(S/NF) NIGERIA: ATIKU TELLS YAR'ADUA NO DEAL UNTIL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000457 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/AA, AF/W DOE FOR GPERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2033 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI SUBJECT: (S/NF) NIGERIA: ATIKU TELLS YAR'ADUA NO DEAL UNTIL OBJ GOES REF: 07 ABUJA 1821 Classified By: PolCouns Walter Pflaumer for Reasons 1.4 (b, c, & d). ¶1. (S//NF) SUMMARY: While the Presidential Election Tribunal ruled to uphold President Yar'Adua's (People's Democratic Party, PDP) April 2007 election, conversations with Garba Shehu (strictly protect),a confidant of Action Congress (AC) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, suggest that Yar'Adua remained uncertain about the Tribunal's outcome days before the judgment was revealed, and that he continues to fear challenges to his election at the Supreme Court. Shehu claimed that, following the Presidential Election Tribunal's February 26 ruling, Yar'Adua visited Atiku at his Abuja residence, exhorting him to reconsider appealing the Tribunal ruling to the Supreme Court. As recently as February 18, Shehu intimated, Yar'Adua had sent emissaries to Atiku to entreat him to withdraw his petition before the electoral tribunal and join Yar'Adua's national unity government. Shehu said these talks had failed because Yar'Adua was "unable" to meet Atiku's demand to remove former President Obasanjo from his leadership position within the PDP, and indict Obasanjo on corruption charges. ¶2. (S//NF) SUMMARY CONT'D: Without Yar'Adua's explicit pledge to attenuate Obasanjo's influence and position within the PDP, and Yar'Adua's own government, Shehu averred that Atiku would not entertain the possibility of withdrawing his petition and joining Yar'Adua's government. Shehu added that Atiku had also demanded that Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chair Maurice Iwu be removed, and the AC be given prominent positions within Yar'Adua's administration. Shehu claimed that a "desperate" Obasanjo had, twice within the past few months, offered Atiku the presidency in return for his aid in unseating Yar'Adua. Shehu claimed that, as of March 1, Obasanjo has been continuing efforts to overturn Yar'Adua's election by attempting to bribe justices on the Supreme Court. Shehu also asserted that former Defense Minister T.Y. Danjuma had told him that, in 2006, Obasanjo instructed then-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir el-Rufai to draw up a list of governors from the North to assist in the selection of Obasanjo's successor; he claimed that Obasanjo had deliberately chosen Yar'Adua 
because medical records suggested that Yar'Adua's ill health would inhibit his ability to govern, or perhaps lead to his early demise, thus returning the presidency to the South. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (S//NF) Garba Shehu (strictly protect),confidant of Action Congress (AC) presidential aspirant former Vice President Atiku Abubakar spoke with POLOFF March 1. After the Presidential Election Tribunal delivered its February 26 ruling to uphold President Yar'Adua's April 2007 election, Shehu said President Yar'Adua visited Atiku at his Abuja residence, exhorting Atiku to reconsider an appeal to the Supreme Court. Prior to the Tribunal verdict, Shehu intimated that since November 2007 President Yar'Adua had sent Government Secretary Babagana Kingibe, Attorney General Michael Aondoakaa, and Defense Minister Mahmud Ahmed on separate occasions to meet with Atiku's representatives Tom Ikimi, Lawal Kaita, Iyorchia Ayu, and Usman Bugaje while Atiku remained outside the country (Atiku returned from Dubai February 23 and met with PolCouns March 4, to be reported septel). (Note: Tom Ikimi was Foreign Minister under Abacha (1995-98); Katsina native and G-18 member Lawal Kaita served as representative of the defunct People's Democratic Movement led by the President's elder brother Shehu Yar'Adua; former Minister under Obasanjo and director of Atiku's presidential campaign Iyorchia Ayu faced trumped up terrorism charges in February 2007 in the lead-up to the April 2007 presidential race; Usman Bugaje is the current AC National Secretary (Ref A). AC stalwart Abubakar Rimi and former AC National Secretary Bashir Dalhatu formally joined Yar'Adua's SIPDIS government in August 2007. End Note.) ¶4. (S//NF) Through his emissaries, Yar'Adua entreated Atiku to withdraw his petition at the Presidential Election Tribunal and join his national unity government, insisting the court case against the President was destabilizing the ABUJA 00000457 002 OF 003 polity and sowing uncertainty in the minds of Nigerians. When Yar,Adua emissaries Attorney General Aondoakaa and Defense Minister Ahmed had last met with the Atiku camp February 17, Shehu averred that they appeared increasingly "desperate" to get Atiku to withdraw his petition to the Presidential Election Tribunal. Atiku told them his price for doing this would be for Yar'Adua to remove Obasanjo from the PDP, and ensure that Atiku replace him as Chair of the PDP Board of Trustees (BOT). Atiku had argued that if Obasanjo remained PDP BOT Chair, and the presidential elections were overturned (either at the Tribunal or Supreme Court),Obasanjo would assure that Yar'Adua be removed and that the PDP would nominate another, more loyal candidate for the presidency. ¶5. (S//NF) Shehu told POLOFF that Atiku's camp had apprised Yar'Adua of potential Obasanjo schemes to remove him from power. Shehu said Atiku had also demanded that Yar'Adua indict Obasanjo on corruption charges, and had provided "substantial" evidence of Obasanjo's illicit enrichment activities during his tenure. Shehu confided that Atiku also had passed information to Yar'Adua that Obasanjo sent former Governor Andy Uba to bribe Presidential Election Tribunal Justice James Ogebe (and two other justices) to rule against Yar'Adua's election. Shehu also claimed that, as of March 1, Obasanjo is continuing efforts to overturn Yar'Adua's election by attempting to bribe justices on the Supreme Court. ¶6. (S//NF) In addition, Shehu noted that Atiku had informed Yar'Adua about individuals within his inner circle, whom Atiku claimed had been compromised by Obasanjo (i.e., Chief of Staff Mohammed and Yar'Adua's security detail) and positioned by Obasanjo to "purposely" mislead and report on Yar'Adua's activities inside the Villa. In spite of Atiku's several overtures, according to Shehu, Yar'Adua appeared "unable" to take on Obasanjo. Without Yar'Adua's explicit pledge to attenuate Obasanjo's influence within the PDP and Yar'Adua's own government, Shehu averred that Atiku would not entertain the possibility of withdrawing his petition and joining Yar'Adua's government. ¶7. (S//NF) Additionally, Shehu said Atiku had demanded that Yar'Adua reprimand Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chair Maurice Iwu, who presided over the April 2007 elections, and reshuffle his cabinet to grant the AC prominent positions. Yar'Adua's March 5 announcement that he would sack nine ministers for "non-performance," Shehu claimed, is a result of on-going negotiations between Yar'Adua and Atiku to allocate positions within Yar'Adua's cabinet to the AC. Shehu told POLOFF March 6 that Yar'Adua last met Atiku at the latter's residence March 4, and that Atiku had also telephoned Yar'Adua during the latter's visit to China February 26. (Note: While Buhari filed an appeal to the Supreme Court February 29, as of March 7, Atiku had not filed. Atiku has until March 18 to file an appeal. End Note.) ¶8. (S//NF) Concerning possible Obasanjo entreaties to Atiku, Shehu intimated that a "desperate" Obasanjo had approached Atiku through Andy Uba in November 2007 and late February 2008 to reconcile. According to Shehu, Obasanjo had offered Atiku the presidency, should the latter join his efforts to unseat Yar'Adua. Shehu remarked that, while attractive and potentially viable, Obasanjo's offer came with several strings to which Atiku could not comfortably accede, in particular, that Obasanjo remain PDP BOT Chair. ¶9. (S//NF) Moreover, Shehu divulged that in early February, T.Y. Danjuma, former Army Chief (in Obasanjo's military regime 1976-79) and Defense Minister (1999-2003),told him that in the lead-up to the December 2006 PDP primaries, Obasanjo had instructed then-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir el-Rufai to draw up a list of potential presidential candidates from the North, one of whom Obasanjo would eventually anoint as his successor. Reportedly, El-Rufai had narrowed the list to Kaduna governor Ahmed Makarfi and Katsina governor Umaru Yar'Adua. According to Danjuma, Obasanjo had ordered El-Rufai to retrieve copies of Makarfi and Yar'Adua's medical records to determine the state ABUJA 00000457 003 OF 003 of their health. Shehu said Danjuma contended that Obasanjo had selected Yar'Adua because he believed Yar'Adua's poor health would either weaken his ability to govern (allowing Obasanjo to do so from behind) or lead to Yar'Adua's early demise, which would then permit (former Bayelsa governor) Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to bring the presidency back to the South. ¶10. (S//NF) Shehu claimed Danjuma believed that Obasanjo had never intended to allow power to remain in the North (given what Obasanjo deemedQhe North's disloyalty to him),and purposely anointed a candidate whose health was failing. Danjuma averred that in retribution for several northern politicians, retraction of their support for Obasanjo's 2006 third term bid, Obasanjo had vowed the "North will pay, one way or another." (Comment: Much of the South, of course, also did not support Obasanjo's third term ambitions. End Comment.) Danjuma had also said that in August 2006 Obasanjo had also directed Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) Chair Nuhu Ribadu to assemble a list of the governors who had opposed Obasanjo's third term agenda in order to indict them on corruption charges. ¶11. (S//NF) As Yar'Adua began to evince greater independence from Obasanjo over the past six months, Shehu opined that Obasanjo has become increasingly frustrated by what he perceives as Yar'Adua's "treachery." Shehu claimed that on several occasions, Obasanjo has relayed messages through the Sultan of Sokoto and the Emir of Katsina (both of whom are close associates of Yar'Adua) lamenting what Obasanjo saw as Yar'Adua's perfidy toward him and to the legacy of elder brother Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, Deputy Head of State in Obasanjo's military government, 1976-79. ¶12. (S//NF) COMMENT: Atiku's assessment of Yar'Adua as unable to challenge Obasanjo underscores our contention that Yar'Adua remains politically isolated. Even with a win at the Presidential Election Tribunal, it is unclear whether Yar'Adua's tenuous grip on power and perceptions of his illegitimacy have waned. The Tribunal's ruling was adjudged a farce by many inside the courtroom, and among contacts of the Mission. Further, uncertainty continues to surround the March 8 PDP Convention and the eventual Supreme Court judgment on Yar'Adua's election, and both will be tests for Yar'Adua's ability to influence and lead the PDP. END COMMENT. SANDERS