NIGERIA: JOS APPARENTLY CALM; OFFICIAL IDP NUMBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002366 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DRL - KAREN GILBRIDE, DS/IP/AF, DS/TIA/ITA DEPT PASS TO USAID/DCHA/OFDA - T. WAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KIRF ASEC NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: JOS APPARENTLY CALM; OFFICIAL IDP NUMBER RISES REF: A. ABUJA 2363 ¶B. ABUJA 2358 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Another day of calm passed in the Plateau State capital Jos as there were no reports of violence. Samaila Mohammed, Chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) Party for the Jos North Local Government Area (LGA), told Poloff that peace would remain as long as the state government "follows justice." Mohammed said, however, he would be "very afraid" of the violence that might occur if the state government attempted to swear in the alleged winners of the November 27 LGA elections or did not cancel the election results. Mohammed challenged Governor Jonah Jang's accusation that nationals from Chad and Niger were responsible for the violence, demanding some semblance of proof from the state government and/or investigating agency. USAID implementing partners on the ground in Jos estimated 40,000 - 50,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) at 20 camps located around Jos. Partners report the camps are in need of food, water, blankets, and clothes for the IDPs. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) There were no reports of violence in the past 24 hours in the Plateau State capital of Jos. In a December 4 conversation, Samaila Mohammed, Chairman of the opposition All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) for the Jos North Local Government Area (LGA),told Poloff that peace would remain as long as the state government "follows justice." Samaila stated that the November 27 Jos North LGA election was rigged and the results should not stand. Mohammed confirmed that the actual conduct of voting appeared to be free and fair, but alleged that members of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) began manipulating the results as soon as the vote count began (Comment: a standard tactic here. End comment). The PDP's attempts to change the results angered ANPP voters instigating a clash, according to Mohammed. Although he did not share concerns about additional violence surrounding the Eid al-Adha holiday on December 8-9, Mohammed said he would be "very afraid" of the violence that could occur if the state government attempted to swear in the alleged winners of the November 27 LGA elections. Only if the state government "follows justice" and cancels the elections, would peace remain, said Mohammed. Challenging Governor Jonah Jang's accusation that nationals from Chad and Niger were responsible for the violence, Mohammed demanded some semblance of proof be provided by the state government and/or investigating agency. Mohammed intimated that it was the Governor's way of redirecting blame for what actually took place and that those arrested were regular inhabitants of Jos, not "mercenaries" imported to cause trouble. ¶3. (C) USAID implementing partners in Jos reported an estimated 40,000 - 50,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) were located at 20 camps around the city. The camps are located in mosques, churches, police, army, and air force barracks, schools and other government agency properties. The largest camp is located at the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) facility in Jos, with approximately 6,000 IDPs, according to a women's rights organization contact who visited the camps. According to the partners, IDPs were in need of food, water, blankets, and clothing. Market and shop openings remain sporadic, thus making it difficult to acquire necessities and increasing prices when available. ¶4. (C) An American missionary from Serving in Mission (SIM) reported to RSO and Conoff that pastors in northern areas of Nigeria told him that a SIM office and one of several of its residential compounds in Jos are being targeted by unspecified Muslims. One threat referred by name to four Americans living on the residential compound identified. Non-essential personnel have been moved to other locations in ABUJA 00002366 002 OF 002 and around Jos, and additional police have been requested to safeguard those locations. Both RSO and Conoff remain in contact with SIM, other missionaries, wardens and others. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: ANPP Party Chairman Mohammed's comments regarding the PDP and Governor Jang (like Jang's attempts to blame the crisis on Chadian and Nigerien foreign agitators) are obviously partisan and should be treated with caution. His fear of violence if the LGA elections are not canceled is, however, cause for concern. While the continuing heavy security force presence in Jos may help keep the lid on there for now, we caution that those forces also have a well deserved reputation for heavy handedness and indiscipline. Ambassador will address humanitarian issues, particularly regarding the IDP camps at a scheduled December 4 meeting with Governor Jang. END COMMENT. ¶6. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulate Lagos. Sanders