclaimed that Kogi is peaceful
and that preparations for the election are on track, the
state Action Congress (AC) Chairman warned of possible
violence, and members of a human rights organization
expressed concerns about violent clashes between the police
and youths in Okene (a town about one hour from Lokoja) and
feared that the by-election would be rigged. End Summary.

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Government, INEC Assure All is Well
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2. (U) Poloffs called on Dr. Bala Haruna, Chief of Staff to
acting Governor Clarence Olafemi and previously to Governor
Ibrahim Idris (both PDP). (Note: The Court of Appeal
annulled Idris' election on February 6 and ordered a
by-election. Acting Governor Olafemi has retained all of
Idris' cabinet and staff and has publicly pledged to return
Idris to office. End Note.) Dr. Haruna explained that most
other ranking government officials and PDP activists were
unavailable for meetings because they had traveled to Lafia,
Nassarawa State for the PDP zonal congress. He welcomed our
visit to Kogi and was happy to learn that the Embassy would
be returning to observe the state's March 29 by-election.
Dr. Haruna was confident that the state was peaceful,
election preparations were going well, and that immediate
past Governor Ibrahim Idris would win and return to office.


3. (SBU) Following INEC policy, Poloffs sent a letter to INEC
headquarters in Abuja to request an appointment with the Kogi
State Regional Electoral Commissioner (REC - the highest
ranking election official in the state). However, Chairman
Maurice Iwu officially denied our appointment request on
grounds that REC was "too busy" preparing for the by-election
to see foreign diplomats. Despite this, Poloffs dropped by
the Lokoja INEC office and were able to speak with the head
of administration. The INEC official received us with some
hostility, and seemed reluctant to discuss the March 29
by-election in any detail. He brushed off any questions
about election preparations, offering that the by-election
was nothing extraordinary and that INEC had it under control.
He gave us no information on accreditation of observers,
nomination of candidates or printing of ballots, saying those
matters would be handled by headquarters in Abuja. He did
explain that INEC staff from other states would be brought in
to help run the by-election, so use of ad hoc staff would not
be necessary. Poloffs noticed a posted schedule of training
for by-election staff, so it appears that some preparations
for the March 29 election are underway.

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Opposition Warns of Rigging, Violence
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4. (C) Mike Adeleye, Kogi State Chairman of the opposition
Action Congress party told Poloffs that the AC has agreed to
partner with the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) and
support the ANPP candidate, former Governor Prince Abubakar
Audu, in the March 29 election. (Note: Abubakar Audu has
governed Kogi twice before, from 1991-1993 under the banner
of the Babangida-era National Republican Convention party and
from 1999-2003 as ANPP. End Note.) Adeleye was happy about
the good cooperation between opposition parties in Kogi and
was confident that the voters would choose Audu based on his
record. Adeleye noted that "under Audu there was no violence
in the state" and complained of routine violence under the
PDP administration of the state. According to Adeleye, the
Kogi Central Senatorial district is "boiling" due to ongoing
conflicts between residents who support the AC and the PDP,
especially the "imposed" PDP local government chairmen. He
explained that Governor Idris installed acting Local
Government Area (LGA) chairmen from the PDP in all of the
state's 21 LGAs without holding elections. In March 2007,
the court ordered that Kogi must hold LGA elections, but that

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has not happened yet.


5. (C) Adeleye explained that the ANPP and AC planned to send
their supporters to follow election materials from the INEC
office through distribution to polling places and back again
and that they would engage in "mandate protection" if
necessary. The opposition is encouraging use of camera
phones to document irregularities. The AC Chairman
complained of bias on the part of most INEC and security
officials in the April 2007 general election, and worried
that same will happen March 29. In Adeleye's opinion, the
State Security Service (SSS) was "more fair" than the police
during the general election and he was happy with reports
that National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members may be
brought in to help administer the election, as youth corps
participants were more likely to be unbiased. He also said
repeatedly that AC and ANPP would engage in "self help" if
the government refused to conduct a fair election. Poloffs
believed the chairman's ominous undertone was that the
phrases "mandate protection" and "self-help" meant violence
would be used if necessary. We also noticed that immediately
following his meeting with Poloffs, Adeleye hosted a meeting
of all the state AC chairmen from the north-central region to
help "strategize for the by-election." This seemed to
indicate that ANPP and AC activists from neighboring states
may be brought in during the by-election to help with
"mandate protection."

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Violence in Okene
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6. (SBU) Poloffs met with two human rights activists based in
Kogi State who explained there has been violence in the Kogi
Central Senatorial district for many years due to clashes
between the Ebira and Igala tribes and within various Ebira
clans. However, the tension has increased and taken on a
political tone recently due to the outcome of the April 2007
elections. Kogi Central is inhabited mostly by the Ebira
ethnic group, who are predominantly AC members. The Ebira
felt that it was their turn to have one of their own, Senator
Muhammad Ohiare, elected as Governor; and they have
repeatedly clashed with PDP supporters (who were also Ebira)
in the area resulting in violence. Both human rights
activists, although each supported a different gubernatorial
candidate, voiced concern over the possibility of additional
violence during the upcoming by-election, as well as attempts
of rigging similar to what they observed in April 2007.


7. (SBU) When asked about media reports of violence
committed by police in the town of Okene in Kogi Central, the
human rights activists explained that the clashes were
directly related to the Ajaokuta steel plant located outside
of Lokoja and the National Iron Ore Mining Company that was
built in Okene to supply iron ore to Ajaokuta. The federal
government sold the Ajaokuta plant two years ago and its
profits have dwindled, resulting in much of the iron ore
being exported for low prices. To protest the plant's sale
and the surrounding community's resulting economic downturn,
some youths in Okene allegedly seized six trailer loads of
iron ore. When the police intervened, two youths were
killed, prompting the youths to retaliate by killing one
police officer and kidnapping another. According to media
reports and contacts, the police then went on a rampage
burning over 50 buildings and killing at least 20 people.
Poloffs drove to Okene and confirm that dozens of buildings,
including the police station, and several vehicles had
recently been burned. Based on the destruction, which
appeared selective because only certain buildings were
affected by the fire in a crowded, high-density part of town,
Poloffs believed that the reports of 20 deaths seem quite
modest.

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Comment
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8. (C) Comment: From the evidence of destruction we saw in
Okene, the recent violence there was serious, resulting in
loss of lives and property. However, most of our Lokoja
contacts seemed to downplay the incident as police trying to
maintain order against unruly youth. While members of the

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local community may have started the cycle of violence, it
seemed clear from visiting Okene that the local police used
considerable, probably excessive, force against the
community. Unfortunately, there is not much hope that the
Kogi State gubernatorial by-election will be more free and
fair than last April's general election. Indeed, it may be
more violent, especially with tensions already running high
amongst the Ebira in Okene and the rest of Kogi Central
district. We will send a team to Kogi State to observe the
March 29 by-election and will report on the outcome. End
Comment.
SANDERS