(S/NF) NIGERIA: ATIKU TELLS YAR'ADUA NO DEAL UNTIL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000457

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR INR/AA, AF/W
DOE FOR GPERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2033
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM NI
SUBJECT: (S/NF) NIGERIA: ATIKU TELLS YAR'ADUA NO DEAL UNTIL
OBJ GOES

REF: 07 ABUJA 1821

Classified By: PolCouns Walter Pflaumer for Reasons 1.4 (b, c, & d).


1. (S//NF) SUMMARY: While the Presidential Election Tribunal
ruled to uphold President Yar'Adua's (People's Democratic
Party, PDP) April 2007 election, conversations with Garba
Shehu (strictly protect),a confidant of Action Congress (AC)
presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar, suggest that Yar'Adua
remained uncertain about the Tribunal's outcome days before
the judgment was revealed, and that he continues to fear
challenges to his election at the Supreme Court. Shehu
claimed that, following the Presidential Election Tribunal's
February 26 ruling, Yar'Adua visited Atiku at his Abuja
residence, exhorting him to reconsider appealing the Tribunal
ruling to the Supreme Court. As recently as February 18,
Shehu intimated, Yar'Adua had sent emissaries to Atiku to
entreat him to withdraw his petition before the electoral
tribunal and join Yar'Adua's national unity government.
Shehu said these talks had failed because Yar'Adua was
"unable" to meet Atiku's demand to remove former President
Obasanjo from his leadership position within the PDP, and
indict Obasanjo on corruption charges.


2. (S//NF) SUMMARY CONT'D: Without Yar'Adua's explicit pledge
to attenuate Obasanjo's influence and position within the
PDP, and Yar'Adua's own government, Shehu averred that Atiku
would not entertain the possibility of withdrawing his
petition and joining Yar'Adua's government. Shehu added that
Atiku had also demanded that Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) Chair Maurice Iwu be removed, and the AC be
given prominent positions within Yar'Adua's administration.
Shehu claimed that a "desperate" Obasanjo had, twice within
the past few months, offered Atiku the presidency in return
for his aid in unseating Yar'Adua. Shehu claimed that, as of
March 1, Obasanjo has been continuing efforts to overturn
Yar'Adua's election by attempting to bribe justices on the
Supreme Court. Shehu also asserted that former Defense
Minister T.Y. Danjuma had told him that, in 2006, Obasanjo
instructed then-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory
Nasir el-Rufai to draw up a list of governors from the North
to assist in the selection of Obasanjo's successor; he
claimed that Obasanjo had deliberately chosen Yar'Adua
because medical records suggested that Yar'Adua's ill health
would inhibit his ability to govern, or perhaps lead to his
early demise, thus returning the presidency to the South.
END SUMMARY.


3. (S//NF) Garba Shehu (strictly protect),confidant of
Action Congress (AC) presidential aspirant former Vice
President Atiku Abubakar spoke with PolOff March 1. After
the Presidential Election Tribunal delivered its February 26
ruling to uphold President Yar'Adua's April 2007 election,
Shehu said President Yar'Adua visited Atiku at his Abuja
residence, exhorting Atiku to reconsider an appeal to the
Supreme Court. Prior to the Tribunal verdict, Shehu
intimated that since November 2007 President Yar'Adua had
sent Government Secretary Babagana Kingibe, Attorney General
Michael Aondoakaa, and Defense Minister Mahmud Ahmed on
separate occasions to meet with Atiku's representatives Tom
Ikimi, Lawal Kaita, Iyorchia Ayu, and Usman Bugaje while
Atiku remained outside the country (Atiku returned from Dubai
February 23 and met with PolCouns March 4, to be reported
septel). (Note: Tom Ikimi was Foreign Minister under Abacha
(1995-98); Katsina native and G-18 member Lawal Kaita served
as representative of the defunct People's Democratic Movement
led by the President's elder brother Shehu Yar'Adua; former
Minister under Obasanjo and director of Atiku's presidential
campaign Iyorchia Ayu faced trumped up terrorism charges in
February 2007 in the lead-up to the April 2007 presidential
race; Usman Bugaje is the current AC National Secretary (Ref
A). AC stalwart Abubakar Rimi and former AC National
Secretary Bashir Dalhatu formally joined Yar'Adua's

SIPDIS
government in August 2007. End Note.)


4. (S//NF) Through his emissaries, Yar'Adua entreated Atiku
to withdraw his petition at the Presidential Election
Tribunal and join his national unity government, insisting
the court case against the President was destabilizing the

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polity and sowing uncertainty in the minds of Nigerians.
When Yar,Adua emissaries Attorney General Aondoakaa and
Defense Minister Ahmed had last met with the Atiku camp
February 17, Shehu averred that they appeared increasingly
"desperate" to get Atiku to withdraw his petition to the
Presidential Election Tribunal. Atiku told them his price
for doing this would be for Yar'Adua to remove Obasanjo from
the PDP, and ensure that Atiku replace him as Chair of the
PDP Board of Trustees (BOT). Atiku had argued that if
Obasanjo remained PDP BOT Chair, and the presidential
elections were overturned (either at the Tribunal or Supreme
Court),Obasanjo would assure that Yar'Adua be removed and
that the PDP would nominate another, more loyal candidate for
the presidency.


