NIGERIA: SUPREME COURT REPORTEDLY TO RULE DECEMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002382 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SUPREME COURT REPORTEDLY TO RULE DECEMBER 12 ON 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CASE REF: A. ABUJA 2065 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. ABUJA 2339 ¶C. ABUJA 2123 Classified By: Ambassador Robin R. Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Poloff was contacted morning of Wednesday, December 10, by Buba Galadima, close personal aide to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) Presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari who said the latter's lawyers were told that the Supreme Court (SC) would convene morning of December 12 to render its judgment on the 2007 Presidential Election. Later on December 10, PolAssistant reached Atiku's spokesman, Garba Shehu, who confirmed the information. ¶2. (C) The Mission does not expect any violence in Abuja or its surroundings in light of the SC decision. In fact, whatever happens is likely to be as anticlimactic here as was the February 2008 Appeals Court ruling, which went in favor of President Yar'Adua. There is still a 50-50 chance for the SC to rule either for or against Yar'Adua. The President's health remains a factor, but all of our previous reporting (see reftels) has outlined the possible scenarios if Yar'Adua remains on seat, or if the 2007 election is annulled. In either case, Nigeria will remain sluggish with unfocused leadership if Yar'Adua's election is upheld, or faced with another disorganized (as INEC has not been reformed) chaotic election process fraught with rigging and election misconduct if the 2007 is overturned. ¶3. (SBU) Embassy officers and PolAssistant plan to attend the session and will report as soon as we get a judgment. ¶4. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. Sanders