(C) KOUCHNER VISIT SIGNALS WARMING RELATIONSHIP,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000398

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV IV FR
SUBJECT: (C) KOUCHNER VISIT SIGNALS WARMING RELATIONSHIP,
BUT NO THAW UNTIL ELECTIONS

Classified By: POL/ECON SECTION CHIEF SILVIA EIRIZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D
)


1. (C) Summary. The June 14-15 visit of French Foreign
Minister Bernard Kouchner to Cote d'Ivoire is a signal of
warmer bilateral relations, but full normalization will not
occur until Ivorian presidential elections are held.
Kouchner told President Gbagbo that France will work with
whichever candidate wins an election that is certified as
free and fair. While Kouchner said France hopes the
scheduled November 30 date for the presidential election will
be observed, the French Embassy has concerns that both
technical challenges and a lack of political will may force a
postponement. End Summary.


2. (C) French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner visited Cote
d'Ivoire June 14-15. His visit, which received widespread
media coverage, was interpreted by Ivorians as a sign that
the once-troubled bilateral relationship has normalized.
French Embassy Political Counselor DeGardin told Pol/Econ
Section Chief that there has been a genuine "warming" in the
bilateral relationship, but that to date it has mostly been
limited to the economic arena. DeGardin explained that the
Kouchner visit signaled the normalization of diplomatic
relations. She added that the bilateral political
relationship will not fully return to normal until there is a
meeting of the heads of state and France will delay such a
meeting until after Cote d'Ivoire holds presidential
elections. Kouchner said this publicly when asked by
journalists if a meeting between Presidents Sarkozy and
Gbagbo was planned. According to DeGardin, the French view
towards Cote d'Ivoire is that the events of 2004 cannot be
forgotten, but that France must look ahead regarding the
bilateral relationship.


3. (C) According to the French Embassy, Kouchner told
President Gbagbo that France will work with whomever is
elected president in elections that are certified to be fair
and transparent. DeGardin said Prime Minister Soro told
Kouchner that the only obstacle to full implementation of the
Ouagadougou Political Agreement (OPA) is lack of funding.
French Emboff noted that the Government of Cote d'Ivoire can
identify funding for events it deems important such as
hosting the G-77 High Level Conference on South-South
Cooperation on June 10-13 in the political capital of
Yamoussoukro.


4. (C) Minister Kouchner stated publicly that France hopes
Cote d'Ivoire will hold presidential elections as scheduled
on November 30. The French Embassy, however, is concerned
that the election may have to be delayed for technical
reasons. DeGardin said that while French company Sagem,
which will produce voter and national identity cards, is
ready to start work, the government entities responsible for
identification and voter registration are not. French Emboff
said that if the identification process does not begin by
mid-July, elections cannot be held on November 30. The
French Embassy is concerned that the government will use
Sagem as a scapegoat if a delay in the elections becomes
inevitable. DeGardin believes Ivorians will accept a delay
if technical reasons are cited and if another relatively not
too distant date is immediately identified.


5. (C) The French Embassy is also concerned that the
political will necessary to stick to the November 30 date may
be weakening. French Emboff said Gbagbo is not as confident
as he was that he can win and that public demonstrations in
early April against rising food prices contributed to his
unease. The French Embassy believes Gbagbo could use a lack
of security as an excuse for delaying the elections. French
Emboff noted that demonstrations like the one on June 16 in
Bouake by demobilized Forces Nouvelles ex-combatants
protesting lack of payment of their demobilization package
may become more commonplace. The French Ambassador had told
Prime Minister Soro not to promise funding to demobilized
Forces Nouvelles unless the availability of the funding was
assured. The French Embassy is also concerned by ongoing
training of militias.


6. (C) Comment. The unease expressed by the French is shared
by many in Cote d'Ivoire who fear the security environment
will pose real risks to the elections. There is widespread
belief that if Gbagbo feels that he cannot win the election
or manipulate the results to secure his win, all bets are off
for November 30 elections. End Comment.
NESBITT