NIGERIA: MILITARY OFFICIAL ON POLITICS, YAR'ADUA'S

S E C R E T ABUJA 001058

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA
DOE FOR GEORGE PERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2018
TAGS: MOPS PGOV GV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MILITARY OFFICIAL ON POLITICS, YAR'ADUA'S
HEALTH, ECOWAS

REF: A. ABUJA 183

B. ABUJA 962

C. CONAKRY 224 ET AL

D. TD-314/042365-08

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Heather Merritt for reasons 1
.4. (b & d).


1. (C) On May 29, 2008, Poloff spoke to Air Vice Marshal
Christian Marizu (protect),Director of Policy and Planning
for the Office of the Chief of Defense Staff, about his
perception of the military's views on Nigerian politics and
regional affairs. According to Marizu, the likelihood of
military intervention in Nigerian politics in the near- to
mid-term is very low. Citing extensive professionalization
and re-education efforts in recent years, Marizu dismissed
recent press accounts which claimed that dissatisfaction
brewing in certain military circles about perceptions of high
level corruption, poor living conditions, and the deaths of
forty-six soldiers returning from Darfur in a road accident
could result in a coup. However, he assessed that there is a
slight possibility of military reaction (Note: In Post's
opinion this is more likely to be a restoration of order in
the face of public unrest rather than a coup. End note.) in
politics should a worst-case scenario develop in which
President Yar'Adua suddenly dies or is incapacitated, as
Vice-President Goodluck Jonathan is widely believed to be too
incompetent to be an effective president. But he hastily
added that, given the military's overall satisfaction with
the President's handling of a crisis over back pay (reftel
A),and a general approval of the direction the nation
appears to be heading, this is indeed a remote possibility.
Marizu also predicted that, due to political expediency,
Yar'Adua's election would be affirmed by the Supreme Court's
July or August decision.


2. (C) Marizu made an off-the-cuff statement while discussing
Yar'Adua's recent emergency medical treatment in Germany
(reftel B) that the President's health condition might be
more serious than the government publicly admits. Marizu
explained that he has attended more than one meeting during
which the President had to suddenly leave, ostensibly for
reasons of poor health.


3. (C) Regarding recent unrest, including a military mutiny,
in Guinea (reftel C),Marizu mentioned that ECOWAS was
planning some sort of offer of assistance to Guinea which
would include dialogue on possible next steps, with Nigeria
playing a lead role. He declined, however, to elaborate
further, as to the exact nature of such an offer, or even if
Guinea had requested ECOWAS' help. (Note: Post has since
confirmed with ECOWAS sources that an assessment mission to
Conkary, led by former Nigerian president Ibrahim Babangida,
is indeed planned in the near future. End note.)


4. (S//NF) COMMENT: Marizu reports directly to Chief of
Defense Staff Owoye Azazi, and is well-positioned to speak on
the abovementioned subjects. Although military morale has
been recently shaken by the deaths of the soldiers and
squabbles about back pay, and both Defense Minister Yayale
Ahmed and House of Representatives Defense Committee Chair
Oluwole Oke have publicly commented on their worries about
insubordination in the ranks resulting from anger over the
abovementioned problems, Post agrees with Marizu's assessment
that at present a military coup is not a likely scenario
(also see reftel D).
SANDERS