PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL VERDICT DUE FEB 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000343 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL VERDICT DUE FEB 26 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Presidential Election Tribunal in Abuja announced February 21 that it would deliver its verdict on February 26. On the same day, the Benue State Election Tribunal revealed that it will convene on Saturday, February 23 to announce its ruling in the petition against Senate President David Mark. Both announcements were sudden and came after allegations that some in the Villa and in the PDP (other than Yar'Adua) had tried to to influence judges. In addition, February 19 President Yar'Adua nominated Appeals Court Justice James Ogebe, Head of the Presidential Election Tribunal, to the Supreme Court. Many observers have questioned the propriety of the Presidency naming Ogebe to the Supreme Court now while he is still considering whether or not to uphold the President's own election. Yar'Adua is scheduled to spend next week in China on an official visit, but we will watch closely to see whether he feels confident enough to be outside Nigeria when the tribunal delivers its verdict. End Summary. Sudden Announcements of Crucial Verdicts -------------- ¶2. (C) Though verdicts were expected soon in the cases challenging the elections of both Senate President David Mark (PDP, Benue State) and President Yar'Adua (PDP),the sudden announcement on February 21 that rulings would be delivered within days was surprising. The Presidential Election Tribunal in Abuja will deliver its verdict on Tuesday, February 26, while the Benue State Election Tribunal revealed that it will announce its ruling Saturday, February 23 on the petition against Mark. The scheduling of the David Mark verdict is not only sudden but odd, given that Nigerian courts do not normally sit over the weekend. The Benue State Attorney General told the Embassy's political assistant February 22 that he was quite certain Mark's election will be annulled. Alleged Attempts to Influence Judges -------------- ¶3. (C) On February 19, the Presidency submitted to the Senate the names of Appeals Court Justices James Ogebe and Mukhtar Coomasie to fill vacancies on the Supreme Court. This move spurred criticism by some observers, as Ogebe is the Head of the Presidential Election Tribunal (and thus has the power to determine the President's fate) and Coomasie this week delivered a controversial ruling in favor of Obasanjo loyalist and deposed Anambra Governor Andy Uba. Several weeks ago, an online news site (Saharareporters.com) alleged that the President's allies attempted to bribe Justice Ogebe through his son Emmanuel, who resides in Washington, DC. One of our local employees knows Emmanuel Ogebe and visited him in Washington during the time when the alleged bribe attempt took place. The Embassy employee confirms that the judge's son was offered money for a favorable verdict, but that Justice Ogebe (reportedly a staunch Christian) was insulted by the bribe attempt and turned it down. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The timing of this week's events is simply too strange to be ignored. Why would the President choose to nominate Justice Ogebe to the Supreme Court now? (Note: Ogebe was reportedly recommended for promotion in November 2007 by the National Judicial Council, an independent body chaired by Chief Justice Kutigi that makes recommendations to the President regarding judicial appointments. End Note.) At best the timing looks sloppy and at worst it appears to be a desperate move by an executive afraid of losing office. We believe that the sudden scheduling of the Mark and Presidential verdicts are the Judiciary's attempts to reassure the public of judicial independence and to avoid the appearance of any conflict of interest (which would taint any verdict and provide additional grounds for appeal). Even giving the benefit of the doubt and assuming that when Ogebe's Supreme Court nomination was announced the tribunal had already completed its deliberations but not publicly announced a verdict date, the coincidence of the two events still gives pause. Commentators speculate that the decision in the Mark case was accelerated in response to the Presidential verdict date, as the judges want to be sure that ABUJA 00000343 002 OF 002 Mark's position is resolved one way or the other before the Presidential ruling. This does not/not mean that an annulment of the Presidential election is certain, but rather that the judges in Benue or perhaps even Chief Justice Kutigi, who stays in regular touch with the various courts in a coordinating role, want to have the David Mark matter resolved and out of the way before even the possibility of a presidential election annulment. ¶5. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: A GON delegation led by President Yar'Adua and including Foreign Minister Maduekwe is scheduled to leave Nigeria on or about February 24 for an official visit to China. It will be interesting to watch what the President does in light of the February 26 judgment date. Will he continue with the trip abroad and risk international embarrassment if he loses his case? Or will he cancel or postpone the China trip and risk the appearance that he is nervous about his tenure? We are betting that he will go forward with his trip. END COMMENT. SANDERS