NIGERIA: KOGI BY-ELECTION MARCH 29

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000322 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: KOGI BY-ELECTION MARCH 29 REF: ABUJA 253 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (U) Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that the gubernatorial by-election in Kogi State will be held March 29. This will be the first time a gubernatorial poll has been re-run in Nigeria, and its conduct will set precedent for other state races, and possibly, any presidential by-election. INEC spokesman Phillip Umeadi explained that only parties who contested the April 14, 2007 gubernatorial election will be able to participate in the fresh poll. Parties will have until March 15 to submit the names of their candidates, however the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) must re-nominate its candidate from April 2007, Prince Abubakar Audu, as his omission from the April ballot and subsequent petition at the election tribunal caused the by-election. There are recent reports of violence in Kogi Central constituency, allegedly committed by groups of young men who had been armed by various politicians before the April elections and re-activated in the run-up to the new polls. The government is reportedly considering sending soldiers to Kogi to provide security during the election. ¶2. (C) COMMENT: It is strange that when given 90 days within which to conduct a fresh election, INEC has chosen to do so in only 52 days. INEC is desperately trying to reassure foreign and domestic audiences that "everything is under control" after the mess that was the April 2007 elections. Unfortunately, there is little evidence or hope that INEC has anything under control, since there have been no significant changes in policy or personnel since last April. Although President Yar'Adua's electoral reform commission is still deliberating on possible reforms, the voter register is a mess, few voters have ID cards, new ballots need to be printed and distributed (but candidates won't be known until March 17!),and ad hoc staff will need to be hired and trained -- all within the next six weeks. For all these reasons, the Kogi by-election is not likely to be any better than the April 2007 general election, though at least this time the ANPP candidate will be on the ballot. Post will continue to watch Kogi closely as an important test case. Poloffs plan to travel to Lokoja (the state capital) next week and Emboffs will observe the polling March 29. End Comment. ¶3. (C) LOOKING AHEAD: In recent days there has been a great deal of talk among political actors and observers about how a presidential by-election (if ordered by the courts) would be conducted. The Constitution and 2006 Electoral Act are quite vague, and there is no real precedent to follow. Many observers are worried that it will be near-impossible to conduct a credible presidential election within the 90 days allowed by law, especially since there have been no personnel changes at INEC. In press articles last week, senior Nigerian lawyers disagreed regarding whether parties would be free to change their candidates in a by-election. The Kogi case would seem to indicate that at least some parties would be allowed to nominate new presidential candidates in the event of a by-election. A fresh nomination process will make holding an election within 90 days even more complicated. It may also open the door to new intrigues within the President's own People's Democratic Party (PDP). There are forces within the ruling party who would like to see President Yar'Adua replaced for various reasons, such as former President Babangida who seems to desire a comeback. If heavy hitters within the PDP believe they can both remove Yar'Adua through the Tribunal process and re-gain the presidency with a new candidate, political pressure on the judges to annul the election could increase. SANDERS