PDP: WINDS OF CHANGE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000178 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: PDP: WINDS OF CHANGE? REF: A. 07 ABUJA 2464 ¶B. 07 ABUJA 2446 ¶C. 07 ABUJA 2377 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political Counselor Walter Pflaumer for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Post reported (reftels) that forces within the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) were hoping to gradually reduce former President Obasanjo's control over the party and his influence on the government, but that steps to reduce his influence had to be taken slowly and gradually. The PDP convention was reportedly postponed from December 2007 due to struggles between pro- and anti-Obasanjo forces within the party (ref A). The National Working Committee (NWC) of the PDP is scheduled to meet January 28, at which time a new date for the party convention will be set. Ahead of this important meeting, there have been a string of negative articles ranging from salacious allegations about Obasanjo's family to reasoned criticisms of policy during his presidency. It appears that the winds of change may be blowing within the PDP. ¶2. (SBU) What began as a trickle of isolated negative articles has now achieved critical mass in the week prior to the PDP NWC meeting. A few of the many examples from this week's press: --"Sex Scandal: OBJ not fit as BOT Chairman- Lar" (front page, Daily Champion, 1/23/08): Founding member of the PDP and former governor Chief Solomon Lar urged the former president to resign from the PDP Board of Trustees due to allegations that Obasanjo commited adultery with the wife of his son Gbenga in exchange for awarding her with lucrative government contracts. --"The Obasanjo Family Mess: Divorce Papers Expose a Randy Ex-President" (The News (weekly magazine),cover story, 1/28/08 edition): Lengthy article spilling dirt from son Gbenga's ugly divorce proceedings. The mud-slinging implies financial improprieties with government contracts by both Gbenga and his estranged wife, with the added soap opera allegation that the wife exchanged sexual favors for contracts. --"Yar'Adua faults Obasanjo on Establishment of Gas Plants" (Thisday, p.6, 1/24/08): Group Managing Director of the NNPC Abubakar Yar'Adua (no relation to the President) told the House of Reps that the former President did not follow due process in establishing gas plants. (Note: this comes after President Yar'Adua complained to the press on January 13 that his predecessor had spent $10 billion on the power sector 2000-2007 and had nothing to show for it. End Note.) --"Obasanjo's 15 Secret Accounts" (cover of Newswatch, weekly magazine, 1/28/08 edition): Discusses the National Assembly's discovery during recent budget deliberations of at least 15 "special accounts" containing billions of naira. The article notes that these funds were put aside during the Obasanjo regime for unspecified purpose but the monies are now being returned to the 2008 budget process. --"U.S. court goes after Senator Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello" (front page, Daily Champion 1/25/08): Article reveals that the former president's daughter is allegedly wanted in North Carolina for violating a court order giving custody over her child to her ex-husband. (Note: This comes on the heels of revelations earlier this month that Iyabo used a false identity in a shady business deal with an Austrian firm to gain GON contracts during her father's administration. End Note.) --"Protestors Pelt Obasanjo with Tomatoes in Ekiti" (front page, Leadership 1/25/08): Article says the ex-president gave a speech in Ekiti on Jan 24, but that his arrival was marred by protestors throwing tomatoes and holding signs that read "EFCC Must Probe OBJ Farm" and "OBJ clear yourself of sex scandal." In his speech, the former president claimed that he had "done his best for Nigeria." --"G-21 Moves Against Obsanjo" (Leadership, p.2, 1/25/08): A group of prominent PDP members, reportedly led by former Senate President Nnamani and including Honorable Farouk Lawan ABUJA 00000178 002 OF 002 (of the Integrity Group) and the father of House Speaker Bankole, have petitioned the PDP NWC to amend the party's constitution on several points, including a change to the clause which makes the former President BOT Chair. ¶3. (C) COMMENT: Former President Obasanjo seems to be on the ropes ahead of next week's PDP NWC meeting. It looks like reform-minded factions within the PDP, including the Integrity Group (ref C),are gaining power within the party, and are seeking to reduce Obasanjo's influence. It is less clear how changes within the ruling party will affect President Yar'Adua, though on the face of it a greater distance between him and his former patron would seem to be a good thing, and might enable his government to prosecute corruption from the previous administration more vigorously. Post will continue to track these intrigues within the ruling party closely. End Comment. SANDERS