NIGERIA: THE VIEWS OF ONE DELTA POLITICIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002009 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: THE VIEWS OF ONE DELTA POLITICIAN ILLUSTRATE THE PERCEPTION GAP Classified By: A/DCM Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) On October 9, Polcouns spoke with Sokonte Davies, PDP Member of the House of Representatives for the Degema-Bonny constituency in Rivers State (protect fully). Davies said that, during a visit to his constituency a few days earlier, he had met with "militant" commander Fara Dagogo. He described Fara as the "real leader" of the "military wing" of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). ¶2. (C) Davies said he pressed Fara on what would be needed to get real negotiations started on a settlement to the conflict in the Delta. To this, Fara replied that two elements were key: a halt to the current Nigerian military campaign against the militants in Rivers State; and a release of alleged MEND leader, Henry Okah (currently on trial in Jos for treason, terrorism and arms trafficking). ¶3. (C) Davies was reluctant to pass on more of what he and Fara discussed. He said his own view was that negotiations with MEND, local traditional leaders and other legitimate stakeholders could yield real progress toward a settlement within two to three months. He claimed local people view MEND and other militants as freedom fighters, not criminals, and that, between them, traditional leaders, local communities and militants would easily be able to drive out or hand over the real criminals in very short order if the GON military operations were ended and a settlement were in prospect. ¶4. (C) Davies said the key to a Delta settlement was to deliver development which people in the region could see: roads, schools and particularly jobs. He argued that the way to do this was to increase the derivation percentage (the share of Nigeria's oil and gas revenue which producing states receive up front) from the current 13% to 25%. ¶5. (C) Polcouns replied that the problem was not that the Delta states were not receiving enough money, but that corrupt state politicians were stealing it. He questioned whether doubling the amount of money going to the producing states would accomplish anything unless something was done to assure that the huge amount of funds the state governors were already getting was actually spent to benefit local people. The previous Delta governors were all accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars. Davies leaped to the defense of the previous Governor of Rivers State, Peter Odili, claiming that he was only guilty of lack of attention to what his subordinates were doing. ¶6. (C) Comment: We report Davies comments as being similar to what we have heard from other Delta politicians, but are skeptical of much of what he says here. It remains our sense that MEND is, at best, a loose alliance of militant commanders, along with members of Henry Okah's family who issue after-the-fact claims of responsibility for militant attacks as part of a thinly veiled campaign for Henry's release. While many of the foot-soldiers in the various militant groups are no doubt there because of desperation at their poverty and lack of prospects, we question whether there is any meaningful distinction between "criminal" and "non-criminal" militant leaders. That said, the Delta people have very real grievances about what they see as the exploitation of their region for the benefit of the rest of Nigeria, and (like Davies) tend to view the militants more as Robin Hoods than criminals. Whatever the reality, that perception is very much part of the problem in pursuing a settlement in the Delta. End comment. ¶7. (U) This cable coordinated with Consulate Lagos. Piascik