5. (S//NF) Shehu told PolOff that Atiku's camp had apprised
Yar'Adua of potential Obasanjo schemes to remove him from
power. Shehu said Atiku had also demanded that Yar'Adua
indict Obasanjo on corruption charges, and had provided
"substantial" evidence of Obasanjo's illicit enrichment
activities during his tenure. Shehu confided that Atiku also
had passed information to Yar'Adua that Obasanjo sent former
Governor Andy Uba to bribe Presidential Election Tribunal
Justice James Ogebe (and two other justices) to rule against
Yar'Adua's election. Shehu also claimed that, as of March 1,
Obasanjo is continuing efforts to overturn Yar'Adua's
election by attempting to bribe justices on the Supreme Court.


6. (S//NF) In addition, Shehu noted that Atiku had informed
Yar'Adua about individuals within his inner circle, whom
Atiku claimed had been compromised by Obasanjo (i.e., Chief
of Staff Mohammed and Yar'Adua's security detail) and
positioned by Obasanjo to "purposely" mislead and report on
Yar'Adua's activities inside the Villa. In spite of Atiku's
several overtures, according to Shehu, Yar'Adua appeared
"unable" to take on Obasanjo. Without Yar'Adua's explicit
pledge to attenuate Obasanjo's influence within the PDP and
Yar'Adua's own government, Shehu averred that Atiku would not
entertain the possibility of withdrawing his petition and
joining Yar'Adua's government.


7. (S//NF) Additionally, Shehu said Atiku had demanded that
Yar'Adua reprimand Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) Chair Maurice Iwu, who presided over the April 2007
elections, and reshuffle his cabinet to grant the AC
prominent positions. Yar'Adua's March 5 announcement that he
would sack nine ministers for "non-performance," Shehu
claimed, is a result of on-going negotiations between
Yar'Adua and Atiku to allocate positions within Yar'Adua's
cabinet to the AC. Shehu told PolOff March 6 that Yar'Adua
last met Atiku at the latter's residence March 4, and that
Atiku had also telephoned Yar'Adua during the latter's visit
to China February 26. (Note: While Buhari filed an appeal to
the Supreme Court February 29, as of March 7, Atiku had not
filed. Atiku has until March 18 to file an appeal. End
Note.)


8. (S//NF) Concerning possible Obasanjo entreaties to Atiku,
Shehu intimated that a "desperate" Obasanjo had approached
Atiku through Andy Uba in November 2007 and late February
2008 to reconcile. According to Shehu, Obasanjo had offered
Atiku the presidency, should the latter join his efforts to
unseat Yar'Adua. Shehu remarked that, while attractive and
potentially viable, Obasanjo's offer came with several
strings to which Atiku could not comfortably accede, in
particular, that Obasanjo remain PDP BOT Chair.


9. (S//NF) Moreover, Shehu divulged that in early February,
T.Y. Danjuma, former Army Chief (in Obasanjo's military
regime 1976-79) and Defense Minister (1999-2003),told him
that in the lead-up to the December 2006 PDP primaries,
Obasanjo had instructed then-Minister of the Federal Capital
Territory Nasir el-Rufai to draw up a list of potential
presidential candidates from the North, one of whom Obasanjo
would eventually anoint as his successor. Reportedly,
El-Rufai had narrowed the list to Kaduna governor Ahmed
Makarfi and Katsina governor Umaru Yar'Adua. According to
Danjuma, Obasanjo had ordered El-Rufai to retrieve copies of
Makarfi and Yar'Adua's medical records to determine the state

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of their health. Shehu said Danjuma contended that Obasanjo
had selected Yar'Adua because he believed Yar'Adua's poor
health would either weaken his ability to govern (allowing
Obasanjo to do so from behind) or lead to Yar'Adua's early
demise, which would then permit (former Bayelsa governor)
Vice President Goodluck Jonathan to bring the presidency back
to the South.


10. (S//NF) Shehu claimed Danjuma believed that Obasanjo had
never intended to allow power to remain in the North (given
what Obasanjo deemedQhe North's disloyalty to him),and
purposely anointed a candidate whose health was failing.
Danjuma averred that in retribution for several northern
politicians, retraction of their support for Obasanjo's 2006
third term bid, Obasanjo had vowed the "North will pay, one
way or another." (Comment: Much of the South, of course,
also did not support Obasanjo's third term ambitions. End
Comment.) Danjuma had also said that in August 2006 Obasanjo
had also directed Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC) Chair Nuhu Ribadu to assemble a list of the governors
who had opposed Obasanjo's third term agenda in order to
indict them on corruption charges.


11. (S//NF) As Yar'Adua began to evince greater independence
from Obasanjo over the past six months, Shehu opined that
Obasanjo has become increasingly frustrated by what he
perceives as Yar'Adua's "treachery." Shehu claimed that on
several occasions, Obasanjo has relayed messages through the
Sultan of Sokoto and the Emir of Katsina (both of whom are
close associates of Yar'Adua) lamenting what Obasanjo saw as
Yar'Adua's perfidy toward him and to the legacy of elder
brother Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, Deputy Head of State in
Obasanjo's military government, 1976-79.


12. (S//NF) COMMENT: Atiku's assessment of Yar'Adua as unable
to challenge Obasanjo underscores our contention that
Yar'Adua remains politically isolated. Even with a win at
the Presidential Election Tribunal, it is unclear whether
Yar'Adua's tenuous grip on power and perceptions of his
illegitimacy have waned. The Tribunal's ruling was adjudged
a farce by many inside the courtroom, and among contacts of
the Mission. Further, uncertainty continues to surround the
March 8 PDP Convention and the eventual Supreme Court
judgment on Yar'Adua's election, and both will be tests for
Yar'Adua's ability to influence and lead the PDP. END
COMMENT.
SANDERS