(C) KOUCHNER VISIT SIGNALS WARMING RELATIONSHIP,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000398 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV IV FR SUBJECT: (C) KOUCHNER VISIT SIGNALS WARMING RELATIONSHIP, BUT NO THAW UNTIL ELECTIONS Classified By: POL/ECON SECTION CHIEF SILVIA EIRIZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B/D ) ¶1. (C) Summary. The June 14-15 visit of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to Cote d'Ivoire is a signal of warmer bilateral relations, but full normalization will not occur until Ivorian presidential elections are held. Kouchner told President Gbagbo that France will work with whichever candidate wins an election that is certified as free and fair. While Kouchner said France hopes the scheduled November 30 date for the presidential election will be observed, the French Embassy has concerns that both technical challenges and a lack of political will may force a postponement. End Summary. ¶2. (C) French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner visited Cote d'Ivoire June 14-15. His visit, which received widespread media coverage, was interpreted by Ivorians as a sign that the once-troubled bilateral relationship has normalized. French Embassy Political Counselor DeGardin told Pol/Econ Section Chief that there has been a genuine "warming" in the bilateral relationship, but that to date it has mostly been limited to the economic arena. DeGardin explained that the Kouchner visit signaled the normalization of diplomatic relations. She added that the bilateral political relationship will not fully return to normal until there is a meeting of the heads of state and France will delay such a meeting until after Cote d'Ivoire holds presidential elections. Kouchner said this publicly when asked by journalists if a meeting between Presidents Sarkozy and Gbagbo was planned. According to DeGardin, the French view towards Cote d'Ivoire is that the events of 2004 cannot be forgotten, but that France must look ahead regarding the bilateral relationship. ¶3. (C) According to the French Embassy, Kouchner told President Gbagbo that France will work with whomever is elected president in elections that are certified to be fair and transparent. DeGardin said Prime Minister Soro told Kouchner that the only obstacle to full implementation of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement (OPA) is lack of funding. French Emboff noted that the Government of Cote d'Ivoire can identify funding for events it deems important such as hosting the G-77 High Level Conference on South-South Cooperation on June 10-13 in the political capital of Yamoussoukro. ¶4. (C) Minister Kouchner stated publicly that France hopes Cote d'Ivoire will hold presidential elections as scheduled on November 30. The French Embassy, however, is concerned that the election may have to be delayed for technical reasons. DeGardin said that while French company Sagem, which will produce voter and national identity cards, is ready to start work, the government entities responsible for identification and voter registration are not. French Emboff said that if the identification process does not begin by mid-July, elections cannot be held on November 30. The French Embassy is concerned that the government will use Sagem as a scapegoat if a delay in the elections becomes inevitable. DeGardin believes Ivorians will accept a delay if technical reasons are cited and if another relatively not too distant date is immediately identified. ¶5. (C) The French Embassy is also concerned that the political will necessary to stick to the November 30 date may be weakening. French Emboff said Gbagbo is not as confident as he was that he can win and that public demonstrations in early April against rising food prices contributed to his unease. The French Embassy believes Gbagbo could use a lack of security as an excuse for delaying the elections. French Emboff noted that demonstrations like the one on June 16 in Bouake by demobilized Forces Nouvelles ex-combatants protesting lack of payment of their demobilization package may become more commonplace. The French Ambassador had told Prime Minister Soro not to promise funding to demobilized Forces Nouvelles unless the availability of the funding was assured. The French Embassy is also concerned by ongoing training of militias. ¶6. (C) Comment. The unease expressed by the French is shared by many in Cote d'Ivoire who fear the security environment will pose real risks to the elections. There is widespread belief that if Gbagbo feels that he cannot win the election or manipulate the results to secure his win, all bets are off for November 30 elections. End Comment. NESBITT