PDP NATIONAL CHAIR ASPIRANT CONFIDENT REFORMISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000419

SIPDIS

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DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: PDP NATIONAL CHAIR ASPIRANT CONFIDENT REFORMISTS
WILL PREVAIL

Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons
1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) POLOFF met with Pius Anyim leading party chairmanship
candidate of what might be described as the anti-Obasanjo
(and self-styled "reformist") camp of the ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP),and Daniel Richard, a PDP activist
and something of a campaign manager for Anyim. Former
President Obasanjo, who is still head of the PDP Board of
Trustees (BOT) is backing Sam Egwu, a former governor for PDP
Chairman. Anyim, for his part, also appears to have the
support of a "godfather" of his own, former Head of State
Ibrahim Babangida. Despite newspaper reports of a plot to
disqualify Anyim from contesting the election and reported
efforts to manipulate delegate lists, he was confident that
he will win the PDP Chairmanship election, if it is open and
fair. (Note: A ruling is scheduled for March 4 in a suit
before the Abuja High Court brought by party members to stop
the March 8 convention, asserting that it was not properly
convened per party bylaws. End note.) END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Anyim and PDP activist Daniel Richard said Obasanjo is
actively campaigning for Sam Egwu, former Governor of Ebonyi
State, to be Chairman; they claimed there is a groundswell of
support for Anyim's candidacy from numerous sitting governors
in the north who realize that if Egwu wins, they will all be
under Obasanjo's control or face replacement as PDP
gubernatorial candidate after one term. According to Richard
and Anyim, the new governors have not done as much as
Obasanjo expected to protect his interests and those of his
allies against investigation by the EFCC and ICPC. Indeed,
in some cases, the new governors have actively supported EFCC
investigations. (Note: The sitting governors will have
considerable influence at the convention, since they would
each bring as voting delegates ten special assistants, ten
state commissioners, all the PDP members of the state
assembly, as well as local party officials.)


3. (C) Richard and Anyim were also confident, given the
secret ballot system at the convention, that when it comes

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time to cast their ballots, most delegates will opt for
Anyim's promised decentralization and democratization of the
party, rather than acquiescing to continued rule by fiat by
the Obasanjo clique. They thus seemed unconcerned about
reported attempts by current PDP National Chair and unabashed
Obasanjo ally Ahmadu Ali to vet and manipulate the lists of
potential delegates and candidates.


4. (C) Anyim was confident that he would not be disqualified
as a candidate and doubted that the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) would again postpone the PDP
national convention, although he considered a court
injunction postponing it a possibility. (Note: INEC has the
authority to determine not only the timetable for
presidential elections, but also for political party
elections. End note.) Subsequently, three members of the PDP
filed suit against the party in the Abuja High Court. The
three, Alhaji Abdullahi Maibirgi, Chief Iroha, Hajia Ceceko
Asmau Ahmed who claim to represent a group dubbed the
"Renaissance PDP" maintain that the party national convention
must be convened by the National Central Working Committee as
outlined in the party constitution, and not by the National
Executive Committee. The case is set to be decided March 4.


5. (SBU) According to press reports, Anyim enjoys substantial
support from members of the Integrity Group, a group of
pro-reform PDP members from the House of Representatives, and
G-21, another group of current and former members of both
chambers of the National Assembly who have attempted to
remove Obasanjo from his leadership position within the PDP,
though Anyim has not been formally endorsed. Party Chairman
Ali and Obasanjo did not help Egwu's candidacy by their
alleged shoddy treatment and disrespect of Speaker of the
House Bankole during the recent meeting of the PDP National
Executive Committee. In retaliation, many PDP members in the
House of Representatives have pledged in the press to vote as
a bloc for Anyim. (Note: Speaker Bankole's father, a
respected party elder, is also a founder and active member of
the G-21.)


6. (C) COMMENT: The current goings on in the PDP are as much
(if not more so) a struggle for influence amongst competing

factions as they are about reform or maintaining the status
quo, meaning acts of illicit enrichment, intimidation and
autocracy. Political maneuverings and intrigues are in full
swing in Nigeria, as pro- and anti-Obasanjo camps compete for
advantage at ward and local government congresses in advance
of the March 8 convention, many of which have been marred by
violence. There are no fewer than 25 declared candidates for
PDP National Chairman. If Anyim is to be believed, he may in
fact have a plurality of votes if not an absolute majority,
though the existence of so many challengers may dilute the
anti-Obasanjo vote, at least in early ballots. The reformist
mood among many in the party would seem to work to Anyim's
advantage. Various press reports suggest Anyim also has the
less savory political backing of former president and
powerbroker Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) as well as former Board
of Trustees Chair and ex-Obasanjo ally Tony Anenih, who was
unceremoniously supplanted by Obasanjo as BOT Chair when the
latter stepped down as president. Many observers think IBB
is supporting Anyim for party Chairman as the first step in
his own political comeback. A court judgment to postpone the
convention would presumably also mean that the amendment to
the party by-laws regarding eligibility requirements for
chairmanship of the party's BOT (which currently eliminate
all but Obasanjo from consideration) would again be in play,
as the petition will have been submitted two months prior to
the convention, and thus eligible for consideration. END
COMMENT.
SANDERS