AMBASSADOR MEETS AFDB PRESIDENT KABERUKA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000171

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W PLUMB, AF/EPS REPKO, EEB DIZOGLIO
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USTR C.HAMILTON
DEPARTMENT PASS TO USAID S.SWIFT, C.GARRETT
ACCRA FOR USAID P.RICHARDSON, K.MCCOWAN
DAKAR FOR FAS R.HANSON, FCS S.MORRISON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2018
TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PREL IBRD IMF AFDB IV
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS AFDB PRESIDENT KABERUKA,
DISCUSSES HEADQUARTERS, ELECTIONS TIMETABLE

Classified By: EconChief EMassinga, Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Ambassador met with African Development
Bank (AfDB) President Donald Kaberuka on February 28th during
the latter's swing through Abidjan to sign a $25 million post
conflict grant and ahead of an AfDB delegation trip to
Abidjan by Members of the Bank's Board of Directors.
Kaberuka discussed the prospects of a move back to Abidjan
from AfDB's temporary headquarters in Tunis, as well as
political developments in Cote d'Ivoire. Kaberuka was keenly
interested in the USG's analysis of the political situation
and expressed concern about a repetition of Kenya-style
elections-related violence. End Summary.

The AfDB Headquarters Decision
--------------


2. (C) Bank President Kaberuka confirmed that the bank was
gathering data for a special meeting to be held in Mozambique
which will address the permanent headquarters question. He
called the decision a very delicate issue which had to be
handled carefully but agreed that the "temporary" move to
Tunis has lasted far beyond anyone's expectations.
Ambassador reiterated the USG position, i.e. that the bank
needs to return to sub-Saharan Africa as soon as possible,
and that if a return to Abidjan is not viable the Bank should
take steps to identify a new location. Kaberuka acknowledged
the USG position but stressed the need to take into account
the views of all of the Bank's stakeholders.


3. (C) The AfDB chief described three viewpoints on the Bank
Board in the debate over the permanent headquarters question.
One faction comprises a majority of African states and
favors the status quo, i.e., deferring a decision until after
elections. This group is lead by South Africa and the ECOWAS
states. A second faction comprises most of the European
members who believe that African views on what to do about
the AfDB should be given primacy. This group is prepared to
accept a delay in making a decision and extending the Bank's
stay in Tunis if this is what a majority of Africans prefer.
The third faction comprises the USG and others who believe
that the current state of uncertainty needs to be resolved.
Kaberuka said that an idea that is gaining currency is to
extend the Bank's temporary lease in Tunis for two years and
have members agree that a firm decision about the
headquarters location will be taken at that time. He seemed
to think that this view would prevail.

Elections
--------------

4. (C) Kaberuka and Ambassador also discussed the current
situation in Cote d'Ivoire, with the AfDB Bank President
soliciting Embassy views on the presidential election.
Ambassador replied that the political will to hold elections
seems to be sufficient; the political parties all agree that
elections are needed to resolve the crisis, but critical
issues remain unresolved. If elections are held this year
they will likely be in the October timeframe. Kaberuka asked
if technical problems associated with getting the
identification card contractor SAGEM fully deployed would
delay a vote, even if
President Gbagbo wants elections by October. The Ambassador
replied that it was possible that the technical requirements
could take longer to put in place than the political
leadership realizes.


5. (C) Ambassador noted that the pre-electoral period is
critical. If a transparent electoral process can be
established and is accepted by all parties, it will be as
great a success as the elections themselves. Ambassador said
she thought it was important for the international community
during this period to support the independence of the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI). Kaberuka and the
Ambassador agreed that should manipulation of the vote be
widespread, the likelihood of violence would be greater. The
"Forces Nouvelles" are reluctant to disarm precisely to
retain the capacity to retaliate if they see massive
electoral fraud. Raising the subject of threats to the
elections, Kaberuka asked about the current role of militias,
both in the west and in the Abidjan environs. Ambassador
replied that this an area where clear information is lacking,
particularly about the extent to which the Presidential camp
is providing support for these groups.


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6. (C) Kaberuka noted that elections will be expensive, and
asserted the costs for SAGEM's services alone will be over
USD 100 million. He asked if the "donor community" would be
willing to step up and help cover some of these costs.
Ambassador replied that the donor community believes that the
international community has already been generous, and that
concerns related to transparency are real and genuine. The
AfDB chief said he would be discussing this very point with
President Gbagbo, Prime Minister Soro and his IMF and World
Bank colleagues as they negotiate a package of external and
internal resources to "make the numbers add up" and to ensure
a transparent election.



7. (C) Comment. Kaberuka's preoccupation with the
direction of the political dynamic in Cote d'Ivoire is
clearly linked to the question of the Bank's permanent
headquarters. He seemed to share the sentiments of the
African faction he described as wanting to defer a decision
and was acutely aware of the fact that any decision the bank
takes will have political ramifications in Cote d'Ivoire.
Post will report septel on the March 10-11 visit to Abidjan
of AfDB Board Members. End comment.
NESBITT