OBSERVANCE OF NOVEMBER 30 ELECTION DATE FEASIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000337 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2018 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL EAID IV SUBJECT: OBSERVANCE OF NOVEMBER 30 ELECTION DATE FEASIBLE BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN REF: A. ABIDJAN 290 ¶B. ABIDJAN 192 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Silvia Eiriz for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. AF/W Director Thomas Dougherty held meetings in Abidjan May 15-16 with representatives from across Cote d'Ivoire's political spectrum. His conversations indicate that the political will exists to observe the scheduled November 30 election date and that it is technically feasible to do so, if all parties respect the current electoral calendar. However, ensuring security for the election and clarifying the relationship among the bodies responsible for organizing it, remain challenges. End Summary. Political Will Exists -------------- ¶2. (SBU) All political actors and parties told Dougherty that they want the November 30 date for presidential elections to be respected. Pascale Affi N'Guessan, President of the governing FPI party, said his party has an interest in holding elections since the public blames it for the country's problems even though it is not effectively in control of the current power sharing government. Opposition PDCI party elections point person, Mamadou Bamba, told Dougherty that the PDCI would understand a delay in the election to complete ongoing identification and voter registration, but would have difficulty accepting a delay because the government had failed to even begin these processes. Opposition RDR also expressed strong desire to hold elections this year, but had concerns about publication of the electoral lists in enough time for the parties to comment. Identification and Voter Registration Must Begin Soon -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Ambassador Boureima Badini, Representative of the Facilitator of the Ouagadougou Political Agreement (OPA), told Dougherty that the November 30 date can be met as long as the identification process begins by June 10. Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) President Robert Beugre Mambe said reconstitution of destroyed civil registries, necessary to permit many to obtain the birth certificates needed to register to vote, would begin the week of May 19 and run through mid September. (Comment: Constitution of the civil registries began on May 21. End comment.) ¶4. (C) N'Guessan expressed reservations about the technical capacity of French company Sagem, which will produce the voter registration and national identity cards. He reiterated the FPI view that Cote d'Ivoire's INS (Institut National de la Statistique) is fully capable of registering voters and speculated that Sagem's lack of experience could negatively impact the process. Badini assured Dougherty that Sagem is capable of carrying out its work by November 30. Several interlocutors expressed concern that Sagem had not begun its work because it had not received payment from the government. Badini noted, however, that Sagem has already brought in its kits. (Note: The government paid Sagem an initial tranche of 10 billion CFA on May 27, that should originally have been paid in April but still owes 10 billion CFA promised by the end of May.) ¶5. (C) RDR expressed its frustration with what they perceive as efforts by Minister of Interior Tagro to add bureaucratic delays to producing the electoral lists. According to the RDR, Tagro wants to compare the 2000 electoral lists with the names on the workers' list for social security benefits. The RDR representative commented that "nationality should be determined by law and not by a list." RDR also underscored the fact that tension still exists over the issue of Ivoirite, implying that Tagro wants to ignore or discount this issue. Roles of Electoral Bodies Unclear -------------- ¶6. (C) Both Mambe and Badini expressed concern that the government may not provide sufficient funding to the CEI to enable it to effectively carry out its mandate. N'Guessan told Dougherty that the FPI is worried about the CEI's neutrality since most of its members are aligned with the political opposition, adding that the FPI will use its representatives on the CEI to ensure its actions are transparent and objective. Badini confirmed to Dougherty ABIDJAN 00000337 002 OF 002 that approximately eighty percent of the CEI's members are affiliated with the opposition political parties. ¶7. (C) It is still not clear how Sagem and the National Institute of Statistics (INS) will work together (See Reftels). The President's FPI party remains reluctant to accept that the INS, which the political opposition accuses of being partisan, will not have a supervisory role over Sagem. N'Guessan told Dougherty that charges that the INS favors the FPI are unfounded since only two INS officials were appointed by President Gbagbo. Mambe told Dougherty that he had convened several meetings with Sagem and INS to hammer out the details of their working relationship. This remains unresolved and could create a stumbling block for meeting the soon-to-be tight timeline for elections. Security Is A Concern -------------- ¶8. (C) One of the five elements of UNOCI's framework for election certification is a secure environment during the period leading to the election that will allow full participation of the population and the candidates. N'Guessan told Dougherty that he is less worried about election security than about Sagem's technical abilities. However, the PDCI and RDR representatives expressed identical concerns about insecurity in the west hampering the electoral process in that region. Bamba said transparent elections are not possible if armed groups supporting a particular political party continue to exist. He added that since voters have historically been impeded from going to the polls in the west, the PDCI wants measures enacted to prevent this from happening. ¶9. (C) Badini told Dougherty that Prime Minister Soro has agreed to meet with the militias, adding that Soro needs an incentive to convince them to disarm. Badini said there have already been incidents where the public's access to local CEI offices has been blocked and that he believes there will be attempts to prevent citizens from registering to vote. Mambe said he would meet with the military leaders of the army, the New Forces, and UNOCI as well as with the Minister of Defense to discuss electoral security. Need International Observers -------------- ¶10. (C) Mambe and Badini called for the presence of international observers and urged that they arrive early in order to monitor the process leading to election day. Mambe, who told Dougherty that he would like former President Jimmy Carter to come, said the observers should be present during the process of challenges to the electoral list. Badini told Dougherty that, while the election will generally be an open one, it won't be one hundred percent transparent. He said the OPA Facilitator will have an arbitration role during the election process and advised that his office will set up a unit to coordinate with the United Nations Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI). NESBITT