NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TRIBUNAL MAY CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000183 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION TRIBUNAL MAY CLOSE FEB. 4 REF: 07 ABUJA 2481 Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Closing arguments in the consolidated Atiku/Buhari challenge to Nigeria's April 2007 presidential election will be heard February 4, at which time the justices of the Presidential Election Tribunal will set a date to deliver their verdict. Lawyers for both the petitioners and respondents told PolOffs they expect a verdict by mid-March, after which the losing side is expected to appeal to the Supreme Court. Mike Ahamba, lead counsel for General Buhari, remains confident in the facts of his case and the integrity of the judiciary and maintains that he will win his case at either the Tribunal or on appeal. The atmosphere, including an unsually large police presence and attendance of cabinet-level Nigerian officials, at the court January 28 may be a sign that the GON is growing nervous about the election challenge. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PolOffs attended the January 28 hearing at the Presidential Election Tribunal in the consolidated Action Congress/Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari (of the All Nigeria People's Party, ANPP) challenge to President Yar'Adua's (of the People's Democratic Party, PDP) election. Closing arguments were originally slated to begin at this session, but were delayed by a January 25 Supreme Court ruling, which permitted Atiku's legal team to compel Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu to answer a list of 26 questions about the procurement and delivery of ballot papers for the April 2007 elections. INEC is expected to provide its written answers to the court no later than January 29, after which all parties will file their responses. The next hearing in the matter is set for February 4, at which time closing arguments will be made and the Tribunal will announce a date for delivering judgment. (Note: If Atiku's team feels that INEC's answers are unsatisfactory, they have the right to ask the court to order INEC to provide additional information, which could delay the closing arguments again. However, the judges noted that "the eyes of Nigeria and the international community are on this court" and urged the lawyers not to foot drag in this matter. Emeka Ngige, one of Atiku's lawyers, told PolOffs that Atiku's case was already strong, and he did not anticipate going back to compel INEC to provide additional information. End Note.) ¶3. (C) The atmosphere in and around the Presidential Election Tribunal on January 28 was different than at previous tribunal hearings attended by PolOffs. Full-color posters of President Yar'Adua and Vice President Jonathan with the PDP logo and the phrase "No Going Back" had been hung on every tree and traffic light in the neighborhood of the courthouse. Several hundred PDP supporters (wearing new t-shirts and caps that matched the posters) demonstrated on two corners near the court. The demonstrators were peaceful and appeared to have been brought in on two large buses. There was a heavy security presence; riot police in full gear lined the road to the court and filled its parking lot. General Buhari attended the January 28 hearing, as he normally does, but atypically five government ministers (Minister of Culture, Minister of Education, Minister of Information, Minister of the Interior, and the Minister of State for Energy) along with Inspector General of Police Mike Okiro were in the courtroom. ¶4. (C) After the hearing, PolOffs met privately with Mike Ahamba, lead counsel for Buhari. Ahamba expects the tribunal will conclude on February 4 and anticipates the judges will deliver their verdict by mid-March. Ahamba remains confident that the facts he has submitted about pre- and post-dated result sheets, contradictory result sheets, and other abnormalities will be impossible for the tribunal to ignore. He also noted the continuing trend of state tribunals overturning elections works in his favor, at least psychologically if not as legal precedent. Ahamba cited the example of Benue state, where two PDP senators' elections have been overturned and the third and last (of Senate President David Mark, PDP) may be annulled soon. Ahamba reasons that if all three Senate races, which were conducted ABUJA 00000183 002 OF 002 the same day as the presidential vote, are thrown out, how can the courts have any confidence in Benue's presidential result? Ahamba admitted he has some fear that Justice James Ogebe, chief judge of the tribunal panel, may decide in the GON's favor "to secure himself a Supreme Court seat," but remains confident that even if the Tribunal bows to political pressure, the Supreme Court will find in his favor on appeal and order a new election. In the event of a new presidential poll, Ahamba believes that the Supreme Court would issue clear guidance regarding the process, timeline, and arrangements for interim leadership of the nation in order to maintain stability. ¶5. (C) Comment: As the Presidential Tribunal hearings draw to a close, it is still likely the court will rule in favor of the current government, as was done in 2003. Politics, public opinion, and the desire for stability will play a role in the judges' decision. However, if the government is completely confident it will win the election challenge, we question why they would organize the unusual "political theater" (swarm of riot police, pro-government demonstrators, ministers in the courtroom) at the January 28 hearing. Perhaps the growing number of annulled Senate and gubernatorial elections is having some impact on public opinion, which the government hoped to counteract by flexing its muscle at the tribunal. We expect a tribunal ruling by March, and if (when) the tribunal decision is challenged, a Supreme Court ruling on the appeal soon after (April or May). If a new election is ordered, it must occur within 90 days. Odds are low that such an election will take place, but if it occurs, the current timeline would put it in July or August ¶2008. End Comment. SANDERS