NIGERIA: UN ENVOY GAMBARI'S CONCERNS ON NIGER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001248 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2028 TAGS: PGOV PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: UN ENVOY GAMBARI'S CONCERNS ON NIGER DELTA SUMMIT REF: A. (A) ABUJA 1226 ¶B. (B) SILSKI-SANDERS EMAILS Classified By: Ambassador Robin Renee Sanders for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a June 24 late evening meeting with United Nations Special Envoy, Professor Ibrahim Gambari (strictly protect),he told Ambassador that things are "really falling apart" on the Niger Delta Summit, and that it would be impossible to hold meetings in July 2008, or even by year's end given the current lack of serious input, coordination, strategy, and capacity. Gambari met with the Ambassador just after his 3 hour session at the Presidential Villa that included Yar'Adua, Vice President (VP) Jonathan, National Security Advisor Mukhtar, Secretary of the Government of the Federation Kingibe, and others, where a power point on the "strategy" by the VP's office special assistant Achoke (SIC) was presented. Gambari's main points were that he: -- Lamented the total lack of capacity in the VP's office to handle the issue; -- Was embarrassed by the document prepared by the UNDP office in Abuja on the Niger Delta; -- Would be moving in a "delicate manner" in the direction of pushing the Summit back either to year's end or later depending how his goal to reformulate preparations proceed; and, -- Would need someone that he has confidence in coming from the UN system to coordinate daily activities on preparations. Gambari also advised of his June 24 press statement where he stressed the objectives of his role in the Consultative Steering Committee (CSC),highlighting that input on the Delta would involve all stakeholders. He asked the Ambassador to keep his counsel on his concerns as he regarded himself in a "delicate position" given the role of the VP and his office in the shoddy preparation of a Niger Delta strategy. Gambari has his work cut out for him not only on postponing the summit but on stakeholder buy-in. The GON is certainly not prepared to execute a summit in July. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As regards to President Yar'Adua's reaction to the current state of play and the poor performance by the VP and his office, Gambari said that President Yar'Adua "hit the roof and was furious" with the VP and his office after the weak substance in the power point presentation on June 24. Gambari added the UNDP-Abuja document that served as a "basis" for some of the work the VP's office had done was "poorly constructed," and did not reflect any input from stakeholders. The UN Envoy noted that he foresaw (at least for now),moving forward with stakeholder meetings, preparatory committees, dialogue with the militants, public diplomacy with periodic press conferences, and keeping the international partners in Abuja informed. "As of now," Gambari explained, "there is no-buy on a Summit or the CSC from the key players in the region. He also wondered if the Ambassador had any ideas on getting stakeholders engaged. The Ambassador noted the recent efforts and processes by the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) on public hearings and proffered letters, as something that the UN Envoy would want to look at to give him ideas on how to get more stakeholder buy-in as this approach -- although very late and slow in take-off -- has recently garnered improved respect for the ERC in some quarters. ¶3. (C) Ambassador then asked Gambari about his standing with Niger Delta stakeholder groups given press reports about his role in the Ken Saro-Wiwa issues and what kind of challenges this poses for his role in the CSC? Gambari said flatly that, "he did not ask for or want this job," but that he will do his best to put some structure and intellectual property into the process so that there is a transparent framework -- both on structure and documentation -- that has buy-in from stakeholders and militants. However, he will not allow his integrity to be disrespected in the process, he noted. ABUJA 00001248 002 OF 002 Ambassador told Gambari about the current efforts by the local UNDP office to discuss its role in the working documents submitted to the VP's office on the Niger Delta issues, and that she would be attending their meeting on June ¶27. She also noted that she had made an effort to pull together a luncheon that included the UK High Commission, and the UNDP and World Bank (WB) Country Representatives, but UNDP had not wanted to include the World Bank in any sort of meetings. Gambari said any dialogue should be as inclusive as possible and that the WB was certainly an important player, restating his "embarrassment regarding the quality of the Abuja-UNDP input for the documents." ¶4. (C) Gambari asked the Ambassador whether she had any suggestions on strategy in addition to his discussions recently in Washington. She said no as he was already aware of USG policy views on the need for a framework to address the real political and development issues, but added that there also needed to be some way for the international partners to support and help the process. She added that many of us on the ground believed we had offered assistance in various ways (including under GGESS),but there has hardly been any response from the GON -- leaving many partners to believe the GGESS process to be defunct, or certainly with out senior political buy-in. The Ambassador noted that one of the biggest challenges is to find some way to get buy-in from the militants. Gambari took note of this, said he would return to Nigeria in about 10 days, and would check back in with the Ambassador at that time to let her know of his progress, including putting in the building blocks to get the Summit officially put off until such time as it can be done right. Ambassador asked about Yar'Adua's stamina and health-related appearance during the 3-hour meeting? Gambari noted that Yar'Adua certainly showed control over the entire 3-hour session, including being furious at the VP. ¶5. (C) Comment: Overall, the policy platform for the Niger Delta Summit is a mess. We had already heard reports on the unhappiness of President Yar'Adua with his Vice President on a number of issues, with his leadership on the Niger Delta being at the top of the list. Ref A notes points by our UNDP contact on the ground on the agency's concerns about the current working document that it had some attendant role in providing input to, although we recognize that the document presented to Yar'Adua could or could not have included UNDP-Abuja's points. The main issue, however, is that Nigeria's leadership is not in a position to move forward with a Niger Delta Summit or establish a competent CSC. Gambari's first role will be to ensure that the membership of the CSC is capable of doing the groundwork he believes needs to be done, choosing a daily coordinator, and then getting stakeholders, including the militants, buy-in. We doubt that there will be a Niger Delta summit in July, however, to save face despite the problems the GON may proceed anyway. End comment. SANDERS